The first qualifying session for this new-look Formula 1 was exciting right up to the moment the last car took the chequered flag. It was topsy-turvy throughout and now we have a clearer idea of where everyone stands.
Qualifying day at the Bahrain Grand Prix is our highest-quality data yet on the performance levels this year, so we can judge who appears to have taken a step forward from 2021 and who has gone backwards.
It’s only one data set, but it’s all we’ve got – and I’m sure we will see plenty of changes as each team’s development programme kicks into action and therefore performance fluctuations.
The numbers below are all expressed as percentages of the outright fastest time, judged by each team’s single best lap. This allows us to judge across varying track lengths and conditions.
The 2021 figure is based on average qualifying performance over the season, while for the two pre-season tests it’s based on the fastest lap times for each team adjusted for the C4 tyre and then turned into a percentage. While the C3 is the softest tyre being used for the Bahrain race weekend, the performance is still comparable.
The Bahrain qualifying ranking uses the supertime method of taking each team’s fastest single lap from any session, rather than being based on pure qualifying results. This is the first time we know for certain that everyone is running in the same condition, on low fuel with the engines in the best mode that the teams believe they can use over a race distance.
| Bahrain qualifying | 2021 | Test 1 | Test 2 | |
| Ferrari | 0.000 | 0.915 | 0.000 | 0.429 |
| Red Bull | 0.136 | 0.263 | 0.085 | 0.000 |
| Mercedes | 0.541 | 0.130 | 1.079 | 1.123 |
| Haas | 0.997 | 3.268 | 2.317 | 0.566 |
| Alfa Romeo | 1.106 | 1.923 | 2.753 | 0.397 |
| Alpine | 1.174 | 1.413 | 1.974 | 0.737 |
| AlphaTauri | 1.189 | 0.919 | 1.206 | 1.393 |
| McLaren | 1.601 | 0.892 | 0.761 | 0.621 |
| Williams | 2.326 | 2.093 | 2.070 | 3.275 |
| Aston Martin | 2.450 | 1.633 | 1.951 | 1.957 |
Below, we’ve ranked the teams on the percentage performance improvement from their 2021 average to Bahrain qualifying.
It’s not a perfect comparison as it’s a whole season of averages against a single qualifying session, but it’s an ideal snapshot of who’s gained and lost ground from last year to this year.
1 Haas
Performance change: 2.271% gain
Haas has been one of the surprises of the new season. To go from over 3% off the pace last year to under 1% this year is an incredible step forward.
Part of that has been the return of Kevin Magnussen. He has slotted back in there like a comfy pair of shoes, and as Mick Schumacher has said he now has someone to measure himself against. Kevin is no slouch so it will not be easy for Mick.
Haas is also benefiting from the Ferrari power surge, both from the engine and the fact that it is so closely integrated with Ferrari.
The 0.431% drop-off from the pre-season test in Bahrain will just be down to fuel load. To do the times it did last week, there wasn’t much fuel in the tank.
2 Ferrari
Performance change: 0.915% gain
Ferrari has made massive strides both on the chassis and power unit side. If I had to say which was responsible for the biggest gain, I’d point towards the engine.
Yes, I questioned Ferrari’s aerodynamic concept when the car was launched because I didn’t understand what it was trying to achieve with the sidepod design – and I have to say I’m still not sure. But it is obviously working.
To improve by 0.915% from last year is impressive, while a 0.429% gain from the pre-season Bahrain test means Ferrari was not light on fuel then.
3 Alfa Romeo
Performance change: 0.817% gain
Alfa Romeo is another Ferrari power unit user that has shown a real turn of pace.
Valtteri Bottas has fitted in seamlessly and seems to have a real spring in his step.
Alfa Romeo hasn’t matched its Bahrain pre-season testing times and doubtless was running a bit lower on fuel than some other others in testing, but it was nice to see Bottas battling with Lewis Hamilton for grid position.
4 Alpine
Performance change: 0.239% gain
It all got a little better, but probably not by as much as Alpine had hoped for.
These days, when you get over that 1% deficit mark it means that you have a lot of work to do. Alpine was on average 1.413% off last year and 1.174s off the pace today.
Not so many years ago, that might just have put you on the front row but times have changed dramatically.
Pre-season testing has been a bit up and down with various problems and some of these are lingering.
To satisfy Fernando Alonso, Alpine needs to take the next step – but we have been saying that for a long time.
5 Red Bull
Performance change: 0.127% gain
You could say that Red Bull was caught with its trousers down by Ferrari.
To be right in there in pre-season testing at both tracks and then to lose out to Ferrari when it really matters in qualifying by 0.136% must rub it up the wrong way.
Although Red Bull has improved on its average deficit to the pace from 2021, I’m sure everyone there is still disappointed.
6 WILLIAMS
Performance change: 0.233% loss
Williams is the first on our list to drop off performance-wise from last year.
I’m not a fan of the sidepod concept, but that’s not all of the problem. The car seems to lack a bit of overall grip, and has more understeer than most.
It does seem Alex Albon has fitted in well and, as we should expect compared to Nicholas Latifi, he is in the same ballpark to what George Russell was achieving. So if Williams gives him the tools, he will bring it the results.
All the Mercedes-powered teams have lost performance too, so that is perhaps also playing a part.
7 AlphaTauri
Performance change: 0.270% loss
On the grid itself, AlphaTauri is battling with Alpine. But while Alpine has improved slightly relative to last season, AlphaTauri has dropped off that little bit from 2021.
Given the association with the Red Bull mothership and the move up to a 60%-scale windtunnel, AlphaTauri should have closed the gap a little bit.
The car is a very tidy package, but being tidy doesn’t guarantee it’s fast.
AlphaTauri was closer in qualifying than in testing (1.189% today versus 1,393% last week), which is a positive, but needs to make some more progress.
8 Mercedes
Performance change: 0.411% loss
The best way of putting it is that qualifying itself could have been a lot worse for Mercedes.
Perhaps Mercedes has dropped the ball a little on the power unit and all the other problems are just noise around the periphery of the real issue.
I don’t think there is a car out there not suffering from porpoising and slow-speed understeer to some degree, but it’s clear Mercedes has a lot of work to do.
9 McLaren
Performance change: 0.709% loss
Pre-season testing started so positively for McLaren, but then someone pulled the rug out from underneath it.
McLaren had major brake problems at the Bahrain pre-season test and this meant it struggled to do much long running.
But that said, its percentage performance over both pre-season tests is not much different – it was actually closer to the pace in its troubled Bahrain test (0.621% off) than in Spain (0.761%).
From this one set of data, it’s the first team to have suffered a major drop-off from last year, and while others have gone forward, McLaren has gone backwards.
Yes it lost the services of Daniel Ricciardo for the Bahrain test but that was only a minor problem compared to the brake issue.
We also have to take into account the fact all the Mercedes-powered teams have taken a step backwards.
10 Aston Martin
Performance change: 0.817% loss
Aston Martin had a rough time in 2021 but 2022 but has got off to a real stinker.
In test one and test two, relative performance showed it was in for a tough time but reality has hit a bit harder.
Losing Sebastian Vettel to COVID-19 hasn’t done it any favours, but super-sub Nico Hulkenberg has just come in and got on with it.
McLaren and Ricciardo can complain about losing testing time, but the Hulk had never sat in the car before Friday morning. To me, this together with Magnussen’s performance in the Haas proves that when you have talent you have talent. But right now, Hulkenberg hasn’t got the car to match.
Aston Martin is also the fourth and final Mercedes-powered team.
It’s interesting that all of the teams that have significantly improved their performance relative to last year are Ferrari power unit users, and the teams that have significantly dropped off are all Mercedes power unit users.
Make of that what you will.
