Sunday’s MotoGP race at Misano might prove to be something of an oxymoron.
On one hand it’s set to be an absolute barnstormer given that no one is sure who has the pace to win or even finish on the podium.
Yet there’s also a chance that the first match point of the 2021 title race will come and go without much in the way of impact on the championship storyline – and it might even be a pretty flat race.
On paper, the closest thing we’ve got to a race favourite right now is pole position qualifier and championship second-placed man Pecco Bagnaia, who looked imperious at Misano on Saturday to end up on the top spot.
Bagnaia’s title rival Fabio Quartararo will start from a distant 15th place, meaning it’s hard to see any outcome other than at least some of his 52-point championship lead being lost.
A well-acknowledged hater of tracks that are just damp rather than being fully wet or dry, especially when it’s just dry enough to force riders to revert to slick tyres, Quartararo was keen to brush off his poor qualifying performance as a blip – even if he knows it means he’s got a lot of work to do when the lights go out.
“We made a massive improvement in the wet,” he insisted of his performance on a fully wet track earlier in the day, “but this afternoon the conditions were exactly what I hate, so I knew Q1 would be a tough job.
“It’s not what I expected because I had some struggles in mixed conditions, and I didn’t take enough risk in the last two sectors.
“But that’s understandable. I’m on the cautious side: I won’t take too many risks with wet patches.
“But I’m not too worried about it. Of course, I didn’t want to be in this position, but now that I am, I’ll need to make a great start and some great overtakes, and we will see what happens.“
Bagnaia dominated the last race at Misano five weeks ago, and is once again starting from pole position – which means there’s potential for a repeat performance that could make for a rather dull race.
Or at least that’s Bagnaia’s intention, knowing that the only way in which he can really do anything to keep his championship hopes alive to the final round of the season is to just stay at the front in all the races.
“I think that the only possibility I have is to push from the start, to try to open a gap, and to then try and control that gap until the end,” he said.
“It won’t be easy, and for sure Jack [Miller] will be very strong and Luca [Marini] has a great chance. The only thing is that they’re both Ducatis.
“I just had to push if he [Quartararo] was starting P2, and I have to push the same even if he is starting P15, because the only thing I can do to try to keep the championship open is to try and win tomorrow.
“The objective would be the same even if he was starting more in front.”
The huge fly in the ointment for Bagnaia, and in fact for every rider on the grid as they go into the race preparing to expect the unexpected, is a set of circumstances that could well deliver a treat for neutral parties.
So far this weekend pretty much all track running at the Misano circuit has taken place in at least damp conditions, with rain leaving three out of the four MotoGP practice sessions running on wet tyres and only Saturday afternoon’s FP4 on slicks, although very much on a somewhat damp track. The same was true for the Sunday morning warm-up.
But with the race scheduled to take place in the best conditions of the weekend, it seems all but certain that we’re going to have a real dry track for the first time – meaning that the unpredictability of tyre selection will be turned up a notch.
Teams of course have some limited data from the last race here – but with the later date bringing cooler conditions (as evidenced by two days of rain), it’s different enough that riders don’t quite know what to expect.
Whether that plays into the hands of Bagnaia or delivers a golden chance for one of the many itching to play the role of title battle spoiler remains to be seen.
Given the quality of racing that MotoGP has delivered this season it’s hardly likely to be boring.
But it might not be the title clincher you would’ve expected before qualifying, or as significant for the championship as the 14-place gap between the contenders on the grid would suggest.
