The 2025 MotoGP grid has edged ever closer to being finalised as the series returned from its 2024 summer break at Silverstone.
Eight of the 22 full-time seats were still officially available coming into the British Grand Prix weekend, but one contract was confirmed on Thursday - and almost all the other 'vacant' rides are either seemingly already filled behind the scenes or at least have a strong favourite attached to them.
Only one remains totally uncertain - but it does not currently appear like it will offer refuge to the two established premier-class riders who are set to join the retiring Aleix Espargaro in dropping off the grid.
THE ODD MEN OUT
Both four-time MotoGP race winner Jack Miller and Moto2 2022 champion Augusto Fernandez are on course to pay the price for their troubled campaigns on their respective KTM/Gas Gas RC16s.
Miller's MotoGP pedigree means a u-turn can't be ruled out, but while he could be a logical fit for a Pramac Yamaha gig or a switch to Trackhouse Aprilia, there are riders ahead of him in the queue for both.
"Honestly speaking, frankly, at the moment I've got nothing," he admitted to the media on Thursday.
"Not one single contract. Could be headin' home. Early shower."
It is not clear whether Miller refers to contracts from just within MotoGP or contracts overall - he is understood to be an option for Ducati's World Superbike team, but his future there depends on the outcome of a reported game of contractual cat and mouse between Ducati and its two-time WSBK champion Alvaro Bautista.
Miller would "of course" be interested in World Superbikes, where "the level is fantastic".
But he also said: "I definitely felt like I definitely had more to give here. I'm holding out hope until all doors are closed. But, honestly speaking, it ain't looking good."
Fernandez, who like Miller has been cast out of the KTM MotoGP rider system in favour of new arrivals Maverick Vinales and Enea Bastianini, also harbours hope of a last-second MotoGP reprieve - though if Miller's is a long shot, Fernandez's is almost impossible to imagine.
He is well-aware, too, answering a query about how things are looking for his MotoGP future with a quick self-deprecating: "Well, not good!
"Not looking great, but I wanted to do all the meetings possible, till the very last moment, to try to stay here. And then we will see.
"Of course I am open to everything. There's some Superbike calls, interesting calls also. So it's not the end of the world. I'm open to everything."
DEAL(S) DONE
A two-year extension for Yamaha factory rider Alex Rins was signed and swiftly announced on Thursday.
Rins hasn't had the smoothest time as a Yamaha factory rider so far. His past year as a MotoGP rider has been dominated by injuries, and while he's been a credible rival to team-mate Fabio Quartararo over one lap, Quartararo has dominated him in race trim.
But Rins' upside and reputation for development acumen are well-known in MotoGP, and it never appeared like either Yamaha or Rins himself were likely to go in a different direction for 2025.
"Alex has done a good job this year," stressed Quartararo.
"The feedback he has been providing has been the same as me, even if the riding style is totally different."
Meanwhile, another name appears to have been taken off the board a while ago.
Fabio Di Giannantonio told MotoGP.com that "everything is done" apart from the announcement in terms of his 2025 plans, and indicated that the reason for the delay in that announcement was as simple as the summer break.
The Italian is expected to keep his place in the VR46 team while being upgraded to a factory-spec Ducati bike and a factory contract.
That should then leave two to-be-announced seats in the Ducati ranks.
One - presumably the Gresini one alongside Alex Marquez - is to go to Fermin Aldeguer, who already has a Ducati MotoGP contract in his hands, while the other is likely reserved for Franco Morbidelli, who said on Thursday that "VR46 is on it" in regards to his future - referencing the Academy (which serves as his management) rather than the MotoGP team, but also further emphasising the likelihood of Moribdelli racing for Rossi's outfit.
THE TRACKHOUSE TWIST
The reporting that long-time Honda protege Ai Ogura will get a surprise MotoGP graduation with Trackhouse Aprilia rather than on any Honda RC213V bike appears to have been corroborated by paddock comments.
Miller's pessimism at securing a deal was one piece of evidence, while incumbent Miguel Oliveira also indicated he was potentially out of the running at Trackhouse.
"Soon I will be able to tell you guys what we've been preparing. I can't tell you now," Oliveira said.
But he admitted to MotoGP.com that it "looks like there is a very, very strong possibility that I won't be riding an Aprilia next year", and that this has "helped" him advance in negotiations elsewhere.
He described Pramac as a "very, very attractive" option.
Ogura's fellow Japanese rider Takaaki Nakagami said of the Moto2 frontrunner's 2025 prospects: "At the end, he'll decide Aprilia or Honda, I'm not sure... of course I'm happy to see that Japanese riders aren't only [wanted by] Japanese manufacturers.
"It means he has showed he has a good talent. Good for the future of Japanese riders as well, I'm really happy."
NAKAGAMI MAKES UP HIS MIND
Ogura, had he stayed in the Honda system, would've been the main obstacle to Nakagami continuing in MotoGP given he was long assumed as the successor to Nakagami in the Idemitsu-backed LCR Honda ride.
Now, with Ogura preparing to carve out a different path, the road should be much simpler for Nakagami to sign another extension.
And having admitted to being unsure whether he even wanted one earlier in the season, Nakagami has now changed tact.
"I have an appointment after the race [with Honda chiefs], so let's see [if there's] some positive news, I'm not sure," he said.
"My plan A is to stay with the same team, to continue. Because, honestly speaking, it's not fair to decide my potential this season, because all four [Honda] riders are struggling, it's not only me. So it's better also for myself, to show my real speed, potential, with a competitive bike.
"And also I can help for the development side, I have a lot of experience on the bike, and I still have the speed. Plan A is to continue as a MotoGP rider."
THE WILDCARD
All of that leaves just one seat that seems to be a genuine wildcard - the Pramac Yamaha ride next to presumed first signing Oliveira.
Miller's words suggest nobody has reached out from Pramac's side, which further supports the prevailing perception that the ride will go to a rookie.
But which rookie? Moto2 championship leader Sergio Garcia could be an obvious pick, but a long-term reported Yamaha interest in Alonso Lopez means he has been mentioned as a possibility, too.
In the summer break, Tony Arbolino - an Italian option for an Italian team with an Italian title sponsor in Prima - was added into the mix by the rumour mill.
Arbolino was runner-up to Pedro Acosta for the Moto2 title last year, but has toiled in Moto2's new Pirelli era so far - after the series' switch from Dunlop rubber.
Moto2 standings
1. Sergio Garcia - 147
2. Ai Ogura - 140
3. Joe Roberts - 123
4. Fermin Aldeguer - 108
5. Alonso Lopez - 93
...
11. Tony Arbolino - 50
Quartararo, who made his biases clear by emphasising he's friends with Arbolino and lives close to the Italian, said: "For me he's ready. Of course this year has been not easy for him. I don't know if it's the tyres or how they manage the work with him.
"But in my case I never won more than two races, I never made more than three podiums in Moto2. And straight away in MotoGP I was ready."
MOTOGP 2025 GRID AS IT STANDS
Ducati: Pecco Bagnaia - Marc Marquez
Gresini Ducati: Alex Marquez - Fermin Aldeguer
VR46 Ducati: Fabio Di Giannantonio - Franco Morbidelli
Aprilia: Jorge Martin - Marco Bezzecchi
Trackhouse Aprilia: Raul Fernandez - Ai Ogura
KTM: Pedro Acosta - Brad Binder
Tech3 KTM: Enea Bastianini - Maverick Vinales
Yamaha: Fabio Quartararo - Alex Rins
Pramac Yamaha: Miguel Oliveira - ?
Honda: Joan Mir - Luca Marini
LCR Honda: Johann Zarco - Takaaki Nakagami
