For a long while it looked like there was no way the 2020 MotoGP title battle wouldn’t go down to the wire, yet Suzuki and Joan Mir’s late-season breakaway suddenly made an early coronation not only a realistic outcome but extremely likely.
The second-year Spanish MotoGP rider is 37 points clear of his nearest rivals, with only 50 up for grabs in the second Valencia race and the finale at new track Portimao.
Because he only has one win this season, and all of the other riders in title contention have at least one too, he will need to leave Valencia at least 26 points clear to be crowned champion in advance – 25 will not cut it, as it will leave room for others to tie him at Portimao and win on countback.
But that’s unlikely to prove of major significance. In the vast majority of realistic – or unrealistic, for that matter – outcomes, Mir gets the job done in advance.
There are five riders who still retain a mathematical chance of depriving Mir of the 2020 crown. These are Fabio Quartararo (Petronas Yamaha), 37 points back; Alex Rins (Suzuki), 37 points back; Maverick Vinales (Yamaha), 41 points back; Franco Morbidelli (Petronas Yamaha), 45 points back; Andrea Dovizioso (Ducati), 45 points back.
At least one of them (but almost certainly more than one in reality) will lose their title hopes in Sunday’s Valencian Grand Prix. And if Mir finishes on the podium, the crown’s his no matter what any of the other riders do.
Where Mir and his rivals need to finish for the title to be decided in Valencian GP
| Mir | Quartararo | Rins | Vinales | Morbidelli | Dovizioso |
| 1st 2nd 3rd |
x | x | x | x | x |
| 4th 5th 6th |
2nd or worse | 2nd or worse | x | x | x |
| 7th | 2nd or worse | 2nd or worse | 2nd or worse | x | x |
| 8th 9th 10th |
3rd or worse | 3rd or worse | 2nd or worse | x | x |
| 11th | 3rd or worse | 3rd or worse | 2nd or worse | 2nd or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 12th 13th 14th |
4th or worse | 4th or worse | 3rd or worse | 2nd or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 15th | 5th or worse | 5th or worse | 3rd or worse | 2nd or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 16th or worse |
5th or worse | 5th or worse | 4th or worse | 3rd or worse | 3rd or worse |
To put Mir’s chances of sealing the title early in some perspective, he’s been on the podium – which would automatically guarantee his coronation here – in seven of 12 races so far this season.
Of the five races where he didn’t make the top three, were the Jerez 1 result to repeat then Quartararo and Vinales would still be in contention. A repeat of Jerez 2 would only leave Quartararo in the mix. A repeat of Brno would be enough for Morbidelli and Rins. But the other two sets of results, Red Bull Ring 2 and Le Mans, make Mir champion.
“It would be really really important for me, for Suzuki, for the team, because we are not fighting for the title every year,” Mir said on Friday. “The last championship was in 2000 or 2001 [Kenny Roberts Jr, 2000], I don’t remember, and this is a lot of years ago.
“This means that the work that Suzuki did in the past years was really good. I don’t know if we’ll get the title or no, we are trying – but the season that we did at the moment is really good. It would mean a lot if I got the title – but if not we are also really happy.”
Other accolades
The penalties assessed against Yamaha last week make the situation in the teams’ championship very simple. Suzuki has 82 points in hand over Petronas Yamaha, with 90 up for grabs.
This means that, to keep Suzuki from sealing the title at Valencia, Petronas riders Quartararo and Morbidelli need to combine for at least 37 points.
In other words, one of them has to win, and the other has to be second, third or fourth, while Suzuki’s points haul has to be minimal or non-existent.
On the other hand, the manufacturers’ title race has been thrown wide open by the Yamaha sanctions. Each marque only scores with its highest-placed rider in each race, and Suzuki currently leads Ducati by 6 points, Yamaha by 25 and KTM by 29, with only 25 available in Portimao.
A second Suzuki win at Valencia would take Yamaha and KTM out of contention, but it would need all six Ducatis to finish no higher than ninth.
KTM rider Brad Binder leads the race to be rookie of the year by nine points over Honda’s Alex Marquez, and needs to outscore Marquez by 17 points in the Valencian GP to make sure of the accolade before Portimao.
And while Petronas Yamaha has first place the independent team classification virtually sown up (67 points clear of Pramac Ducati, 74 clear of LCR Honda and 88 clear of Tech3 KTM with 90 up for grabs), the battle to finish as top independent rider is still close, with five riders in mathematical contention.
Quartararo is eight points ahead of Morbidelli, 20 ahead of Takaaki Nakagami (LCR Honda), 92 ahead of Jack Miller (Pramac Ducati) and 35 ahead of Miguel Oliveira (Tech3 KTM).
Only Quartararo can seal the independents’ title in advance, and should he win the race he would need Morbidelli no higher than eighth.
