There’s been much talk over the past few years of how we’re currently in a golden age of MotoGP racing, as records tumble, riders finish closer and closer together, and premier class races sometimes look more like Moto3 races.
The numbers back that up, with the 2019 Qatari Grand Prix (below) the closest-ever top 15, with only 15.093 seconds covering the gap between race winner Andrea Dovizioso and then-KTM rider Johann Zarco in 15th.
Of the top 10 closest races in history, all of them have come since halfway through the 2017 season, highlighting just how hard it is to break away as MotoGP’s almost perfectly balanced rulebook has allowed all six manufacturers to close right up on each other.
But that’s had a big impact on some of MotoGP’s biggest names – and it’s been a key component in allowing Marc Marquez to become the series’ dominant champion since 2013.
Thanks to closer than ever races, qualifying has become absolutely crucial – and it’s a contributing factor to the end of the dominance of traditional ‘Sunday men’ like Valentino Rossi and, more recently, Andrea Dovizioso.
Rossi in particular is known for his ability to pull a warm-up miracle out of the bag, looking to be struggling throughout a race weekend and putting in a lacklustre qualifying performance on Saturday afternoon – only to find something new in time for Sunday morning and to come out guns blazing in the main event.
Dovizioso often seems to be facing similar issues, with the long-time Ducati rider’s qualifying performances very much the weakness in his game.
Often noted for bad luck – something that once again came into play last time out at Barcelona when he was wiped out in the opening lap – it’s equally credible to put down his misfortunes in the opening laps of races to having to fight his way through from the mid-pack.
And when you compare their performances with those of Marquez or current championship leader Fabio Quartararo, it’s obvious just how much of a disadvantage the Sunday specialists are giving themselves.
Rossi now has 76 premier class race wins to his name, but backs that up with a mere 51 pole positions; the nine-time champion’s last win from pole came in 2015 and he’s only managed the feat twice since 2009.
Dovizioso’s record is even worse: scoring only seven poles against his 15 wins, only two of his victories have come from the number one spot.
Now weigh that against Marquez, who has taken an incredible 62 pole positions alongside his 56 race wins. A front-row regular who only started off it three times in 19 races last year, he won from the number one spot six times last season.
Things become even more impressive when you look at Quartararo’s record. Polesitter a stunning eight times from his 27 MotoGP races to date, he converted two of them into his maiden two victories at the opening round of 2020, with four more poles handing him podium success.
The excellent performances of late from Suzuki rider Joan Mir have further made the point of how important qualifying is, too. Now four times a podium finisher in the past five races, he’s been demonstrably the fastest man on track for the latter part of all of those races.
However, handing himself a huge handicap before things even get underway with terrible qualifying performances, it’s obvious to all watching what has hindered him. Making it to the second row only twice in eight races, he starts races being forced to waste time charging through the pack.
In fact, so far only a front-row qualifier once in his entire MotoGP career at the second round at the Red Bull Ring, it’s no surprise that the Styrian Grand Prix also looked like his best chance ever to chalk up his debut race win until the red flags ended his charge – ironically, the only race since August where he missed out on the podium.
But simply saying that riders must get faster in qualifying belies the complexity of fixing that issue, because as the gap at the end of races has closed down, so has the gap in qualifying.
The average spread across the top ten in this year’s eight rounds to date is a mere 0.659 seconds, as the closer racing impacts not just races. In fact, at the Styrian Grand Prix, Quartararo was forced to start from 10th despite finishing Saturday a mere 0.286 seconds slower than poleman Pol Espargaro.
And perhaps that’s exactly why Marquez is just so good at not only winning races and titles but also taking front-row starts because in an era where margins are razor-thin and motorbikes are increasingly well-matched, it still comes down to the rider who is brave (some would say stupid) enough to risk it all for a time attack.
It’s a skill that Marquez is sublime at, it’s something that youthfulness and a feeling of immortality allows Quartararo to excel at, and it’s why Maverick Vinales is often unbeatable when he manages to gel perfectly with his Yamaha M1.
And until their rivals find a way to close that gap, it’s something that’s going to allow them to continue winning.
