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With the news this morning that Monster Energy Yamaha and Maverick Vinales have parted ways effective immediately, it means that the Japanese manufacturer has a hole to fill in its 2021 MotoGP line-up for the remainder of the 2021 season – with test rider Cal Crutchlow believed to be waiting in the wings to step into the Spaniard’s seat at least in the interim.
But the fact that the decision to sack Vinales has potentially hurt Yamaha’s chances to fight for not one but two championships is a sign of the severity of the team’s feelings towards him following this month’s incredible reports that Yamaha believes he deliberately attempted to destroy the engine of his M1 during the Styrian Grand Prix.
While Vinales’ former team-mate and current championship leader Fabio Quartararo enjoys a healthy lead in the riders’ championship, things are quite different in the teams’ and constructors’ title races – both much more important to Japanese manufacturers than to their European rivals, especially in a season where a triple crown looked like a distinct possibility.
With a healthy 47-point lead over Joan Mir and Pecco Bagnaia, Quartararo looks well on the path to wrapping the riders’ title up with seven races remaining – but things are slightly different in the other two title races. In the teams’ award, Yamaha’s advantage is 37 points – but with only one rider scoring right now, that’s going to be eaten into rapidly by second-placed Ducati.
And in the constructors championship, Yamaha has surrendered its lead, with the Japanese brand now trailing Ducati by three points. Mind you, it is in theory an easier battle for Quartararo alone to win thanks to only the top score from each marque counting in a given grand prix – but it’s still a championship race where Yamaha should want all the help it can get.
With those title races hanging in the balance, it’s indicative of the strength of feeling within the team that it is willing to compromise its chances simply to get rid of Vinales halfway through the year.
Clearly things aren’t working within the team, though, and it’s been a case of needing to excise the issues before they start to fester into something even more toxic than what they already are.
Quartararo is clearly the favourite right now for the 2021 riders’ championship, and the last thing that Yamaha wants is disruption on his side of the garage.
With Quartararo’s side so far largely untouched by the drama on the other side of the box, the team have to do everything they can to keep that relaxed atmosphere in the garage, to ensure that the 22-year-old has minimal distractions and the best chance possible of title success.
More than that, though, it really does feel like Yamaha’s hands were tied by Vinales’ actions at the Styrian Grand Prix. Simply put, given the severity of the accusations – and given Vinales admitted fault and apologised – Yamaha had to take action against him.
Letting go of Vinales mid-season would not quite be a death blow to Yamaha’s triple crown hopes even if the ride went unfilled for the rest of the season – which it obviously will not, and which is against the regulations anyway.
But Quartararo has done a pretty remarkable job of spearheading Yamaha’s challenge on all three fronts. In the manufacturers’ standings, he accounts for eight of the 11 ‘top scores’ contributing to Yamaha’s tally.
His own points record is just 28 points behind Yamaha’s, with Vinales accounting for 15 of the excess points and Franco Morbidelli for the remaining 13. It means that without Vinales Yamaha would’ve faced a hefty deficit, but with just three points of a gap to Ducati now that he’s gone from the line-up, Quartararo’s scoring rate means it’s not an insurmountable hurdle.
At the same time, it will still be something of an uphill battle given Ducati has now had Jorge Martin hit top form, meaning it should enjoy having four extremely competitive riders on factory-spec bikes for the remainder of the campaign.
The teams’ title situation is somehow slightly more promising despite requiring scores from two riders. Extrapolating Quartararo’s current rate of scoring to add to Yamaha’s tally, versus the rates of scoring by Francesco Bagnaia and Jack Miller in the factory Ducati team, would leave Yamaha and Ducati level on 391 points after seven more races. Obviously, the second bike will contribute something so theoretically Yamaha is still projected to win – but it doesn’t leave a lot of margin.
Yamaha’s mission to minimise the damage from Vinales’ exit in the teams’ and manufacturers’ title races will be aided if it manages to fill the seat vacated by Vinales sooner rather than later – a move that seems to be set to happen at next weekend’s British Grand Prix.
It looks like, as first reported by The Race, Vinales will be replaced with immediate effect at Silverstone by test rider Cal Crutchlow. Already riding for satellite squad Petronas Yamaha at the two races in Austria in place of the injured Morbidelli, he looks all but certain to step up to the factory squad next week.
And while Crutchlow didn’t quite set the world on fire at the Red Bull Ring, that was largely to be expected given his race rustiness, his time off the bike, and the significant weaknesses of Morbidelli’s 2019-spec Yamaha.
The slowest bike on the grid at one of the fastest tracks on the calendar, it was always going to create a struggle for him – and that was reflected with two 17th-place finishes.
But with Crutchlow promoted to the factory squad, closer to race speed now and heading to a track where he has performed very well in the past, it should be a slightly different case at Silverstone for him, and there’s every possibility of him taking at least some points for the factory team.
It doesn’t need to be a huge haul for him to decisively tip the balance, either – a scenario that was demonstrated by Jorge Lorenzo’s contributions to Honda in 2019.
Suffering a terrible season with the Repsol team, the five-time world champion only picked up 28 points all season long – but when combined with Marc Marquez’s huge haul, it means Honda completed the triple crown of rider, team and constructor championships (with both Lorenzo’s contributions and those of his stand-in Stefan Bradl proving integral in what was a 13-point teams’ championship triumph over nearest rival Ducati).
However, any promotion for Crutchlow is believed to only be a temporary stop-gap measure, according to The Race’s sources in the MotoGP paddock. It’s believed that plans are already well underway within the Yamaha camp to have Morbidelli see out the remainder of the year on the factory bike as soon as he returns to full fitness.
Already set to join the team next year as Vinales’ long-term replacement, Morbidelli will get the chance to make an early move to the factory team as soon as his rehabilitation from his major knee reconstruction is completed, in an attempt to both acclimate him to the move early and to continue racking up points in the teams’ championship race.
And in the meantime, Crutchlow gets promoted from Morbidelli’s current-spec 2019 bike onto a brand new 2021 M1 complete with the ability to test parts and components for the 2022 bike that’s likely to be a close evolution to the current machine, supercharging the team’s research and development strategy the way that Bradl was able to for Honda last year while replacing Marc Marquez.
Even better for Crutchlow, he’ll get the chance to work with a familiar face in the factory garage too, as he joins his testing crew chief Silvano Galbusera, recently promoted from the test squad to the race team at Vinales’ request, replacing the Spaniard’s long-time friend and technical partner Esteban Garcia – a move that should now make Crutchlow’s transition as seamless as possible.
So will all this moving and shaking within the team affect Yamaha’s chances of winning the team’s championship? Yes, undoubtedly, because regardless of Vinales attitude and issues, he was still managing to score valuable points for the squad in 2021. But was it a move worth taking? Clearly Yamaha thinks so – and it remains to be seen whether it’ll be one that it comes to regret.
