We don't yet have a full picture of what 'second-year Pedro Acosta' looks like, in part thanks to the KTM MotoGP star's meteoric rise through the ranks.
In his year two in the Red Bull Rookies Cup it took until round seven before someone else got to win. In Moto3 he needed just the one year. In Moto2 Tony Arbolino put up a fight at the start of his sophomore campaign, but soon enough the inexorable march to Acosta's coronation began.
It's a reasonable bet that a MotoGP coronation probably doesn't await Acosta this year. And it certainly feels a safe bet that he will not reel off 10 wins in a row like Marc Marquez, the previous 'chosen one', did in his second year in 2014 to wrap up a title even more impressive than his 2013 crown as a rookie.
But that's more to do with a difference in bike. In terms of performance on the rider side, it is hard to look at the testing results without wondering whether Acosta is taking a Marquez-level 'leap' or at least close to it.
KTM's picture from the first 2025 test at Sepang was in theory quite cloudy - the manufacturer favoured development work over any kind of performance running, a philosophy all factories followed but KTM seemingly followed more than others - but Buriram was more informative.
In terms of Acosta though, the picture has been consistent. Across the five days of testing, he was: the quickest KTM by a tenth of second; the quickest KTM by three tenths; the quickest KTM by four tenths; the quickest KTM by a tenth; the quickest KTM by five tenths.
In race runs, he was also - say it with me - the quickest KTM.
The factory KTM team was very limited in terms of media availability at Buriram, but Acosta did say that "we got on the pace here quite fast, which is not quite normal for us", that the performance was "quite competitive" and that it was "for sure my best pre-season but also maybe the best pre-season of KTM so far".
And Tech3 chief Herve Poncharal's words after Buriram suggest that the data they have inside the KTM camp corroborates the outside impression.
Speaking to Italian outlet GPone, Poncharal said that Pedro "will be up there" fighting at the front and is now "the benchmark for the three other KTM aces".
"He has only ridden KTM in MotoGP so far, his riding style suits KTM 100%, he loves the bike," said Poncharal, whose team fielded Acosta last year.
"Pedro has so much trust in the front wheel, he is an exemplary late braker, which is why he can often overtake when turning into corners. He is currently the best KTM rider."
It's a serious amount of confidence given Brad Binder was the lead KTM in the standings last year, not Acosta. But while Binder should make it closer than testing looked - he's never the best rider to judge by testing - if Acosta is taking the second-year leap this looks like there might not be anything Binder can do.
But what would it mean for Acosta himself?
In Marquez's case, the second-year leap came with Honda on top of the world, proven winner before and during and only really having to worry about Yamaha, with all the other manufacturers effectively irrelevant at that point.
Marquez could have every confidence that Honda would deliver title-calibre bikes year after year - OK, it didn't in 2015, but was then sufficient for him to dominate the following years.
Acosta cannot have that confidence - as it stands, with the vote on KTM's restructuring plans coming up on February 25, he cannot be confident there will be a full-spec, full-factory KTM bike for him to ride even in 2026, much less for the new ruleset in 2027.
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What if the 2014 version of Marc Marquez had properly hit the free agent market? How crazy would that be in a modern-spec MotoGP, where every factory has something to offer, and even privateer teams can win championships?
If Acosta's now as good as he's looked this pre-season, we could well find out.
