The drivers are in love with Mugello, but will Formula 1 fans feel the same way after today’s Tuscan Grand Prix?
Another Mercedes 1-2 in qualifying and the Italian circuit’s inherent anti-overtaking (well, at least for single-seaters producing downforce) design might not have many hopeful of a stellar Sunday.
But there are plenty of unknowns heading into the race that should make for a fascinating day at an extraordinary F1 2020 venue.
Will the DRS get a rare chance to do its real job?
Nobody has a firm answer on this but there’s a chance F1’s first race at Mugello might not be the procession most are fearing.
With only six braking events and a lowest-speed corner taken in fourth gear, the overtaking spots and few and far between at Mugello. And by that we mean Turn 1 – San Donato.
But the wide circuit layout promotes different lines through San Donato in particular but also the long Correntaio and Buscine turns, which could be fun on the opening lap or at safety car restarts (more on that later).
Based on the Formula 2 and Formula 3 races, the start-finish straight is long enough for DRS to be effective despite the zone being positioned a little bit late.
The question is whether this applies to F1, because following through the final corner will be even tougher than in the junior categories.
Then we have three scenarios. First, that the DRS is as effective as in F2 and F3 and the only overtakes are boring drive-bys. Yawn.
Second, that the DRS is not effective enough and there’s zero overtaking. Yawn.
Then the third scenario. That the DRS zone starts too late for drivers to just blast past their opposition with the DRS activated – but the straight is long enough and the DRS effect powerful enough to bring them into contention at the braking zones.
This would be a rare case of the DRS doing what it was actually designed to do. And could be the only route to exciting fights. – SM
Will the tyres create Silverstone-style drama?
The Mugello track configuration, which has plenty of corners yet the third-highest average lap speed in Formula 1, puts a lot of stress on the tyres. It’s closest to Silverstone in terms of the demands and given there were problems with the tyres in both races at that circuit – with the front-left at the British Grand Prix, then with rear blistering on the 70th Anniversary GP weekend – it’s fair to ask if there could be more of the same this time round.
But given blistering hasn’t been a big problem, even though tyre wear is the main limiting factor rather than thermal degradation, a repeat of the failures of Silverstone isn’t expected. But then again, it’s a new track for an F1 race so it remains to be seen how it plays out.
Theoretically, a two-stopper is faster, but because of difficulties overtaking it’s inevitable that teams will attempt to stretch it to a one-stopper. Even those starting on softs, as all of the top 10 must thanks to concerns among the fastest that the disadvantage of mediums off the line was not worth the advantage over a stint, could make that work, with Pirelli suggesting lap 22 of 59 is the time to stop. – ES
What will engine battle be like in straight fight?
One week ago at Monza Hamilton was easing clear at the front, having claimed a crushing pole position, and never looked under threat at all. Engine mode ban? What engine mode ban?
The events of the race robbed us of seeing that performance over a full race distance although some were keen to point out that the Mercedes drivers struggled to overtake, which apparently suggests their engine really is weaker now.
Of course it’s weaker, every engine (except maybe Ferrari given its struggles) is weaker without a peak qualifying mode. But the retention of a decent advantage in qualifying adds further weight to the argument that Mercedes is still the best car-engine combination.
What we’ve not seen is really how that shakes out in race trim, which is quite important given Mercedes talked up its increased Sunday performance quite a lot around this TD.
The race will give us the first proper look at the Mercedes vs Red Bull-Honda balance of power post-engine mode rule change in a straight fight. – SM
Is this the boring race Albon needs?
It probably hasn’t looked like it after finishing down the top 10 in Spain, being beaten by two Renaults in Belgium, and outside the points in Italy, but Alex Albon’s season is on the brink of turning a corner.
Let me finish.
Each of the last three events Albon has gradually looked more and more comfortable earlier in the weekend and been chipping away at his deficit to Verstappen. He’s just had extra variables to contend with: an unfortunate first lap and strategy at Barcelona, a long stint on medium tyres at Spa and an unfortunate first lap paired with Red Bull’s general uncompetitiveness at Monza.
But with Red Bull a clear second-best at Mugello, Albon’s looking much more assured. His team has said for weeks that he just needs a boring weekend.
He’s got half of that out of the way by qualifying fourth. Now he just needs a simple run on Sunday to complete his first clean weekend of 2020. – SM
Does F2 safety car chaos hint at trouble?
Several Formula 1 drivers, including Daniel Ricciardo, were keeping an eye on the dramatic Formula 2 race that followed qualifying. The Australian even recommended those who hadn’t seen it make an effort to catch up with it later – all because of two late-race safety cars that turned the race on its head. This culminated in Nikita Mazepin passing long-time race leader Christian Lundgaard and Luca Ghiotto after the second restart with three laps to go.
The first restart was also troublesome, with the field held by Lundgaard before he gunned it and a concertina effect meaning that the first corner was very congested – which led to several clashes.
But it’s not just an unfamiliar challenge for drivers. The teams also have little historical data to rely on in terms of safety car probability, which will add an extra edge to how they react to evolving situations.
“The risk tomorrow is a relatively simple mistake or touching the gravel traps,” said Williams head of vehicle performance Dave Robson. “I think that coupled with the fact a lot of the corners are blind means we’ll see a lot of double-waved yellows. If the cars are able to then get going and unbeach themselves, then hopefully the safety car won’t make too many appearances.
“But it’s another one of those things coming to somewhere new. Normally, we’d have reasonably good statistics to rely on as to what is likely to happen tomorrow in terms of VSCs and safety cars, but we don’t have that. So it’s a little bit of an estimation – engineering intuition we’ll call it.” – ES
Is out of position Leclerc key to a fun midfield battle?
After hitting “rock bottom” at Monza (sporting director Laurent Mekies’ words, not ours), Ferrari has bounced back at its home circuit for what it is calling its 1000th grand prix.
Well, Charles Leclerc has. Sebastian Vettel’s still not getting through to Q3 (his fifth Q2 elimination in a row) but Leclerc is an excellent fifth on the grid after another stellar qualifying job and some underachievement around him.
Leclerc is out of position. The Racing Points directly behind him are quicker, maybe even the Renaults and McLarens too.
“I’m not sure he’s got a fifth-place race car so that in itself might create a bit of a battle for that top five,” reckons Renault’s Daniel Ricciardo. “I think him qualifying there will hopefully make it a bit exciting.”
Ferrari broke an unwanted 11-year record last weekend: the first time it has recorded back-to-back zero-point hauls since 2009. Fortunately this weekend that doesn’t risk getting extended because 11 years ago that was actually a three-race point-less run at the start of the season.
Slipping out of the points would represent a big decline in the race. Really, the target is to mix things up in the Class B fight as much as possible. As Mekies says: “Everything has to be perfect for us to keep leading that group.” – SM
Can Ocon recover from his qualifying blunder?
Qualifying was looking promising for Renault driver Esteban Ocon until the rear came round on him at the exit of the Turn 4/5 left-right and he spun to a halt.
That leaves him 10th on the grid, but prior to that mistake on his sole Q3 run, Ocon felt he was matching team-mate Daniel Ricciardo and while it would have been a big ask for him to outqualify Ricciardo given he’s yet to do so in dry conditions in 2020, it certainly wasn’t out of the question. But then again, perhaps spinning in Q3 was indicative that he was pushing a little too hard.
Ocon’s been a regular points scorer in 2020, with a best finish of fifth at Spa, but too often underachieving in qualifying has left him to scrap for eighth place. With a good start at Mugello, he has a shot at a good result as he attempts to build momentum after a difficult first half of the season. – ES
What can McLaren salvage from its nasty surprise?
McLaren went from being the second-fastest car in qualifying at Monza and fighting for the victory to getting only one car into Q3 here where it qualified a lowly ninth – on merit. It wasn’t what was expected, either by the outside world or McLaren itself.
There was nothing about the fast, flowing nature of Mugello that suggested some flaw in the car would be excessively punished. The car is well-endowed with downforce, has a generally wide operating window and the Renault power unit is probably the next most potent after the Mercedes. It also has one of the best driver line-ups of all. What could possibly go wrong?
Gusts. Wind and possibly the abrasive track surface. The car is excessively sensitive to tailwinds, as explained by Carlos Sainz. “It’s been the same since 2019. Our car is good in headwinds but badly affected by tailwinds. That’s why at Monza we were avoiding the tow because effectively the tow generates a tailwind. In the first and second sectors here we were seeing a lot of tailwind.”
“It just makes the car very unpredictable,” said Lando Norris, who suffered a car-damaging off on Friday when a sudden gust caught him out. “It changes from lap to lap and you don’t get a feeling of where the limit is.”
What can be salvaged from that? Perhaps if the wind calms, the car may begin to deliver the sort of messages to Sainz (who starts ninth) and Norris (11th) that allows them to finally tune into it. But that’s probably asking a lot. The area sits between the cool winds coming off the Alps and the warm air from the Mediterranean – so is naturally blustery. Saturday in fact was a relatively calm day – but still too volatile for the McLarens.
“Anything can happen in the race,” says Sainz, “as we saw at Monza. But a normal race, on pure pace it won’t be very different to what we’ve seen all weekend.” – MH
