Right now, it seems all but certain that despite the company’s financial difficulties KTM’s MotoGP team will make the 2025 grid.
But there’s no set commitment yet beyond that - which would initially seem to suggest 2026 onwards is in serious jeopardy.
Or is KTM (and its financial administrators) playing a waiting game to see whether there’s actually a route to a longer-term commitment?
Right now, we know that KTM is not just fully committed to this year’s season but is, perhaps more importantly, also fully prepared to fund it - an important factor given the estimated €40million cost of the grand prix racing programme and the reported €2.9billion debt the KTM group is currently trying to reduce.
However, in the court documents filed last month, the administrators have reportedly conceded that the expensive racing programme is something that will have to go in the future - without setting an exact date for when that might be.
Since then, there’s been plenty of speculation about whether that means the end of the 2025 season - a move that would entail breaking contracts and releasing signed-up riders and crew - or at the end of 2026, when a new set of MotoGP rules come into place that would entail building a whole new RC16 bike.
It might well be, though, that being inexact over the commitment to leave is something that could work in the KTM MotoGP team’s favour, given what else we’ve heard about the state of play in its Mattighofen base.
Perhaps the most promising message to have come out of the administration process so far is that those in charge believe that the company is, fundamentally, financially viable even despite the mind-boggling amount of debt that it’s accrued.
That debt hasn’t been caused by the public lacking the desire to purchase KTM machines. The problems came in large part thanks to executive decisions, with the purchase of additional brands such as GasGas, MV Agusta and cycling manufacturer Felt a significant reason for the current level of debt along with a failure to predict the market the reason for over-producing bikes that are currently unsold.
As a result, there’s every reason to believe that the manufacturer will survive this crisis. It’s to an extent too big to fail, given the employment it brings to its home region, so both investors and the Austrian government will help with the rescue operation.
And therein lies the reason why it’s perhaps too early to completely write off the KTM grand prix racing programme just yet.
A year is a long time in racing and in business, and it’s not yet impossible to imagine a world in which a new 850c KTM machine (which is already in development) lines up on the 2027 MotoGP grid.
After all, factories don’t just go racing for the fun of it: it’s a valuable component of their marketing, the way in which they convince the person on the street that their machines are world-class. Every major factory has, to one extent or the other, a racing division, and it’s hard to imagine that a brand with the slogan ‘ready to race’ will abandon that as part of a survival strategy.
Moreover, it still sounds like at least part of the rescue deal coming KTM’s way will involve partners with a significant racing interest of their own.
CFMoto is one potential investor. The Chinese manufacturer supplies KTM with components and tasted its first grand prix success in 2024 when David Alonso won the Moto3 title on his CFMoto-branded KTM machine for the Aspar team. It’s hard to see CFMoto not wanting KTM to keep racing - and keep succeeding in racing - if it takes on a key role in the rescue.
Another contender is Indian factory Bajaj, which has racing ambitions of its own and which could well ensure not only that KTM continues to race but that the Indian Grand Prix’s future on the MotoGP calendar looks a little more solid.
Right now, we just have to wait and see which of the parties mooted for involvement in a rescue deal come through. But with the 2025 season budgeted for, KTM is in a waiting game - trying to buy time so it can ensure the long-term future of its whole racing programme after all.
The implication from the initial talk around KTM’s crisis was that its exit from MotoGP was now inevitable, a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’. Maybe it can delay the 'inevitable' long enough for the picture to change - enough for said inevitable to become avoidable instead.
