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Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown. So, Toto Wolff, Lewis Hamilton and their Mercedes colleagues can be forgiven for a few sleepless nights over the last five or six years.
But that’s of little comfort to those hoping for a changing of the guard but instead bracing themselves for another Formula 1 season of Mercedes dominance.
A bit more variety at the front would be nice but this is down to Mercedes’ rivals to make it happen, not for the team to adopt a negligent approach for the sake of the championship.
And while Mercedes urging caution about its prospects may seem like pandering to the audience, there are two reasons to take the team at its word.
First, it’s a show of respect of the job it is doing to acknowledge that Mercedes’ ongoing success and seemingly easy weekends are the result of relentless focus, preparation and hard work.
Second, the risks really are there. Mercedes could trip up at any moment. Those in positions of power are never far from a threat, either internally – through complacency and letting their guard down – or externally from challengers that seek the throne.
In Mercedes’ case in 2020, this is not taking its gearbox fix after the Austrian Grand Prix for granted, being mindful of a potential weakness in high temperatures, and respecting the threat posed by a team like Red Bull, which has started the season in erratic form.
“Anyone who had sat with us through the first weekend of the year wouldn’t have entertained the idea of a Mercedes procession at that stage,” says Mercedes technical director James Allison, referring to the gearbox sensor issue that threatened to kill both its cars in the season opener.
“They would have seen us all desperately worried about the car and its ability to finish a single race.
“Every car on the grid has a sword of Damocles hanging over it every lap.
“They’re all experimental vehicles with any number of ways they can catch you out or disappoint, or actually disappoint yourself for not having seen it coming.
“So it will never feel like that from within a team because we are only too well aware of the billion frailties that are there.”
Whatever the threat, Mercedes isn’t discounting it. Allison says it’s “way too early to be thinking or talking” in terms of a processional season
Allison is one of modern F1’s great orators, so it’s no surprise to see him reference the sword of Damocles. That, and William Shakespeare’s line from Henry IV that shamelessly opens this piece, is a great representation of the permanent state of fear that accompanies those in powerful and, seemingly, extremely fortunate positions.
The sword of Damocles is a story of a ruler trading places with a courtier but forcing them to live their brief time on the throne with a sword dangling above by a single horse tail hair.
It tells a powerful message and one that is perfectly transferable to Mercedes’ position in F1: getting on top is one challenge, staying there and managing the threats is another, conducted with a constant threat of peril.
“If we will take the 2020 season for granted as a walk in the park and it’s basically just about picking up the trophy in Paris in December, we wouldn’t have won these past championships,” insists Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff.
“So, there’s not one fibre in us that thinks that this championship is done. It’s something that can really catch you out.”
Mercedes has started its bid for another title double in perfect fashion but there are different circumstances to come and choices to be made that will determine its fortunes this year, and beyond.
That could be Red Bull’s aerodynamic imbalance, which has so far hobbled Max Verstappen, being quickly addressed and turning the RB16 into a pole and victory contender with 10, 12 or 15 races left to run.
It could be Mercedes being flattered by cooler conditions in Hungary and poised to struggle over the next few races when temperatures are warmer.
Or it could be how it divides up its priorities on aero development over the rest of 2020 and for 2021, before focusing on new 2022 technical rules from early next year.
Whatever the threat, Mercedes isn’t discounting it. Allison says it’s “way too early to be thinking or talking” in terms of a processional season.
“We’ve had two quite cool tracks so far,” he says.
“It was warmish in the first race of the year, but it was also the race we were the least convincing.
“So we would like to find out just how swift we can be when the track is roasting hot and whether or not we can still show the tyre management and pace under those conditions that we’ve been lucky enough to show in the opening races of the year.”
And though Mercedes does have an impressive points advantage, one that Red Bull acknowledges will rapidly become almost impossible to overcome, Allison is wary that Mercedes does appear more vulnerable on race day than it does in qualifying. And that’s where the points come from.
“We are a sneak ahead than we were in the overall power of the team this year than we were the year before,” he admits.
“However, I would say that might be more to do with the competition having a little bit of a tougher time rather than us having done something remarkable.
“Normally you can fix something that has gone a little bit wrong, and so the gap might be big now, but it will close down very quickly if that sort of snappiness that you sometimes see on a Red Bull can be softened.”
Red Bull would have been optimistic of taking points off Mercedes in Austria and Hungary before heading to Silverstone, a Mercedes stronghold.
Instead, its “snappiness” means Mercedes has already racked up a major advantage before returning to the scene of seven straight pole positions, and five victories in the last six races.
Mercedes’ rivals must be thinking a touch of complacency combined with some divine intervention would be good for the show and for their prospects
And now Mercedes’ car is better in the high-speed stuff than ever.
“Well, we are looking forward to it, but anyone that’s been doing this for a little while will remember times when they thought ‘I can’t wait to go, blah, blah, blah, we’re really gonna show them’ and then you get there and you don’t quite deliver everything you hoped,” says Allison.
“And it’s a very depressing experience, having got your hopes sky-high.
“Most things about the car would make me feel that Silverstone will be a track that will be pretty special for it, but it feels very sort of fate tempting to say something like that.”
Fate has always seemed to smile kindly on Mercedes, though it did intervene at the British GP in 2018 when Hamilton was punted into a spin, dropped to the back, and the race went in Ferrari’s favour.
The brilliance of a team like Mercedes is it controls as many variables as possible. If something does develop outside its control that’s a punch it has to roll with.
With this approach, though, those punches are kept to a minimum. But the threat is still there.
Mercedes’ rivals must be thinking a touch of complacency combined with some divine intervention would be good for the show and for their prospects. The emphasis is on those teams to do a better job, just like it is on Mercedes to be aware that serious threats do remain.
A sword’s been dangling precariously above Mercedes for many years. It might feel like the thread it’s hanging by is getting stronger, not weaker.
But it’s still there, and could fall at any moment.
