The 2022 MotoGP season gets underway this weekend with the Qatar Grand Prix once again playing host to the season-opener.
It will mark the start of a record-breaking 21-race season that’s already built up plenty of anticipation through the winter.
But who will surprise? Who will disappoint? And who will be crowned the 2022 MotoGP champion?
We assembled a team of writers – Simon Patterson, David Gruz, Valentin Khorounzhiy, Matt Beer and Josh Suttill – to make their predictions and answers those all-important questions.
How many manufacturers will win a race?
SP: Maybe I’m being a little optimistic here, but I genuinely believe that all six manufacturers are capable of winning a race in 2022. Obviously, it’s only Aprilia that is still to do so, but with a much better bike, with Maverick Vinales onboard it now, and with the return of some of its more favoured tracks (like Phillip Island) to the calendar post-COVID, there is every chance now of six winning bikes.
DG: I’ll go with four. Ducati and, since the calendar includes Austin and the Sachsenring, Honda are surefire picks. Suzuki also looks like it’s back to winning ways. And while it might be Yamaha’s turn to have a season with crippling issues, the factory riders should still be able to pull off a couple of wins.
VK: My gut feeling is that the more versatile Honda and improved Suzuki will cut off paths to victory for Aprilia and KTM. So, four.
MB: I love optimism, so I’m going for all of them. But that’s not just blind hope, it felt during pre-season episode of The Race MotoGP Podcast like we were really struggling to find significant negatives about anyone. Even KTM, for all its fluctuations last year, was a race winner in a straight fight when things clicked. And Aprilia winning with Maverick Vinales is too fun a fairytale not to happen (even if Aleix Espargaro really deserves to be the one who gets its breakthrough after all the work he’s done).
Surprise of the season
VK: Alex Rins has the reputation of a serial crasher, but his MotoGP career does include a streak of 11 top-six finishes in a row. I expect him to channel some of that again.
DG: Darryn Binder will be Yamaha’s strongest rider in the wet.
JS: Raul Fernandez. While the Spaniard is hardly lacking hype or expectation, I still believe he’ll surprise in 2022. He’ll earn a pair of race wins and make a factory promotion for 2023 – whether that be within KTM or elsewhere – inevitable. He’ll finish ahead of both factory KTM riders and his Moto2 sparring partner Remy Gardner.
SP: Luca Marini. The VR46 Ducati rider didn’t get a chance to really show off his talent in 2021, suffering from a compressed pre-season that limited his time to adapt to the bike and struggling with ergonomics – he’s the biggest rider on the grid now. But both of those have been fixed and, though he’s admittedly a slow learner, it seems like he’s on the verge of getting up to speed.
Disappointment of the season
JS: I fear 2022 will be another false dawn for Pol Espargaro. Expectations and confidence are high after successful pre-season tests, but it’s an all-too-familiar tale that often ends with disappointment. This year’s Honda is clearly more to his liking and he’ll pick up a couple of podiums, but it won’t be enough to prevent the Japanese manufacturer to look elsewhere for 2023.
SP: Someone has to be the loser when it comes to development, and my gut feeling is that in 2022 it’s going to be KTM for the second season in a row. Its pre-season testing didn’t go according to plan, really, with none of its riders setting the world alight, and talk about taking the potential out of the bike it already had doesn’t suggest it’s made a big step forward.
DG: Luca Marini. I expect his season will be decent enough in isolation, but within this Ducati camp of enormous talent he will be shown up.
Marquez’s championship position and win total
DG: First place, seven wins. No Ducati will be able to truly dominate the others and so they will steal points from each other, and Marquez will be in podium contention week in week out.
JS: Third place, four wins. I think it will be something of a feast or famine season for Marquez. An early spate of crashes and continued injury problems will thwart any chance of a title challenge but he’ll come back swinging with a streak of wins in the second half of the season to move up into the top three in the championship.
MB: Championship winner, four wins. If his fitness really is near enough sorted and Honda really is that much better, I still believe he’s the best rider on the grid. It may not have looked like it at Jerez in 2020, but he does know how to pick his battles and the events of the last two years will have sharpened that side of his game. In a year that could be wildly open, Marquez has the experience of nailing a successful title campaign even when others might often have faster packages.
SP: He’ll win three or four races, with a few of the rounds almost surefire bets for him – places like the Circuit of the Americas and Sachsenring, where he showed last year he can win even when he’s not fully fit. But lingering injury concerns remain and, with a new Honda to still wrap his brain around, I don’t think he’ll be a true title contender. Top three.
VK: First place, six wins, with the title won through a very high podium rate.
Top rookie
DG: Raul Fernandez. If his KTM is half-decent, he is going to outshine the Ducati rookies.
VK: I really like Fabio Di Giannantonio as something of an outside shout, if the ’21 Ducati proves head and shoulders above the ’22 KTM. If not, Raul Fernandez.
SP: It all depends on the level of the KTM. If the bike is good enough, then Raul Fernandez is easily the most talented of the bunch and will stand out – and even if the bike isn’t up to scratch, expect to see him as top KTM on a regular basis. Among the other rookies, Marco Bezzecchi just edges ahead for me.
Top independent rider
DG: If he can stay healthy, Jorge Martin will not only be the top independent rider but also a legit title contender.
SP: The most certain I feel about any topic in this article: it’ll be Jorge Martin. He’s Ducati’s next future superstar, all but destined for a factory seat in 2023, and they’ll give him the full resources he wants in order to both convince him to stay and to best prepare him. The only person I see stopping that will be Martin himself, as he tends to be injury-prone when he crashes.
VK: I feel like I put this category in for everyone to say Jorge Martin, which is a bit boring. Anyway, Jorge Martin.
Will Quartararo and Mir re-sign or move elsewhere?
MB: Suzuki’s new bike looking good and Livio Suppo turning up probably give Mir the reassurance he needs to stay put. Quartararo doesn’t sound like a man keen to stay put. But where’s he going to go? Anyway, that’s my logical answer. My preference would be they both jump ship and start a highly clickable rider market reshuffle frenzy.
SP: I think despite all the talk about what’s going to happen, both of them will end up staying put in the end. Realistically, there’s only one option for both of them, at Repsol Honda, and a resurgent Pol Espargaro might well be enough to nix their chances before they even get an offer made.
DG: It’s hard to see both move, but it’s more likely that Mir will find a new team if Suzuki hasn’t made sufficient gains.
One main determining factor will be Pedro Acosta’s start to Moto2 life, as he might become a more desirable rider for manufacturers – if he’s not already – than even the previous two MotoGP champs.
Manufacturers’ champion
DG: Hard to see Ducati not winning this with the eight riders it has.
SP: Ducati. It dominates the grid with eight out of the 24 bikes and while it’s only the top machine for every manufacturer that scores points, both the depth of their field and the simple odds against factories like Suzuki and Aprilia with two bikes each means Ducati has got a considerable advantage.
MB: It can only be Ducati with that strength in depth.
Riders’ champion
SP: There are four clear favourites: reigning champion Fabio Quartararo, last year’s runner-up Pecco Bagnaia, previous winner Joan Mir and six-time victor Marc Marquez. They’ve all got a good chance, but for me there’s something about the way Mir has came out of pre-season testing (on a significantly better Suzuki) that makes me think he’s going to prove that 2020 was no fluke.
DG: Marc Marquez. He will need to return to his scary consistent form of 2018-2019, but bet against him at your own peril.
VK: My pick is Marc Marquez, but there are four other riders (Quartararo, Bagnaia, Mir, Martin) who would not be surprising champions in my book.
MB: Quartararo’s dissatisfaction with Yamaha life + my slight doubts about whether Bagnaia’s 2021 brilliance would be sustainable in a genuine title fight where he didn’t have nothing to lose + Suzuki’s lack of resources + Jorge Martin still being in a satellite team = Marquez beats them all to the title.
Will the title be decided in the final race or with races to spare?
VK: The more races there are, the worse the chances are of a final-race decider. And 21 is a lot of races. I think it’ll be resolved at Sepang.
DG: I expect a final-race thriller with Marquez against more than one Ducati and potentially even a Suzuki or Quartararo in the title picture.
SP: A final round title decider is rare, and I don’t think it’s something we’re going to see this year. The final block of races before Valencia, with five races in six weeks on three different continents, is just too intense – and any mistake made during it will cost a heavy price. It’ll be hot, jetlag will be rife, people will get sick, injuries won’t have time to heal up, and it’ll affect what happens on track.
MB: It’ll be sorted with at least one race to spare, and that’ll be infuriating. I don’t quite get how MotoGP can produce the greatest on-track competition in all of worldwide motorsport and barely ever have a final-round decider. Is the distribution spread in the points system just not quite weighted right? Is there always someone who’s just too consistent to be beaten? Someone (Val, this feels like how you spend days off) needs to simulate a bunch of alternative points systems and work it out so MotoGP gets the drama it deserves right to the end.
