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The Azerbaijan Grand Prix is set to be a beautifully-poised game of Ferrari/Red Bull cat and mouse – and the story of the whole weekend so far has been the two teams seemingly trying to anticipate in their set-up choices what is needed to beat the other on race day.
What those choices gave us in qualifying was a Ferrari beautifully supple and responsive in Charles Leclerc’s hands through the tight old-town middle sector of the lap and competitive in sectors 1 and 3.
Good enough for him to take a comfortable pole from a Red Bull which despite Sergio Perez’s superb between-the-walls judgement was just a little too unresponsive in that middle sector.
That’s where all the damage was done. That’s where second-fastest Checo was 0.327s slower than Leclerc, enough to give the Ferrari pole by 0.282s.
Perez was delayed getting out of the garage because of what Christian Horner describes as a “numbers error” with his fuel load and this denied him a possible tow.
“But it meant he got a perfect out-lap,” Horner explained, “and I still don’t think we could’ve done Charles’ time.
“We’ve focused more on tomorrow than today and we’re starting second and third on a track where if you are quick you can overtake.”
Leclerc’s pole time was also without a tow, Ferrari feeling it wasn’t worth the possible compromise of one driver or the other and leaving them to make their own arrangements.
It was Carlos Sainz’s turn this weekend to choose the running order between him and Leclerc in the final Q3 runs – and he chose to go first, the first of anyone as it happened, to give himself an uncompromised out-lap preparation.
Leclerc didn’t attempt to follow him and found his own space. This was easier to do in a Ferrari which could be given quite a leisurely out-lap tyre preparation than with the Red Bull which needed a more aggressive out-lap to get the fronts up to temperature in time for the start of the lap.
In that detail is a small clue to the critical difference between the two cars, one which may well decide the outcome. The respective aero sweet spots of the two cars are much the same around this wholly untypical track layout as they have been elsewhere this year: the Red Bull runs a smaller rear wing and is quicker at the end of the straights. The Ferrari, even with the lower-downforce of its two wings (which it ran from FP2 onwards) still carries more wing area than the Red Bull. It can generate more load on the front axle and can consequently support a bigger rear wing and remain in balance. It’s invariably a little quicker in the slow corners and a little better at switching-on its front tyres.
But it all begs the question: has Ferrari run too much wing to allow Leclerc to defend himself at the end of the straight from the Red Bulls? Or has Red Bull run too little wing to keep its rear tyres in shape as well as the Ferrari, thereby making it vulnerable at the end of the stints? That isn’t knowable and they have each been guided to their choices by the respective traits of the two cars.
When Horner says ‘focusing on race day’ he’s referring to his car’s end-of-straight advantage and therefore its overtaking ability.
With DRS deployed the Red Bull was only a couple of km/h faster through the trap, but that’s placed some way before the start/finish line – and by the time they crossed that the Red Bull’s advantage was 5km/h. They continue accelerating for a second or so past there so the speed advantage into the braking area will be even more. With a tow, considerably more.
But… two things. Last year Red Bull was much the fastest car in the race but only qualified on rows two and three. This was because it was running considerably more rear wing than either the front row cars: Leclerc’s Ferrari and Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes.
That’s why the Red Bulls qualified behind but were faster in the race. Their rear tyres held out way better and by the end of the stint both Verstappen and Perez were able to overcut Hamilton’s Mercedes out of the lead and down to third.
This time around it is Red Bull which is running less wing, Ferrari more. Yet Ferrari has qualified on pole regardless.
“The Friday long runs are never long enough to really see the patterns,” commented Sainz, “but at other races this year after maybe 10 laps [Red Bull] has sometimes had better pace than us.”
That has tended to be when the limitation was the front tyres. Here it will be the rears. It is absolutely not a certainty that the Red Bull will better on its rear tyres here than the Ferrari, not given their respective wing choices.
Secondly, to get in position to convert the tow into a pass, you need to be close enough early enough on the straight. But the Ferrari accelerates onto the straights harder. Whether because of a smaller more responsive turbo or shorter gearing (or both), the pattern here is much as it has been everywhere: the F1-75 rockets out of the corners. It tends to be a long way down the straight before the Red Bull is going faster.
So the effective straightline difference between them may not be as great as the end-of-straight numbers suggest. Good enough regardless for Perez and/or Verstappen to eventually find a way past if Leclerc retains his lead off the grid and they don t get their races compromised by Sainz? Close enough that a bit of forcing the Ferrari to use up its battery power to defend then attacking it when the electrical store inevitably empties will see them past? That’s one of the great imponderables that potentially makes this such an intriguing match-up.
The respective wing choices of the two teams are probably less tactical than Horner might lead us to believe. More likely, it’s just where the natural sweet spots of the two cars unerringly places those choices.
Watch Leclerc and Perez or Verstappen through the tight twists of that middle sector and the contrast is marked. The Ferrari just turns in nicer and floats through.
Perez is great at judging where the understeer will take him relative to the barriers on the exits with millimetre precision but the Ferrari’s attitude is able to be manipulated early into the corner thanks to that more neutral-oversteer balance and Leclerc can use the throttle to take it up to the barriers, rather than having to judge it in advance, as the understeer is obliging the Red Bull drivers to do. They are having to be more physical with the steering wheel on turn in, the Red Bull’s nose more reluctant to respond.
This of course is the trait that Verstappen says is preventing him from squeezing those last couple of tenths of pace from the car in the way he was able to do with last year’s more flighty RB16B. But it also suggests a car which would not respond well to more rear wing.
In terms of its balance, it looks already to have too much rear end for Verstappen at least. Perez is very much at home in it on a street track. That understeer is what gives him the confidence he never had in last year’s car.
This is just how the RB18’s dynamics work in its current state of development. Here it had new floor edges, trying to help move that centre of pressure a bit further forwards, but it hasn’t fundamentally changed how the car drives.
So around Baku, this would seem to be the natural wing level. Adding more and making accompanying flap changes to the front to balance it would likely take the car out of its optimum aero efficiency range.
By contrast the Ferrari’s neutral to oversteer balance is perfect for this place, especially in Leclerc’s hands.
The car ran with the bigger wing in FP1 but that was, as Mattia Binotto explained, just to give the drivers confidence on a very green street track which always begins very low on grip and around which there are plenty of solid things to hit. It just allowed Leclerc and Sainz to play themselves in. As soon as they switched to the lower downforce wing, they were no longer losing 0.3s to the Red Bulls in sector 3.
But this is also a pitwall contest between the two teams and if this comes to be the crucial differentiator, Red Bull would surely be favourite. Car, team, driver or tyres? Which will make the difference? This could be epic, even by Baku standards.
