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What had been the closest MotoGP championship battle in years suddenly looks like a near-certain title for Pecco Bagnaia and Ducati after the events of the Australian Grand Prix.
Fabio Quartararo’s Phillip Island crash leaves him 14 points behind Bagnaia with only two races left, meaning Bagnaia could become Ducati’s first champion since Casey Stoner in 2007 if he outscores Quartararo by 11 points at Sepang this weekend. A Bagnaia win with Quartararo fourth or lower would do it.
With Aleix Espargaro convinced Aprilia’s shown it can’t win a title yet – something recent form plus maths backs up – and Enea Bastianini only a distant mathematical long shot, has Bagnaia basically got the crown in his pocket?
Here are our writers’ thoughts.
Phillip Island cemented Yamaha’s defeat
Simon Patterson
I’m not going to say that the title fight is over, per se, because this is MotoGP and if there’s one thing that we know about the series, it’s that it’s regularly unpredictable. But, with the balance of power now firmly tipped in favour of Bagnaia and with two Ducati-friendly circuits remaining, it’s fair to say that Yamaha (and not reigning world champion Quartararo) has lost the crown for 2022.
Phillip Island was the circuit where Quartararo had to take the maximum number of points back off Bagnaia, knowing that Sepang and Valencia would be considerably more unfriendly to him – and he didn’t just fail to do that, he fell off in the process.
The reason for that crash (and the incident beforehand that had already sent him into the gravel) is plain as day: he’s overriding a bike that’s simply not good enough to fight against the might of eight fast and strong Ducatis.
The Desmosedicis improved their historic weak point – mid-corner turning – while not having to really sacrifice any of their top-end speed, and the result is a bike that the Yamaha M1 just cannot match.
That’s going to be a bitter pill to swallow for Quartararo, and it really puts a lot of pressure on the shoulders of the Japanese team’s engineers to deliver the promised faster bike for next year – but even if they do, it’s too little, too late for 2022.
Bagnaia’s left a little chink of light
Matt Beer
The last lap of the Australian GP wasn’t exactly game-changing for the title race, but it did alter things significantly.
Had he stayed in front of Alex Rins and Marc Marquez and won, Bagnaia would’ve been 23 points clear of Quartararo and only needed to outscore him by two points in Sepang to clinch it. Very straightforward indeed.
But 14 points with 50 on the table… that’s more in the realms of tough but not impossible.
It’s the kind of gap that’s very vulnerable in the event of a zero score, something Bagnaia’s had four of already this year.
A mechanical failure, being taken out by someone else’s error, having one of those inexplicable falls that Bagnaia can sometimes be prone to even when leading – there are plenty of scenarios for a non-score.
We’ve also not seen Bagnaia having to defend a championship lead and focus on wrapping things up calmly in MotoGP before (he did get it done in Moto2 down the stretch versus Miguel Oliveira).
For the last two years he’s been on big nothing-to-lose comeback missions. This is a very different psychological situation.
All that said, Bagnaia’s proved expert under pressure in many wheel-to-wheel situations over the last two years. And he’ll have a human shield of seven other Ducatis to keep him out of trouble.
And any situation in which he loses the title still requires Quartararo to score at least 15 points over the next two races. He’s only managed eight points in the last four grands prix.
Bagnaia seems too solid now
Glenn Freeman
Based on what we’ve seen from Bagnaia’s MotoGP career so far, the reflex answer when pondering if he’s capable of throwing away a title lead with two races to go is ‘yes’, because of his track record of inexplicably falling off when things are looking good.
But it seems the time has come to revise that position. The frantic closing stages at Phillip Island were the ultimate test for Bagnaia. It was as if the scenario had been created to put him in a situation where he would fall off. Then he kept his head.
Also, the ‘all Bagnaia needs to do is score x points’ maths is based on Quartararo picking up maximum points from the remaining races. Even if the reigning champion has his head straight for what is now an against-the-odds task, his equipment isn’t going to give him the chance to make Bagnaia’s life that difficult.
As for Aprilia, its transformation from where it was just a couple of years ago has been astonishing. But I’ve always felt Espargaro has only remained on the fringes of this title fight because of Bagnaia’s early-season woes, Quartararo’s at-times sub-standard bike, Suzuki disappearing as a factor after announcing its withdrawal, and Marquez not being around.
Even rain won’t change the picture much
Josh Suttill
Rain-affected races aren’t usually what championship leaders want to face in the crucial title run-in. And Bagnaia, who hasn’t looked wholly comfortable in those types of conditions this year, will be no different.
But if rain hits Sepang and/or Valencia it still probably won’t be enough to stop Bagnaia from becoming champion.
The elite group of wet-weather riders (the likes of Jack Miller, Johann Zarco, Oliveira and Marquez) are usually a safe bet to lock out most or all of the podium places in those types of conditions and they’re the kind of positions Quartararo needs to have any hope of beating Bagnaia.
Quartararo’s Thailand non-score was evidence that he (and importantly his Yamaha team) aren’t much of a force in the wet.
So even if there are some lairy conditions and jeopardy it’s probably more likely to prematurely end Quartararo’s charge than allow him to overhaul Bagnaia.
