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After MotoGP’s five-week summer break, the burst back into action at today’s Styrian Grand Prix is more than overdue.
But with inclement weather hitting the Red Bull Ring this morning and with heavier rain forecast for later in the day, it’s something of a lottery what’s going to happen when the lights go out.
Rather surprisingly, given that we’re at a track that has traditionally played to the strengths of MotoGP’s V4-engined bikes, it looks like in dry conditions it’s the inline fours that have the fastest pace.
Front row starter and championship leader Fabio Quartararo has the fastest race pace on paper, ahead of the Suzuki of reigning world champion Joan Mir and Quartararo’s Yamaha team-mate Maverick Vinales.
It’ll need a clear break from the lights for any of them to make it a race – but that’s not completely unreasonable; let’s not forget that in 2020 it should have been Mir who took victory at one of the two races at the Red Bull Ring until a red flag and a restart brought an end to his charge.
Yet that pace in the dry is set to come to naught thanks to the one element that can’t be controlled: the weather forecast at the Austrian circuit.
Riders were greeted with wet conditions this morning in warm-up, and even Quartararo admitted yesterday after qualifying that the forecast would throw a spanner into the works.
“I think considering the weather, the best plan is to have no plan,” he admitted when asked by The Race about Sunday prospects.
“You can say if it’s dry we’ll do this and if it’s wet we’ll try this – but when you make the first corner the plan is totally different, changing. You just have to choose the correct tyres and enjoy the race.”
It was Honda’s Marc Marquez who topped the only fully wet session of the weekend, with the physical limitations of his ongoing recovery from injury somewhat nullified by the conditions.
It remains to be seen if that’s something that will translate into a race, however – perhaps evidenced best by his crash out of the lead of a wet race at Le Mans earlier this year.
Instead, it has to be second-fastest in warm-up man Jack Miller who will start as favourite.
Strong in qualifying despite an error that pushed him back to the second row, he’s one of MotoGP’s rain specialists – and it’s likely that he will be the man who tries to set an early pace.
In the dry, he’s perhaps a little behind Ducati team-mate Pecco Bagnaia, who will start alongside rookie sensation and polesitter Jorge Martin on the front row, especially given the propensity of the Red Bull Ring to chew up tyres.
A surprise performance could come from the local manufacturer, though, if the rain does come.
KTM’s charge in the dry was largely neutralised by Friday’s crash for team leader Miguel Oliveira, with a fracture to his hand meaning that he’s been off the pace since then.
Team-mate Brad Binder is a Sunday specialist and will pull something out of the bag, but the South African has also conceded that he’s been somewhat lost with set-up all weekend.
In the wet, though, it could be a different story. Both satellite Tech3 KTM riders Danilo Petrucci and Iker Lecuona are great in tricky conditions, and with both spurned by the Austrian factory only yesterday and out to prove a point (and to find a job for 2022), there’ll be no shortage of motivation.
