It’s a slightly contrived statistic, but based on 2022 performances there’s a 10.5% chance of Fabio Quartararo getting the points swing he needs at the Valencian Grand Prix to deny Pecco Bagnaia the MotoGP world championship.
That’s because it’s happened twice before in the preceding 19 races. Back-to-back, in fact, at Barcelona then the Sachsenring in June.
On both occasions Quartararo scored 25 for an ultimately comfortable victory while Bagnaia crashed and scored zero.
Barcelona was not his fault – he was one of multiple victims of Takaaki Nakagami’s clumsy first-corner error.
The Sachsenring was a very different matter – Bagnaia simply making a misjudgement while chasing Quartararo for the lead on just the fourth lap and crashing out solo.
Midfield first-corner pile-ups happen, particularly in the region of the grid (middle of row three) where the cautious Bagnaia has qualified at Valencia.
Bagnaia errors happen – mostly recently at Motegi last month but also when the title was on the line at Misano last year.
So the pro-Quartararo points swing that occurred at Barcelona and the Sachsenring could happen again today at Valencia when he needs it most, couldn’t it?
Mathematically, yes. Realistically, no. Because while those two races were not even five months ago, they seem like a different season altogether in terms of how the balance of power stood between Bagnaia/Ducati and Quartararo/Yamaha.
Though there had been a Ducati on the podium at every race to that point (a remarkable statistic that still stands), the brand’s performance peaks were being scattered around its line-up and its various combinations of chassis and engine specifications.
Things weren’t coalescing around pre-season favourite Bagnaia, so his two wins at Jerez and Mugello were just the start of a recovery mission from a fraught beinning to the year.
He had no qualms about acknowledging his own fragility, lamenting “Fabio is more complete than me… he’s always on top. He never does a mistake” after crashing in his rival’s wake in Germany.
But when it did click for Bagnaia in 2022, it did so emphatically. The Motegi crash was a daft blip, but it’s the only time in the entire second half of the season he’s been off the podium. He followed the Sachsenring disaster with a game-changing run of four straight wins, after which he knew exactly which battles were worth fighting (Motegi aside) and when to bank a podium as he chipped away at the remnants of Quartararo’s lead.
Bagnaia’s riding in Valencia practice raised some alarm bells – awkward and hesitant like the enormity of the situation combined with the almost contradictory simplicity of the task he needs to accomplish (score two points) was making it impossible for him to ride naturally. Perhaps that’s a sign he still has it in him to squander this.
But the majority of evidence from recent months is that Bagnaia will not crack.
Plus the whole Ducati fleet is now operating effectively. Jorge Martin and Jack Miller in first and third on the Valencia grid are two firm obstacles on Quartararo’s path to the race win he needs, and one place behind Bagnaia on the grid is Johann Zarco – who’s already shown he’s willing to drop in behind Bagnaia to support Ducati’s wider interests when necessary.
It’s not just that Bagnaia and Ducati have now found the groove they were scrabbling for when Quartararo last put a 25-point blow on them. Yamaha has at best stagnated, and the idea of it even winning a race seems far-fetched at present.
Barcelona and the Sachsenring were friendly circuits for both Quartararo and the Yamaha’s style. They also fell at a point on the calendar where the Ducati operation was still pulling itself together from its over-complicated start to the season, Honda was floundering without Marc Marquez and Suzuki was still in shellshock from news of its MotoGP team’s impending demise. Underdog Aprilia was the only opponent near the top of its game, and even then only on Aleix Espargaro’s side of the garage.
The Yamaha M1 hasn’t got particularly worse since June. Quartararo’s had the same complaints about it all season – and much of last season, too. It’s just been harder for it to get away with those weaknesses as the rest of the field – Ducati in particular – started delivering something closer to its actual potential.
So even if Bagnaia is again wiped out, Nakagami-style, at Turn 1 at Valencia, or succumbs to the pressure of the occasion and throws it down the road Sachsenring-style, the chances of Quartararo getting the win he needs are now so much lower than they were in June, although this weekend is probably the most competitive he’s looked since he last won back in Germany in June.
The examples of Barcelona and the Sachsenring show a last-gasp title shock is possible. The context of how those examples played out, and how different it all seems compared to the competitive picture of recent races, shows what an unlikely upset it would be.
