Mark Hughes: Mercedes really is under more pressure at Spa

Within the constraints of the somewhat one-sided season to date, the variables are nicely jumbled for Spa.

It’s the first truly low-downforce track (a step further than Silverstone). Within that, the contrast between its downforce-demanding middle sector and low-drag sectors 1 and 3 means certain crucial compromise choices still need to be made – and the weather is cool. All of which might conceivably mix things up a little.

On the other hand, we’re seeing the first full aerodynamic upgrade of the already-dominant Mercedes W11 here, with an extensive package encompassing new barge boards, shoulder vanes, turning vanes and floor – which you can read a lot more about on The Race on Saturday morning.

So, how does it look to be panning out after three hours of Friday practice running?

Well, Max Verstappen’s Red Bull-Honda narrowly headed the practice two times and the faster Mercedes (Lewis Hamilton’s) was only third. None other than Daniel Ricciardo’s Renault nestled between them (before pulling to the side with a hydraulic failure).

All of which means that we need to disregard the headline times? Well, yes – but not totally.

There’s much to suggest the Red Bull is actually in great shape here, despite its lack of straightline speed. And it’s also true that the Renault – just like last year’s – does tend to fly on tracks demanding very low drag. But yes, it all requires some perspective.

First of all, there’s the Mercedes engine mode factor – available here for the last time before the single engine mode technical directive kicks in at Monza.

How powerful is that mode? Some idea can be gained from a Red Bull radio message mid-session when Verstappen was informed: “You’re two-tenths faster than Mercedes right now. Power-corrected that’s two tenths deficit.”

Given that Hamilton’s less-than-perfect lap was only 0.1s adrift of Verstappen’s, we can imply that the Mercedes should still be comfortably the fastest things around, come Q3.

But what happens after qualifying – on a track where passing is relatively easy? Well, then it gets quite interesting.

The aero upgrade has also inevitably meant some finetuning as even for the best teams simulation is never identical to track reality.

“It feels pretty good,” said Valtteri Bottas, who set the quickest time of the morning. “But all day it’s been a little understeery. My main lap time gain will come from a stronger front end.”

He said that in an unconcerned manner that suggests he expects to find it.

But what happens after qualifying – on a track where passing is relatively easy? Well, then it gets quite interesting.

The long runs were generally split between the two sessions because the forecast suggested rain for the afternoon. The forecast was wrong – but regardless, the long runs on the soft tyres were conducted, in the main part, towards the end of the morning session. They revealed the following picture on average times:

1 Hamilton 1m49.46s (3 laps)
2 Bottas 1m49.93s (4 laps)
3 Perez 1m49.96s (7 laps)
4 Verstappen 1m50.38s (4 laps)
5 Ocon 1m50.5s (3 laps)
6 Stroll 1m50.63s (7 laps)
7 Norris 1m50.63s (10 laps)
8 Sainz 1m50.65s (10 laps)
9 Ricciardo 1m50.76s (7 laps)
10 Albon 1m50.89s (7 laps)

The soft (the C4) was standing up far better to the demands of a cool Spa than it did to a hot Silverstone the last time it was used. You may have noticed a tone of surprise in Mercedes strategist James Vowles’ voice when he radioed to Hamilton, “It looks like all three tyres are actually working.”

But it wasn’t a problem-free morning for Mercedes, as Bottas in particular was finding the car prone to locking its fronts. Indeed, he badly flat-spotted a set of softs and the left-front subsequently punctured.

It’s clear that even compared to recent races, Ferrari is not in great shape here

The effects of the flat spot probably account for the chunky difference in averages between Hamilton and him. This enabled Sergio Perez’s Racing Point to be snapping at Bottas’s heels.

Verstappen’s session wasn’t the smoothest as a few niggles were ironed out. His one-lap pace and his long runs of the afternoon on the medium tyre tend to confirm that the Red Bull retains a comfortable edge over Racing Point’s ‘Pink Mercedes’.

Renault’s hot single lap pace is derived more from its performance in the low-drag sectors than its downforce. Hence it’s not too surprising that it wasn’t replicating its single-lap form in the long runs. But, at around 1s off a Mercedes pace, it was still enough to shade McLaren, albeit not by much.

Notice anything missing yet? The red Italian cars. With high drag and low power, Spa was never going to be a happy hunting ground for Ferrari. It seems way more than a year ago when Charles Leclerc took pole by 0.7s.

Here on single lap pace Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel were hovering at around the Q1/Q2 cut-off point. It’s unlikely that this is fully representative, especially given the unfavourable comparison to Alfa Romeo in the afternoon.

Still it’s clear that even compared to recent races, Ferrari is not in great shape here. The focus was on trying to find a workable platform for the car rather than the fine-honing of tyre usage and consequently there wasn’t a lot of long running done.

But Vettel’s four-lap run on softs in the afternoon averaged around 0.8s slower than the Racing Point of Lance Stroll, the only other driver making a long run on that tyre at the same time.

The afternoon long runs (which were mainly conducted on the medium tyre) were interrupted by a red flag for debris to be cleared. But taking the two halves of them and putting them together gave the following picture among the frontrunners.

1 Bottas 1m49.022s – mediums (4 laps)
2 Hamilton 1m49.122s – hards (4 laps)
3 Verstappen 1m49.131s – mediums (4 laps)
4 Albon 1m49.229s – mediums (3 laps)
5 Perez 1m49.342s – mediums (4 laps)
6 Stroll 1m49.720s – softs (5 laps)

As you can see, they weren’t really ‘long’ such is the length of the lap and the compacted running.

But what they do suggest is that Verstappen’s Red Bull can run a similar race pace – at least to the ‘not-quite-finetuned-yet’ Mercedes.

“The car seems to be handling well,” said Verstappen. “It is of course early days but from our side it was a positive Friday and overall I’m pretty happy.

“A racing car is never perfect and you always try to find things on the car and with the tyre prep that you can improve, so we will be looking at that tonight.

“Personally, I think Mercedes are still struggling a bit with the balance and I expect them to be stronger tomorrow.”

The running also suggested a strong improvement from Alex Albon who ran barely any slower than Verstappen in the sister car one year on from his debut with the team.

“I felt good with the car from the very first lap,” he said. “It felt strong and the car is gelling better.

“The corner balance feels good and so I’m happy things are progressing the right way.

“I think it’s actually helped a lot having that experience in the car from my first race with the team here last year as coming into this weekend I knew what we were going to do, what worked at this track and what didn’t – having that experience is really beneficial.”

Practice 2 Results