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MotoGP

Forecast puts Bagnaia at risk of title blow he can’t afford

by Simon Patterson, Valentin Khorounzhiy
3 min read

until Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League

MotoGP championship contender Pecco Bagnaia is facing yet another tough weekend ahead only days after crashing out at the Japanese Grand Prix, as the weather forecast in Thailand looks set to deliver the same tricky conditions he struggled in at Motegi this weekend at Buriram, potentially derailing his hopes of closing down Fabio Quartararo’s lead with only four rounds remaining.

Bagnaia, who crashed out while trying to overtake the Frenchman late in the race last weekend, now sits 18 points adrift, and needs to start closing down the lead sooner rather than later with only 100 points still available before the season concludes at Valencia.

But, with he Italian having lamented last weekend’s performances in the wet after a qualifying session at Motegi that saw him a distant 12th on the grid as “unacceptable”, the weather forecast for the first Thai race since 2019 won’t be filling Bagnaia with much hope that this weekend will be the chance to turn things around.

That poor wet performance isn’t something that only appeared at the Japanese race, either, with Bagnaia struggling in every wet session so far this year to find any form. In the sole wet race of the season, the Indonesian Grand Prix, he had finished only 15th.

Francesco Bagnaia Ducati MotoGP

But, facing a forecast that so far predicts a high chance of rain in every session of the weekend including for Sunday’s race (thanks to an earlier-than-ever race date that places this year’s round firmly within the rainy season), he knows that he and his team are going to have to attempt to address it before it ends all hopes of Bagnaia lifting Ducati’s first riders’ championship since 2007.

“Compared to last year,” he explained in the pre-event press conference, “the only thing that has changed is the balance of our bike, and maybe it’s for that reason that we’re struggling more.

“But the difficult thing is that we didn’t have so many wet sessions throughout the year.

“When we arrived to Japan, I didn’t have this feeling because I couldn’t feel the tyres. In this situation, I struggle more, but I think that the team has some good ideas to let me feel more the movement, more the transfer of the grip, and we’ll be better here for sure.”

Francesco Bagnaia Ducati MotoGP

However, the belief that it might be something triggered by the 2022 Ducati Desmosedici rather than by something specific to Bagnaia’s style or setting was dismissed by team-mate Jack Miller when The Race asked the Australian if he had faced similar issues with the bike this year.

Fighting against eventual race winner Miguel Oliveira for the victory at Mandalika while Bagnaia could only manage a single point, Miller’s traditionally-strong wet weather performances have remained.

“For me in the wet the bike still works really good,” he insisted. “Every time we’ve had wet conditions I’ve been able to be there or thereabouts. I was fighting for the victory in Indo[nesia] very early on in the season, and I lost a little bit of time towards the end of the race but that was more to do with our set-up than anything else.

“In Motegi it was a strange one in the afternoon [Miller qualified seventh], but in the morning [practice] I was extremely fast on used tyres. Marc [Marquez] did his [session-topping] laptime at pretty much the perfect time, but I wasn’t too far off him even though it was raining a bit more by then.

Jack Miller Ducati MotoGP

“It wasn’t great for me but the bike was working fantastically.

“It wasn’t a disaster. I’m not really having too many issues in the wet, and as for Pecco I’m not really sure how he’s doing but I’m sure that they’ll sort it out.”

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