The performance of not just Yamaha’s 2022 MotoGP championship contender Fabio Quartararo but of all four of its machines during Australian Grand Prix qualifying is perhaps the biggest sign yet (if one was still needed) of just how much trouble the factory is now in, given its weakness at a circuit where considerably better form was expected of it.
On paper, Phillip Island should suit Yamaha better than any other circuit on the calendar, with its long and flowing beds where corner speed is key: something that the inline four Yamaha should in theory be able to do better than any other machine on the grid (with the possible exception of Suzuki’s GSX-RR), and has in fact been able to do in recent years.
Conversely, the track should punish the Ducati of Quartararo’s title rival Pecco Bagnaia. Long and low to control the power of the almost-absurdly fast engine, the Ducati’s always been a bike that’s struggled to turn, with the lack of mid-corner speed something that then-test rider Casey Stoner was calling out as long ago as 2015.
Yet the top Yamaha on the grid for Sunday’s race will be Quartararo in fifth – while the next of its machines will be test rider and Andrea Dovizioso substitute Cal Crutchlow all the way back in 17th for RNF.
Quartararo’s factory team-mate Franco Morbidelli’s annus horribilis continues in 23rd, behind even straight-from-Moto3 rookie Darryn Binder, riding a big bike for the first time ever at the Aussie circuit.
On the flip side, Ducati has clearly stepped up its game since the championship’s last visit to Phillip Island in 2019. It’s taken pole position with Pramac racer Jorge Martin, and he’s joined on the front row by Bagnaia in third, while his team-mate Johann Zarco made it 50% Ducati on the front two rows in sixth. Only the Honda of Marc Marquez (second) and Aleix Espargaro’s Aprilia in fourth split the odds somewhat.
And it’s not just Phillip Island where this is happening either, but all of the circuits on the calendar traditionally declared as Yamaha territory.
Gresini Ducati’s Fabio Di Giannantonio took a first pole at Mugello before Bagnaia won the race. He in turn started Assen from first and went on to win the race as Quartararo crashed out, repeating the winning feat at Silverstone after Zarco started from first position.
Yamaha’s stranglehold has been beaten, completely flummoxed by what three-time champion (all with Yamaha) Jorge Lorenzo described to The Race as the best Ducati in 15 years.
So far Yamaha has always been able to counter its disadvantage in acceleration and top speed with its corner speed, but Ducati’s aerodynamic advantage in recent years has worked removed the worst of its weaknesses without detracting from its strengths, meaning that the delicate balance that allowed Yamaha to be set the pace so often is now gone.
There is of course some light at the end of the tunnel for Quartararo and co: the promise of a new bike for next year that brings more horsepower and, hopefully, restores some balance to the equation and allows the reigning champion to be competitive at the places where he should be winning, not scraping to pick up some points.
But what about the interim: specifically, the final three rounds that remain of this year’s championship?
Well, since a series of mishaps and errors as Bagnaia won race after race allowed the Ducati racer to close down the gap to only two points with 75 left to play for, it’s been clear that regardless of any predicted advantage, Phillip Island was somewhere where Quartararo simply had to win.
The good news for him is right now it seems like fifth on the grid is enough for him to still be able to challenge for the win – or at least so he believes.
Expecting a close pack race more akin to Moto3 than recent MotoGP, Quartararo’s confident that he’s still got something in the bag – even if he’s going to have to work very hard for the absolutely crucial 25 points on offer on Sunday afternoon.
“It’s not a disaster,” he insisted when asked by The Race about qualifying behind title rivals Bagnaia and Espargaro. “It’s not a disaster because I feel quite OK.
“The front two rows were the main thing, because it’s going to be a strange race. I think everyone has tyre consumption a lot. It’s one of the worst tracks for it all year.
“It’s going to be interesting for sure, not the best for us because we need to bring corner speed and use it to make speed on the exit. It’s going to be a great challenge.
“I don’t know what I need to do but I need to take care of my rear tyres.”
