MotoGP

How in-doubt finale changes MotoGP title fight at Sepang

by Valentin Khorounzhiy, Simon Patterson
4 min read

The devastating floods that have hit Valencia - scheduled to host the MotoGP 2024 title decider in just two weeks' time - loom large as the series heads into its penultimate round of the season, the Malaysian Grand Prix.

An official death toll of 95, one that is expected to rise, has triggered an outpouring of grief and solidarity from those in the paddock, many of which have had friends and loved ones affected.

Any sporting implications are widely understood as being irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, but have nonetheless inevitably come up at Sepang - specifically for MotoGP title contenders Jorge Martin and Pecco Bagnaia, whose respective outlooks for the Malaysian GP are inevitably influenced by the sudden calendar uncertainty.

Martin and Bagnaia are 17 points apart coming into what should be the penultimate round of the campaign at Sepang, with a total of 74 points still on offer.

But both are well aware that going ahead with the finale at Circuit Ricardo Tormo as scheduled may - and for them, maybe even should - prove untenable.

Circuit Ricardo Tormo

While series promoter Dorna's boss Carmelo Ezpeleta has told AS that the current plan is to try and get the weekend in, given also that the track surface is not damaged and repairing the other affected facilities at Circuit Ricardo Tormo in time should be doable, riders have already expressed varying degrees of unease at racing there on November 15-17.

This is firstly because of the widely-expressed insistence that in hosting the race MotoGP would need to be 100 percent sure that it is not diverting any resources that are needed in tackling the aftermath of the catastrophic flooding - but also because there are concerns of an "ethical" nature, in terms of whether the image and the atmosphere of a MotoGP title decider and subsequent title celebrations would be at all fitting at that time in that place.

Pecco Bagnaia, Ducati, MotoGP

And these are concerns that both Martin and Bagnaia echoed when asked about the situation by The Race.

"It's a really difficult situation. For us, the best thing would be to know right now - to know it today," said Martin. "Then you approach the weekend in a different way.

"But I think Valencia would be difficult [to go ahead with], because even if the track is fixed, if everything is good, I think it's a difficult situation just [in terms of] respect for the people over there. Also in terms of logistics I don't know how the track is exactly, maybe we can't have a full crowd there.

Jorge Martin, Pramac Ducati, MotoGP

"At the end of the day would be difficult. I think the best option would be to race elsewhere. But I think Dorna, MotoGP will do the best choice."

"The most difficult thing for me is the ethical side," Bagnaia followed up. "Honestly, racing there - it's like a party, it's like a moment to enjoy... and knowing the situation right now is what it is, it's not correct.

"We were always super-respectful about what is happening around the world, we are living, everybody, under the same sky.

Pecco Bagnaia, Ducati, MotoGP

"So... it could be wrong to race there.

"In any case, if it was my choice, I would prefer to not race there. But I'm not the one who has to decide it. And what Dorna will decide will be good and fair. But I think we have many more options to try."

Asked specifically whether he would accept a cancelled finale, Bagnaia said: "Pfff. It could be not fair. But I'm not the guy who has to decide this."

The permutations

Jorge Martin and Pecco Bagnaia, Ducati, MotoGP

The 17-point margin between Martin and Bagnaia would need to be 38 points or more coming out of Sepang for Martin to be crowned champion regardless of the scheduling.

One scenario in which this could be achieved is Martin winning both the sprint and the grand prix while Bagnaia non-scores in the former and finishes third in the latter.

But this is a long shot, as Bagnaia himself acknowledged.

"I think it's difficult that I would do a zero and third, and it's also... not 'difficult' but hard to predict two wins by Jorge," he said. "We have to live the weekend and understand what will happen."

Pecco Bagnaia, Ducati, MotoGP

However, should the finale be cancelled, that would set up all sorts of alternate scenarios - for example, Martin clinching the title on Saturday without knowing it, should he outscore Bagnaia by nine points in the sprint and only afterwards learn the finale is cancelled.

Factory Ducati team manager Davide Tardozzi said that "whatever Dorna will decide will be fair for us".

"I am sure that at the latest, Saturday or Sunday, they will tell us something. Let them work and I'm sure they will provide the best finish of the season as possible."

But it is not straightforward to arrange a replacement race date at short notice, given the relatively short list of venues with a suitable climate for MotoGP racing at this time of year and the fact tyre supplier Michelin would have to manufacture extra sets, as the asymmetrical rubber that would be deployed at Valencia can't be run elsewhere.

The Race understands the best available estimate of how long it would take Michelin to manufacture the required tyres is 15-20 days - which means ideally it would need the information as to any replacement finale as soon as possible.

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