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Max Verstappen is a serious threat to Mercedes in the Russian Grand Prix after qualifying a “surprise” second but would not be in contention at all had a “knife-edge” call gone wrong.
Verstappen was only seventh when the second part of qualifying resumed after being red-flagged, having set his initial Q2 time on mediums in a bid to ensure he started on the preferable, harder, compound for the race.
“It doesn’t get any more knife-edge than that” :: Christian Horner
But he needed to join the final three-minute dash after the stoppage to protect himself against others improving, and did so with soft tyres – a compound expected to suffer badly from degradation on race day.
Verstappen was poised to improve his lap time, which would have condemned him to starting on the less-fancied softs, before an urgent message from his Red Bull team as he approached the final corner to abort the lap.
“It was a late call, but it was the right call,” admitted team boss Christian Horner. “It was at Turn 18. It doesn’t get any more knife-edge than that.”
It was a bold call too, as Verstappen fell to ninth place. Esteban Ocon, Charles Leclerc and Daniil Kvyat all had the potential to improve and bump him further down, and had not completed their laps when Verstappen was told to abort – though they were all on slower efforts than their respective personal bests.
That last-gasp call to back off and ensure he can start on mediums transforms Verstappen’s prospects for the grand prix because, after avoiding Q2 elimination, he nailed a very good lap to split the Mercedes drivers and beat Valtteri Bottas onto the front row.
Poleman Lewis Hamilton has to start on softs after his high-profile Q2 dramas – meaning Verstappen begins the race as the highest-placed driver on the ideal tyre strategy.
“I wanted to start on the medium but the field is very, very close on lap time so it was very hard,” said Verstappen.
“I did my very best to do the best lap I could on that tyre but it was not easy because I was already struggling for grip and then going onto a harder compound it was even more difficult to find that grip.
“Then going into that last corner, after the red flag, when I was back onto the soft tyres, they told me ‘abort, abort’, so I stopped. But the finish line is quite short after the last corner.
“I’m happy that we did it, and we just made it through.”
Verstappen hadn’t looked like a front-row contender all through practice, or at the start of qualifying, but he was 1.8s faster in the top-10 shootout than he had gone in Q1.
That was a result of constant tweaks to his Red Bull RB16’s set-up which gave him slightly more corner entry grip and finally offered a solution to a weekend-long struggle at a track several drivers have struggled to get on top of.
Verstappen was never likely to challenge for victory if his pace had remained at the level seen from Friday morning to Q2
“Friday was a little bit messy because were trying downforce levels and we never really had a perfect lap,” said Verstappen.
“There were always a few moments and stuff so I knew that we were going to be more competitive than where we were but it’s a surprise to be on the front row, that’s for sure.”
Verstappen believes a good start and trying to benefit from a tow from Hamilton, plus the tyre advantage, gives him a chance to challenge the Mercedes drivers tomorrow.
That will partly depend on Bottas’s launch from third, but while the Finn is in a better position for a slipstream he has had some very poor starts in 2020.
Verstappen has only won one race this year, the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix at Silverstone, which also came after making the most of opportunistic circumstances.
Despite the turnaround when it mattered in Sochi qualifying, Verstappen admitted the underlying pace of the Red Bull is more of a question mark there than at the scene of his sole 2020 triumph.
“I honestly don’t expect it to be like Silverstone,” said Verstappen, who cleared the Mercedes drivers with superior tyre management and eased to a comfortable win at round five.
“I think we were a little bit more competitive in the long runs there and also the compounds, I don’t think it’s as big an issue as what it was there.
“So I don’t expect the same to happen, but I’m just happy with the improvements we did make overnight.
“Even at the beginning of qualifying it looked quite tricky to be P3 because I think we just didn’t really find a good balance an issue because of the wind change [in Q1].
“It seemed like it was very difficult for me to find rear grip in some corners but in Q3 we made a few changes and it seemed to work a bit better. I was pleased by that.”
Had he qualified on the second row, Verstappen would still have had the benefit of the leaders’ slipstream on the run to Turn 2 – but even in that circumstance he was never likely to challenge for victory if his pace had remained at the level seen from Friday morning to Q2, and if Hamilton’s qualifying had run smoothly.
But with the improved pace found in the final moments of qualifying, a front-row start and a tyre advantage vs the Mercedes he most fears, Verstappen’s prospects look very different.
