There are many metrics by which Sebastian Vettel’s final Ferrari Formula 1 season can be measured as a huge disappointment.
But focusing on his form is more relevant than historical context.
It is well-documented that this is set to be Vettel’s worst season of his full grand prix career, but the worst element is that, at first glance, the numbers suggest it’s not improving.
Vettel has scored just two points since the Belgian Grand Prix, a period in which Ferrari fell to “rock bottom” and recovered to be a genuine contender in the Class B fight again.
Even Racing Point’s one-off Eifel Grand Prix stand-in Nico Hulkenberg has scored more points than Vettel in that time. Alfa Romeo’s two drivers and the Haas of Romain Grosjean have returned either the same as Vettel, or more. Only Kevin Magnussen and the two Williams have less.
Contrast that with the other Ferrari of Charles Leclerc, who has bagged 46 points across that seven-race stretch.
The root of this is qualifying performance as it’s on Saturday that Vettel’s limiting factor is most pronounced. It prevents him from pushing the car to the limit, as he has conceded he cannot feel the grip that Leclerc can.
Ferrari says there are no big differences between the two drivers on the data and it is the sum of hundredths across every phase from braking to corner exit.
The curiosity within this is that the four-time world champion seems at a loss to determine the root cause.
Vettel highlighted the extent of the confusion in the build-up to Imola, when he said that “so far in my racing life I’ve always been able to extract the maximum, this year seems a bit different”.
If he knew how to fix it, chances are it would be fixed.
“I don’t think it’s down to the way the car is handling,” he says. “I think you always have to adapt.
“I think that’s true in go-karts, all the way to Formula 1, and something that has never been a problem.
“Clearly I’m missing something this year and I’m trying everything I can to get on top of it.”
The frustration is that there are some redeeming elements of Vettel’s season but they are clouded by the knock-on effect of poor qualifying, or clumsy driving, or mistakes from the team.
The narrative of 2020 will tell you that Vettel is getting his backside handed to him on Saturdays and Sundays. But the Sundays are simply the result of Vettel being entrapped by a vicious circle.
Vettel’s yet to make it into Q3 during this seven-race run we’re focusing on. And as he has said many times, these troubles on Saturdays are wrecking his Sundays – putting him into the midfield, exposing a weakness in battle, and stopping him from threading together a clean race.
When he does put together a (relatively) clean race, he’s lost too much ground for it to be rewarded with much.
The Portuguese Grand Prix was a good example of Vettel having an uneventful, solid race and being rewarded with a meek, single point. The recent Emilia Romagna GP is a better example of Vettel’s greater potential being foiled – as well as a microcosm of his whole 2020 season.
While Leclerc was a qualifying star yet again at Imola, putting his Ferrari fifth on the grid and racing to fifth at the flag, Vettel was a lowly 14th on the grid behind George Russell’s Williams, and lost more ground with a messy first few corners that ended with him clipping Magnussen into a spin.
Decent race pace thereafter, especially when in clear air, wrestled back the potential of a points finish despite some damage to his front wing – but by the end of the race he was 12th because of a botched pitstop.
In summary, Vettel’s one-lap pace and racecraft let him down, the speed and feel to execute a good strategy by running long meant there was still something to be salvaged, but he still left the race point-less after a frustrating setback. Textbook Vettel in 2020.
Ferrari’s estimate was that Vettel would have rejoined just ahead of Lando Norris and, in that case, Vettel would almost certainly have stayed out during the late safety car and therefore at least an eighth place finish was on the cards.
It would have been his first points ‘haul’ (more than a single point for 10th) since Spain in mid-August… Instead, a threaded wheelnut on the front right condemned Vettel to a “very bad stop and it would probably cost us our race”.
Given the chaotic finish though, points were still achievable. But it was a long shot with a second stop for softs under the safety car, gambling to make the top 10. Vettel was running between the two Alfa Romeos at the time of the stop and they both scored, but without the foresight of knowing George Russell would crash Ferrari felt Vettel needed to be on softs as well to stand a chance. Despite everything he could still have left Imola with a point in his pocket.
Vettel felt that being a couple of tenths shy of Leclerc on pure pace at Imola marked a small step forward compared to recent grands prix, and Ferrari’s sporting director Laurent Mekies said Vettel “has been more comfortable” and it was “frustrating” it didn’t materialise with a better grid position.
“Sebastian and his team around him have never given up trying to find solutions to what was making him lose his edge and his confidence,” said Mekies.
“And certainly our car is a difficult one this year and I think that he is now in a window that puts him in a better place.
“That’s what the last two or three races indicate”.
But while there were flashes of Vettel closing the gap to Leclerc across the Nurburgring and Algarve weekends, he was still a long way off when it counted in Q2.
And with restricted practice in an unusual weekend format it’s difficult to take Imola, where without a cancelled lap he would have been just over 0.2s slower, as a sign of him turning a corner.
What Imola did show, like August’s Spanish Grand Prix, is that when Vettel is able to drive his own race, his pace is fine. Being slightly slower than Leclerc in a car that Vettel can’t exploit as well is no crime, and when the car is more settled with higher fuel, away from the knife-edge of qualifying, Vettel’s better qualities come to light.
Unfortunately, as events earlier in the season hinted at, his Saturday weakness is condemning him to an environment that either brings out the worst in him or prevents him from making the most of fundamentally better pace.
Vettel is capable of much better Sundays than his season suggests. But he is running out of time to make the big qualifying step he needs on Saturdays to facilitate that before 2020 ends.
