Considering the amount of contracts about to expire and question marks over certain partnerships, there could be as many as 11 driver line-up changes in Formula 1 for the 2023 season.
And though – Oscar Piastri aside – there aren’t a huge number of obvious junior racing candidates on the cusp of F1 looking ready to elbow incumbents off the grand prix racing grid, in a driver market of such potential volatility there will surely be departures too.
Our writers predict the drivers for whom 2022 will be a final F1 season.
SEBASTIAN VETTEL
Mark Hughes
Sebastian Vettel didn’t even seem to be certain he wanted to extend his Aston Martin contract into this year.
To an extent, his respectable 2021 season rescued the damage to his reputation inflicted by that awful final season at Ferrari the year before, and I think that was very important to him.
But ideally that level of respectable (by his own standards) personal performance would be allied to a decently competitive car.
Re-establishing himself as a regular frontrunner would scratch the itch for him and then he’d be ready for the next phase of his life, I believe.
He’s unlikely to get himself back into an existing top team at this late stage of his career. So his future is surely tied up to Aston Martin.
What might tempt him to stay? The prospect of another world title might do it – but is Aston Martin capable of giving him that at this stage of its development? Vettel’s horizons are probably closer than those of the team’s.
YUKI TSUNODA
Edd Straw
Yuki Tsunoda faces perhaps the simplest equation when it comes to his Formula 1 future.
If he performs at an acceptable level, he will stay on at AlphaTauri, but if he doesn’t, that will likely be it for him in F1.
The trajectory at the end of last season was encouraging. He made Q3 in qualifying for six of the last seven races – doing so on the last two occasions on medium rubber. He signed off with fourth place in Abu Dhabi.
But still, he needs to take a step in pace relative to team-mate Pierre Gasly and show he can perform consistently.
The 21-year-old did a huge amount of learning on and off track last year. He remains a driver with genuine potential and we did see occasional flashes of that during his gruelling rookie year, so there’s every chance he can make it work this year. Yet given he’s being measured against a proven performer in Gasly, the pressure is on.
The AlphaTauri team will set reasonable, and achievable, expectations. But it will come down to whether Tsunoda has learned all the lessons of 2021 and can apply them to show form that – assuming the car is competitive enough to do so – produces consistent points finishes without the mistakes and off-the-pace weekends of last year.
Tsunoda can do it, there’s no question about that. But whether he will do it remains to be seen.
NIKITA MAZEPIN
Scott Mitchell
Of those who would seem to have expiring contracts, Nikita Mazepin ultimately has the weakest credentials. Sooner or later that will become an issue money can’t solve, short of Uralkali buying or setting up its own team.
While Mazepin’s major financial backing would seem to assure him a place on the F1 grid, it’s worth remembering that his hand is only strong if a team is vulnerable. At least for now.
It’s possible Mazepin will have a great season and show he belongs on the F1 grid.
But a season as bad as his rookie campaign – or anywhere close to being that bad – is just going to underline a feeling that he is not good enough.
In truth, Mazepin is a better driver than he showed in 2021. What he must prove this year is that he can be that driver in F1 and merit a seat rather than just have the means for one.
If he doesn’t, and his money isn’t essential, Haas will not keep him. And even if funding is a key requirement, Mazepin might not be the only driver who can bring it.
Guanyu Zhou will surely still be in F1 in 2023 because the championship is returning to China and looking to add a second race there as well. Should Alfa Romeo not want him beyond ’22, surely Haas will.
SERGIO PEREZ
Gary Anderson
For Sergio Perez, 2022 will be a big season. He needs to match up to Max Verstappen consistently, which is no easy task for anyone. And we know if he doesn’t that Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko doesn’t mince his words or cut anyone much slack.
‘Match up’ doesn’t mean he has to be as quick as Verstappen. Red Bull wants a strong number two driver and although Perez had occasions last year when he did that job – winning in Baku after Verstappen’s tyre failure the most obvious – for much of the time he was too far off. He needs to get closer and do so consistently.
Perez doesn’t lack the opportunity. He’s in the Red Bull so if he can deliver he will be kept on for 2023. It’s a new car built to very different technical regulations so his hope is that the car will be better suited to him and allow him to produce stronger pace in qualifying.
But if he can’t perform at the level Red Bull wants, then he’s going to be out of the door. After all, Red Bull doesn’t lack for alternatives. It has Gasly waiting in the wings and if he has a season with the highs he had in 2021, or even better, then he has to be a candidate for a drive with the mothership again.
If that happens, I believe Perez won’t hang around in F1 for the sake of it.
He knows there are other things in life for him to do, he’s won races and driven for a top team, so unless he can get into another competitive team I think he’ll pack his bags and walk away.
FERNANDO ALONSO
Matt Beer
I’ve been mocked by my colleague Scott Mitchell in the past for tending in articles such as this to suggest that any driver over 30 or who is a parent ought to quit and enjoy the world outside the paddock, as if enforcing my personal late-30s work/life balance epiphany on racing drivers who are probably rather enjoying what they do.
Well here’s an exception: I’d love for 40-year-old Fernando Alonso to stick around on the F1 grid for many years yet. As 2021 proved, his fire, raw pace, racecraft and sense of competitive mischief all remain at an absurdly high level for a driver this deep into a career. He’s glorious and F1’s lucky to have him.
But if Alpine falls further back or just treads water yet again, surely Alonso won’t stick around for a third year of this project. And the behind-the-scenes indications are that Alpine’s 2022 preparations are not going well, an impression not discouraged by its latest round of team management upheaval.
Unless we get a big surprise when Alpine’s 2022 car hits the track, there’s not a lot of incentive for Alonso to give his team another chance in 2023.
You’d assume that really would be it for Alonso’s F1 career and he’ll head off to tackle some of his unfinished business elsewhere (Dakar, Indianapolis).
This is Alonso, though, so maybe it’s wrong to assume it’s Alpine or nothing for him in F1 2023. Replacing Vettel at Aston Martin? A shock Mercedes call-up because Lewis Hamilton’s retired? Red Bull throwing him in as Verstappen’s 2023 wingman for the hell of it?
None of those outcomes would be as bizarre as him returning to McLaren after the 2007 explosion or popping off to the Indy 500 in the middle of an F1 season would’ve once seemed…
Two of our writers suggested Lewis Hamilton ought to be on the list of drivers who might exit F1 after 2022 – but their reasoning for his departure was very different, so we’re letting them both make their case
A record-breaking stopping point
Glenn Freeman
I think the most likely circumstance that could lead to Lewis Hamilton walking away from F1 after this year is if he wins the world championship. Then he would stand atop the F1 mountain on eight world championships, and with every other major record already to his name.
There would be nothing else left to conquer, he’d have proven his point after the injustice and controversy surrounding 2021, and with no other obvious goal (beyond a NINTH world title…) to strive for, I could easily see him deciding he’s done enough and that it’s time to move on to the next chapter of his life.
If he does win the title this year, as well as moving one clear of Michael Schumacher onto eight championships, he’d achieve something else Schumacher didn’t manage: winning the title back from the man who ended his dominance. Schumacher left F1 after back-to-back defeats to his ‘conqueror’ Fernando Alonso. Hamilton will surely be super motivated to prevent Max Verstappen doing the same to him.
If Hamilton fails to win the title in 2022, he’ll still have that goal to strive for and the chance to move clear of Schumacher’s tally, so that’s why I think a championship victory is more likely to send him into retirement than a defeat would.
Time waits for no man
Sam Smith
My feeling is that Lewis Hamilton will, through a combination of circumstances, call it a day this December and leave the championship he has largely dominated for the last decade.
The primary reason will be that a dawning realisation that the dozen years that Max Verstappen has on him will become much more apparent.
Then there will be the double hit of youth, as across the garage a fiercely ambitious and motivated George Russell will act as a kind of mirror to Hamilton. You can’t hold back the hands of time, not even if you are among the greatest racing drivers that have ever lived.
It will be an intriguing prospect if Russell starts to beat Hamilton regularly from mid-season onwards. I believe that a fascinating story of the new British hero snatching the baton from the old and running with it will happen much sooner than people expect.
One thing we know about Hamilton is how he cares about the sport he loves. But equal to that is his pride and authenticity. That will surely mean he knows when time’s tide is too strong, espeically in relation to the racers and rivals around him, new and old.
In an ideal world he wants to emulate the driver who previously beat him in a head-to-head title battle, Nico Rosberg, and leave at the top.
But should he be unable to do so, then the next best thing is to realise when you are in a losing battle and gracefully exit after achieving so much.
