For most of the season, attention around the prospect of a Moto2 veteran finally getting a MotoGP chance in 2025 had been focused on American rider Joe Roberts’ chances at Trackhouse.
But, according to new reports, if a long-time Moto2 stalwart is going to get a premier-class break next season it’ll be Thai racer Somkiat Chantra.
And unfortunately for Roberts, that makes total sense given the current premier-class landscape.
ROBERTS VS TRACKHOUSE'S LONG-TERM US PLAN
Since the very beginning of the Trackhouse Aprilia project last November at the season finale at Valencia, team owner Justin Marks has been adamant about one thing: the desire is to have American talent in the team - but it’s not going to come at the expense of results in the short term.
In a nutshell, no one’s going to be gifted a seat there based on a passport alone.
When Marks first made those comments, there didn’t look like there were any American talents who’d deserve a MotoGP spot on merit any time soon, so all the initial talk from the squad was about investing in grassroots racing to produce the next generation of stars rather than promoting someone into failure.
“The holy grail for us is an American rider on our bikes winning a MotoGP race,” Marks told The Race earlier this year, “but we’re a long way away from that. We’re a long way away from it in the sport right now, and we’re not going to force it.
“One of the things that we’re going to do at Trackhouse is understand the current status of the American talent pool and what the development ladder in the United States looks like.
“Do we need to go work with MotoAmerica and understand where that is right now? How are kids getting started, and where are they getting started? Where are the strong series that are being offered to kids?
“We’re looking potentially at Trackhouse making investments in the United States to bolster up the development pool and give more and more kids an opportunity.”
The picture then changed significantly, with Roberts’ remarkable run of form in this year’s Moto2 season something very unexpected for a rider who’d only won once since joining the series in mid-2017.
Still sitting third in the championship despite missing a round through injury and on the podium four times in 10 races, it’s by far the most consistent performances we’ve ever seen from the Californian.
And it is painted in an even better light by the fact the rest of the top five, both above and below Roberts in the standings, is made up of riders on Boscoscuro bikes, while Roberts is leading the way for Moto2's once-dominant manufacturer Kalex.
However, in the context of his wider Moto2 career, now 120 races long, his three podiums in a row earlier this year are a minor (if positive) blip - and, with other riders in the past delivering similar blips that they were unable to convert into long-term success, it seems that there are still cold feet in the MotoGP paddock when it comes to Roberts.
Trackhouse management has always shown due respect when discussing Roberts, but without ever suggesting his 2024 Moto2 surge would make any difference to their long-term US rider development strategy - no matter how loud the external clamour for a 2025 MotoGP deal might've been.
OGURA DEVIATES FROM HONDA'S PLAN
That’s why it seems like Trackhouse is going to bet on his Moto2 rival Ai Ogura to replace Miguel Oliveira instead, promoting the former Honda protege into its Aprilia squad as he battles for the Moto2 title for the second time in three years.
Up until now, it’s always seemed preordained that should Ogura make his way into the premier class, it would be to replace Taka Nakagami at LCR Honda in the Idemitsu-backed seat that’s generally been earmarked for Honda’s leading Japanese prospect.
Ogura actually rejected that seat in 2023 given the difficulties that Honda was facing at the time (and still faces now). As he continues to star in Moto2, it’s no surprise either that he’s attracted interest from Honda’s MotoGP rivals - or that a non-Honda MotoGP seat might be more appealing for him.
CHANTRA INTO CONTENTION
So if there is an LCR vacancy for 2025, the door is potentially open for another Southeast Asian rider.
Chantra is himself no stranger to brief spells of impressive performance that aren’t sustained. At 25, Chantra is two years younger than Roberts, and he hasn’t been in Moto2 quite as long (having joined the grid in 2019).
But he represents a huge market, with a massive fanbase in his native Thailand (he gets his own grandstand at Buriram, just like Marc Marquez and Valentino Rossi do at the track), and from a country where LCR backer Idemitsu has a decent chunk of the fuel and lubricants market.
There are commercial reasons alongside his on track performance that could well mean that he gets an unexpected promotion.
A MotoGP promotion for Chantra might seem reminiscent of Malaysian racer Hafizh Syahrin getting a premier class seat at Tech3 in 2018 despite a rather average Moto2 record. But while Chantra hasn’t succeeded consistently, his two wins and six podiums headline far more impressive Moto2 peaks than Syahrin managed.
Ultimately, there’s not a compelling performance case for Chantra to get the nod over Nakagami (who himself hinted earlier this year that he might not want to continue on the struggling Honda bike, although has changed his stance since).
Roberts v. Chantra in Moto2
Starts: Roberts - 121 / Chantra - 97
Wins: Roberts - 2 / Chantra - 2
Podiums: Roberts - 8 / Chantra - 6
Points per start: Roberts - 4.26 / Chantra - 4.41
But with one seat at Honda reserved for a rider with Idemitsu backing and with Nakagami (himself a racer without much Moto2 pedigree) now seven years into a MotoGP career that hasn’t delivered a single podium finish, it may well be that Idemitsu and Honda think it’s time for a change regardless.
And Chantra is now on pole for a MotoGP chance if they do.
