The MotoGP paddock is currently abuzz with rumours suggesting that six-time premier class champion Marc Marquez is about to defect from his Repsol Honda contract at the end of the 2023 season and instead join satellite Ducati squad Gresini, riding year-old machinery alongside his brother Alex as a way of escaping his current nightmare at HRC.
Those stories have come from reputable journalists, too. But there’s too much of the rumour that doesn’t add up correctly to convince me Marquez is going anywhere next season.
First of all, Marquez does have, as he repeatedly reminds the media when questioned about his future, a contract for next year with Honda. It’s not just any contract, either. Supposedly modern MotoGP’s most financially lucrative ever – by quite a substantial margin – rumour has it that the 30-year-old is bringing home something in the region of €25million a season as part of the four-year extension he signed in 2019.
With that kind of salary come some big clauses, too – and if speculation is to be believed, leaving with a year to run is likely to cost him a €5m early exit fee on top of his year’s reported salary, in return for what would most likely be a 2024 campaign spent riding essentially for free, given that Gresini absolutely doesn’t have the financial resources to come close to matching even a tenth of Marquez’s current reported earnings.
Honda has, to be fair, made some noises about not standing in the way of any rider who doesn’t want to be there. But Marquez represents its golden goose, is the only thing generating any headlines at all for Honda, and its only chance of any short- to medium-term success barring a small miracle.
Some have instead suggested that, while Marquez can’t just walk away to a factory deal, he can leave for a satellite squad – a clause that, if it exists and is activated, should result in Honda’s legal department being cleared out given the absolutely silly opportunity it would present.
There’s a reason why we’re talking about Marquez going to Gresini on a year-old satellite bike, though: because another strong rumour (from trusted sources) suggests that while the team might be interested in Marquez, Ducati senior management isn’t.
It’s not a secret that the factory, under general manager Gigi Dall’Igna, has not been keen on bringing the Spaniard into the fold previously. And considering it’s won titles without him and has a stacked line-up of Italian homegrown talent for the future, it’s hard to see how that has changed substantially of late.
If Ducati was truly interested in signing him after all, then surely the speculation would not be centred around Gresini but rather around Ducati’s first-tier satellite squad Pramac, which still has a free seat for next year – one that would give Marquez not a year-old bike but a factory-fresh 2024-spec machine for next year.
Take Ducati sporting director Paolo Ciabatti’s answer when asked about it by MotoGP.com on Friday. “I think you should ask the question to Gresini and to Marquez,” he deflected. “As far as we know, Marquez has a contract with Honda for next year. And… you know, Ducati already explained what is our strategy for the riders.
“Obviously in this paddock, you can never say never, we learned this, but there is nothing more I can add.”
Hardly the most ringing endorsement, given the “strategy for the riders” reference surely relates to the aforementioned recent approach of Ducati winning with homegrown talent.
The future direction of travel for the factory Ducati team is relatively assured, with names like Pecco Bagnaia, Enea Bastianini, Jorge Martin and Marco Bezzecchi all proven Ducati winners and all likely to be in red in the future, meaning there’s little desire for Marquez to be slotted in.
Ducati GP winners since 2021
Pecco Bagnaia * – 16
Enea Bastianini * – 4
Jack Miller – 3
Jorge Martin * – 2
Marco Bezzecchi * – 2
* has only raced Ducatis in MotoGP
That means that, even should he join in 2024, it’s likely to be on a one-year deal after which Marquez would go shopping for another factory ride for 2025, with KTM the most probable candidate given its desire to expand its presence on the grid is well known.
Ducati knows that, too, meaning it’s not exactly going to relish the opportunity to let Marquez hoover up a load of trade secrets only to move on to a close rival the following year.
Marquez has, to be fair, been busy fanning the flames of all this talk of him switching teams, with social media posts and cryptic clues to the media designed to make sure that people have been kept guessing.
Given, however, that so far this weekend all the attention at Misano has been firmly shining on him and none of his rivals, it’s entirely possible that a master media manipulator is just having some fun and ensuring plenty of headlines about him at a time when he’s perhaps going through the driest spell of media attention in his whole MotoGP career.
Of course, all of this information isn’t exactly a secret – and if the paddock’s journalists have heard it, then you can be certain that Honda boss Alberto Puig also has, especially given his dual role as a senior figure at championship organiser Dorna (another group that absolutely does not want Marquez to ditch Honda).
With Puig well-aware of what’s going on, it at least means that we’re going to find out on Monday morning what’s happening with Marquez’s MotoGP future – because you can rest assured that if he’s told Honda he’s leaving, then there will be zero chance that he’ll get to ride out at the post-race test on the prototype 2024 RC213V that’ll be waiting in the back of the factory Honda garage.
