It’s been a while since MotoGP has visited the hallowed ground that is Mugello, with last year’s Italian Grand Prix cancellation meaning it’s two years since we’ve seen top-level two-wheeled action at the much-loved Tuscan circuit.
A lot has changed in the series since then, which begs the question: which manufacturer are we going to see shining, and who’s going to suffer?
Mugello is usually not by any means a unique track configuration on the MotoGP schedule, but it’s nonetheless become one of late thanks to cancelled races and rearranged calendars changing the roster of tracks.
The stand-out feature is of course the start finish straight, until earlier this year the fastest in MotoGP and definitely the most terrifying thanks to the left-hand kink that launches bikes airborne.
But there’s also some of the most beautifully fast and flowing corners of the season. Sections like Arrabbiata one and two and the Biondetti chicane are well-liked by riders for good reason, with the swooping elevation changes through them making for a rollercoaster of a ride.
The last time we visited here it was the fastest bikes on the grid that made the most of the straights to be in the fight for the win.
Danilo Petrucci took a sensational victory for Ducati, setting up a spectacular finish to force his way through on Honda rider Marc Marquez and his Ducati team-mate Andrea Dovizioso.
And right now, if you had to bet on a bike to perform well again this year, the Desmosedici would be the prime contender. Since 2019, it’s become even faster, as evidenced by Pramac’s Johann Zarco adding to MotoGP’s top speed record earlier this year when clocked at 225.1mph at Losail – a record that probably won’t survive the weekend at Mugello should the weather hold up.
But more importantly, Ducati has finally started to come to grips with the mid-corner turning issue that has plagued the bike since the Casey Stoner era.
That was a persistent complaint from Stoner, from Valentino Rossi, and from Dovizioso, but a combination of rider style, new tyres and improvements to the machine have made big inroads.
Add to that that Ducati has got two factory riders in prime form, and it’s a winning formula.
Jack Miller heads to Ducati’s home track two for two from the last races and looking to extend that streak, while Petrucci proved last time the power of a home race – something that his replacement Pecco Bagnaia will be doing his best to harness as he takes the fight for the title lead to Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo.
Speed isn’t everything though, and in reality it’s been one of MotoGP’s persistent slowest machines (in straightline speed terms) that has dominated Mugello for the best part of two decades.
Yamaha’s M1 might have a horsepower disadvantage, but it’s so blisteringly fast through those long corners that it can more than manage to make up any time lost on the straight and that’s earned it 10 Mugello victories in the MotoGP era.
But the last of them was in 2016 and it’s hard to see things improving this year.
Making up for the lack of power with cornering speed is a straightforward strategy for fast laps, but it’s slightly more challenging in races – and perhaps the biggest technological breakthrough we’ve had since the last time MotoGP visited Mugello is the proliferation of holeshot devices.
It’s going to look like an awfully long way to turn one on Sunday afternoon for the Yamaha riders as the Ducatis leave them for dust off the line, and it’s going to make life very hard for Quartararo to build on his Le Mans podium with a return to winning ways.
That’s not the only Yamaha issue though, because another important factor has changed since the last time we were too – the emergence of what’s almost a Yamaha 2.0 in the form of Suzuki’s GSX-RR.
Retaining all the sweet-handling, fast-cornering abilities of the M1 but giving away less weaknesses in other areas, the Suzuki gives Alex Rins and reigning world champion Joan Mir a machine more than capable of delivering this weekend.
Rins was a close fourth last time at Mugello, missing out on the podium by a mere 0.2s, while then-rookie Mir was within 20s of the race win himself.
They’re under considerable pressure to turn around Suzuki’s season, they’ve been targeting the traditional tracks of Europe, and now is the time to make hay while the sun is shining.
That’s assuming, though, that the sun does continue to shine – and right now the weather forecast isn’t looking fantastic for Sunday, with a 50-50 chance that it’ll be dry all weekend and then pour down for the race.
There’s one team that will play into the hands of: Aprilia.
The local brand, from only up the road in Noale, has tested extensively lately at Mugello, and new test rider Dovizioso was here a few weeks ago for three days that were curtailed by rain. That means that there are plug-and-play wet settings ready for Aleix Espargaro should they be needed.
