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Formula 1’s 2020 drivers’ and constructors’ championship battles are settled. Which is no surprise at all, as they’ve looked destined for Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes from the outset.
But there’s been nothing predictable whatsoever about the ‘best of the rest’ fights.
For the drivers, that’s to be fourth behind the Mercedes pair and Max Verstappen. For constructors, it’s for best in Mercedes and Red Bull’s wake.
Though far less significant to the wider world, these battles offer the openness and unpredictability that the front of the field hasn’t for too long now.
With 78 points still on the table, Sergio Perez holds fourth in the drivers’ table by just three points over Charles Leclerc and four over Daniel Ricciardo, with a host of others in range.
Drivers’ battle
4 Sergio Perez 100
5 Charles Leclerc 97
6 Daniel Ricciardo 96
7 Carlos Sainz Jr 75
8 Lando Norris 74
9 Alex Albon 70
10 Pierre Gasly 63
11 Lance Stroll 59
In the constructors’, there are 132 points available (though expect most of those to go to Mercedes!) and Racing Point is just five clear of McLaren.
Constructors’ battle
3 Racing Point 154
4 McLaren 149
5 Renault 136
6 Ferrari 130
Who’ll come out on top? Here are our predictions:
RACING POINT HAS THE BEST PACKAGE
Edd Straw
Driver – Sergio Perez: Not only does Perez hold fourth in the drivers’ championship, but he’s also there despite missing two races to COVID-19.
The only driver other than Hamilton to score in every race and a dependable performer on race day, he can realistically be expected to finish in the top six in each of the final three grands prix and has the most consistent midfield package on his side.
Team – Racing Point: Racing Point has the strongest all-round car in the midfield and would be in a more comfortable third place but for the 15-point deduction for illegally-designed brake ducts.
Not only is the car quick, but it’s also reliable and looks after the tyres well, so should be able to take the heaviest points score over the final three races.
NEVER UNDERESTIMATE RICCIARDO
Lucy Morson
Driver – Daniel Ricciardo: Renault sporting director Alan Permane recently joked that he’s told Daniel Ricciardo there’s still time to change his mind before he departs for McLaren in 2021, in case Renault’s recent upturn in form has given him cold feet.
In reality, I think Ricciardo will close the Renault chapter of his career by securing fourth in the drivers’ championship thanks to an impressive run which has proved his team leadership credentials once and for all.
Team – Racing Point: At winter testing, Racing Point’s prospects were the most tantalising of the whole field when it became clear the team had made a major step up over the winter with its Mercedes-inspired design tactics.
To say the rest of the year has played out rather more hit and miss is an understatement and the lost opportunities the team has suffered mean it’s lucky to still be clinging on to third place.
I think it will just be possible to hold onto the end though – and the outgoing Perez driving furiously for a Red Bull chance and his Formula 1 future will no doubt help that endeavour.
NOT FERRARI
Scott Mitchell
Driver – Sergio Perez: I think it’ll come down to Perez vs Ricciardo as Ferrari’s straightline speed deficit will hurt a bit more in the Middle East because of the Bahrain/Abu Dhabi layouts.
Based on Racing Point’s performance at the last few events, I expect Perez to be a top-five contender at each of the remaining three races. Convert a couple of those and bank points in the other and he should see off Ricciardo in a straight fight.
Albon can theoretically overcome a 30-point deficit, but even if he finishes where he should be (fourth) each time he’s relying on those in front having a stinker.
Given Perez is the only full-time driver alongside Hamilton to bank points in every race he’s started, I can’t see the Mexican tripping up like that when it matters.
Team – McLaren: I’m sticking my neck out here given I’m plumping for the team that has neither driver in the fight for fourth!
But I will stand by my prediction from as early as, I think, pre-Hungary: that McLaren has the necessary ingredients to be third in the championship.
I still see the weakness in other teams that I saw months ago: Racing Point relying on Perez on race day, Renault being a little bit hit/miss and Ferrari suffering a lingering underlying performance deficit, even if it is considerably reduced.
Between Sainz and Norris, I think McLaren can have more confidence that both its drivers will score decent points on any given weekend. If that means a few sixth and seventh places over Bahrain and Abu Dhabi I think that will overcome Racing Point even if Perez (maybe Stroll) bags a fourth or a fifth.
Basically, like it has done all season, McLaren will rely on consistency and execution rather than raw speed while its rivals take points off themselves and each other.
In fact, I’d go so far as to say it wouldn’t be a surprise to see McLaren fail to win Class B in any of the remaining races and still emerge third in the championship.
RACING POINT HAS GOT OVER ITS JITTERS
Glenn Freeman
Driver and Team – Sergio Perez and Racing Point: The chance for Racing Point’s rivals to cause an upset in the battle for best of the rest has gone. The Mercedes copycat design was always going to be the favourite to win Class B, even if we didn’t know originally that the teams battling for that honour would be scrapping over third rather than fourth in the championship.
Racing Point has already bounced back from its points deduction earlier in the year, and the opportunity provided by a mixed-up Turkish GP was seized upon better by the pink cars than its rivals – if we assume Ferrari is too far back… which it is.
There’s no doubt Perez will keep delivering, so the only way this can go wrong for Racing Point is if Lance Stroll’s confidence wasn’t restored by a fine weekend at Istanbul where his performance was better than his finishing position.
Renault is too far behind now, and McLaren’s only hope appears to be consistency rather than outright speed.
EXPECT A FINAL TWIST
Matt Beer
Driver – Charles Leclerc: Is that a blind faith and optimism pick? Yes, it is. Realistically, the Ferrari’s straightline deficit should mean it’s in for three weeks of being gobbled up by rivals on power-hungry tracks…
And yet… given the pace of the Ferrari, so many of Leclerc’s race results and qualifying positions this year have been huge overperformances. He was remarkable in Bahrain last season, the pressure’s on the teams in this fight as they scrap for points that mean substantial financial prizes, and we have a great big curveball to come in the Bahrain Outer track.
Leclerc logically shouldn’t end up fourth in the drivers’ standings this year. But if this was all down to logic, he wouldn’t be fifth and three points away from that spot right now.
Team – McLaren: One wild result could skew this totally, but though it feels like a long time since McLaren’s been the Class B pacesetter, I think the overall strength of its driver line-up will carry it through.
Racing Point still ends up too far down the grid too often, and Stroll hasn’t been executing race days well enough. Renault is often a one-man team. Ferrari even more so.
I’ve got more faith in Sainz and Norris getting the maximum possible results for McLaren than the driver pairings they’re up against.
THIS SHOULD BE OVER ALREADY
Jack Benyon
Driver – Sergio Perez: I think we’re only having this conversation because Perez missed two races, he’s finished all the others in the top 10.
Leclerc and Ricciardo’s podiums keep them in the hunt, Ricciardo trending forwards at the right time while Leclerc’s consistency continues to impress.
While Perez and Racing Point’s record isn’t ace in Bahrain and Abu Dhabi, the consistency and pace of this year’s Racing Point makes that form a moot point and Perez should seal this comfortably.
Team – Racing Point: I reckon this is going to be close. Racing Point has outscored McLaren in total over the last seven races and it’s on that recent form that I’m choosing it.
I might be being a bit fanciful, but I still reckon McLaren can challenge.
Norris and Sainz both had top six finishes in either Abu Dhabi or Bahrain last year, and the Renault engine hasn’t looked too far in deficit to the Mercedes power unit – and that will likely be key on the Bahrain ‘Roval’.
However, Perez should be consistent enough to draw the team clear, even if Stroll remains the decisive if inconsistent factor here. The gap is just five points, so neither team can afford slip-ups relative to the other.
