Pedro Acosta's MotoGP future is the big story of this silly season, and his value to current employer KTM remains obvious.
But the Spanish Grand Prix weekend at Jerez has so far continued a recent trend that suggests KTM is nowhere near as Acosta-reliant as 2024 hinted it may become.
When prodded during his media session on whether he fancied joining the Ducati camp in light of its 1-2-3-4-5-6 today, Acosta did the correct thing - pointed to the left side of his chest, where the KTM logo is on his polo, and stressed that's where his heart is, too.
But his devotion to KTM isn't matched by his feelings towards the RC16 right now. On Saturday he felt like his day turned irreversibly between pre-qualifying practice and qualifying.
He had a big crash in that practice session but felt he was fast otherwise. But he struggled to string a lap together in Q2, and was clearly limited for pace in the sprint.
"Looks like every session is a surprise. You don’t know what to expect. It’s the toughest thing to understand," he summed up.
"Looks like all the [other] manufacturers have more grip than us. First laps of the sprint race were completely a disaster, grip-wise or traction-wise. For this, yeah, traction is a big point - and also some vibrations that we are having.”
The signs from testing were that, even if KTM didn't kick on, Acosta would at least take on a Fabio Quartararo-like role of dragging the bike up the order. And it has looked that way on some days.
Over one lap, certainly, he has both Brad Binder - who he is 5-0 against in qualifying - and Tech3 newcomer Enea Bastianini covered. But that increasingly cannot be said for Maverick Vinales.
A picture emerges
Vinales had his KTM 'coming out ball' in Qatar, but believes the breakthrough had come in Termas - and there were already signs in Austin. He got nothing out of that weekend, but mostly because of technical issues. The pace was very obviously there.
Qatar was then very strong, and Jerez now means there is robust evidence of a genuine trend. A mechanical failure cost Vinales Q2 on Friday - and you would wonder whether it'd break the back of his weekend - but he fought through Q1 on Saturday and put himself in a position to be best of the rest behind the Ducatis in the sprint.
"This morning I was feeling one of the best sessions since I'm at KTM - the way of riding, the way of the bike balance with the grip front and rear. This afternoon, I think with the hot temperature, that the grip got a little bit down, was a little bit more tricky to stop the bike, to turn, and I wasn't able to follow [the riders ahead] the first four laps. I wasn't able. I tried but I was not able," he explained.
"So, still we need to understand how we can be as competitive in a hot situation, with a lower grip."
The sprint, though, did come back to Vinales - by the end he was not just the only KTM scoring points but also close to picking off Ducati's 'straggler' Fabio Di Giannantonio.
What's going on?
There were some suggestions coming out of Qatar that Vinales had something extra on his RC16, though that appears to have been just a misunderstanding from what team-mate Bastianini was saying. As Bastianini himself has explained at Jerez, all four KTM riders are running different specs but none are dramatically different.
This includes Acosta, who has very publicly reverted to a 2024 bike (presumably as '24 as it can be given homologation regulations) and a 2024 set-up, but seems to be performing much like he was before that change.
"From my point of view, also the other guys in KTM are doing a really good job," Vinales insisted. "They are going also very fast.
"Somehow I'm able to be a little bit faster in the fast sections - but this is one quality I have as a rider. Always with all the bikes I was very fast in the fast corners."
Bastianini said he was finding the bike too nervous right now - losing time at first touch of the throttle - and it doesn't sound settled for the other riders, either.
But Vinales pointed out Bastianini "came from the best bike" - the Ducati - so may be feeling it more acutely.
"When you ride at the maximum, most bikes are quite nervous. Maybe from where I came, from Aprilia, the Aprilia was shaking a lot. So for me was again, when I went to KTM, it's a more stable bike.
"I don't know, maybe from the experience of Enea it's much worse than before. This I don't know. But from my experience from the past I have more stability than ever. "
The way forward
Vinales has had purple patches turn into very dubious form in the past, so more data is needed - but for now this is good news for a beleaguered KTM project.
Maybe not so much in a 'life after Acosta' sense, as having him walk away would still be a monumental embarrassment. But a high-profile signing is helping establish that the bike has a higher ceiling you may've otherwise thought - and perhaps seeing that may also make Acosta more inclined to stick around.
"There are two points clear that we have to improve and we need to concentrate on really hard on Monday," cautioned Vinales, referencing the post-race test. "One is the vibration, and the other one is - when I release the front brake, I need to close a little bit more the corner.
"This is the two keys we need to make the next step, before the following races. If we're able to really focus on that, we're going to make a big improvement."
KTM's long-term MotoGP future - with or without Acosta - is still a question mark. The vibes are still not exactly good. But they'd be a lot worse without Vinales doing what he's doing right now.
