The last round of the 2024 MotoGP season before the summer break was obviously an important swing in the standings as reigning champion Pecco Bagnaia took over at the front from early leader Jorge Martin thanks to Martin crashing out of the German Grand Prix lead with two laps to go.
And with Martin’s future now outside of Ducati thanks to his 2025 Aprilia deal, does it also mark the definitive turning point of the whole season?
There may be no way back from that error for Martin in the title fight given the wider circumstances he’s now in.
That might be a bold claim to make with the MotoGP season only at the halfway point and the gap just 10 points in Bagnaia’s favour, of course - but there are plenty of reasons to suggest Martin’s title hopes are already coming to an end, given the direction he’s taking in the future.
UPGRADES MIGHT END
The first part of his problem is a pretty obvious one: his Pramac bike’s development is now likely to have been frozen by Ducati.
That shouldn’t come as a surprise - it’s standard practice when a rider is switching factories for the next season, let alone a whole team as Pramac is also preparing for a Ducati exit as it moves to Yamaha.
That’s not, of course, to suggest even for a second that Ducati is in any way likely to sabotage Martin or Pramac. He’ll continue to get the factory support that he’s always had while at the top tier satellite team, including the comprehensive data-sharing and access to the engineering powerhouse that Ducati has built both at the track and back in its Bologna headquarters.
But actual technical updates from now on will surely be few and far between. Instead of keeping abreast of development and remaining on a machine that’s equal in every regard to Bagnaia’s, Martin is instead likely to slip down the pecking order, with 2025 factory rider Marc Marquez likely to become more of a focus for Ducati’s chief engineer Gigi Dall’Igna as they start preparing for next season together.
This is all a normal consequence of a rider or team moving away and factories looking to protect their intellectual property, so it’s also something that both Martin and his Pramac team must have expected and shouldn’t come as a surprise.
In an era where bikes are becoming less defined by their annual monickers and where development tends to spill from one season into the other fairly seamlessly, any form of technical freeze will surely harm Martin’s title aspirations.
FROSTY ATMOSPHERE?
There are also the consequences of a decidedly frosty atmosphere around the Pramac garage right now to contend with.
Martin has already admitted that things were somewhat tense after his sudden and rapid decision to reject Ducati for Aprilia (after he felt Ducati had done the rejecting by prioritising Marquez over him for 2025), and with the 26-year-old no stranger to being accused of having a chip on his shoulder, it could have a very direct effect on performance.
Simply put, if he isn’t seen as still being a team player, the normal human reaction is to cool relations, even if it’s only done subconsciously, something that could have the added effect of slowing down Ducati’s support to him.
DUCATI ELBOWS OUT ON TRACK
Similarly, while it’s unlikely that Ducati will openly resort to team orders in the closing stages of the season, if it comes down to a tight fight that the likes of Marquez or current factory racer Enea Bastianini are also able to play an influential role in as they battle the contenders on track, they perhaps won’t be asked to stand down or avoid aggression should they find themselves fighting against Martin - whereas a request to go easy against Bagnaia is much more likely.
THE CALENDAR
There are also elements outside Martin’s or Ducati’s control that skew his title hopes away from him. The news that Misano, a circuit where Bagnaia has always been ultra-strong, will have a second spot on the 2024 calendar in place of the twice-cancelled Kazakhstani round, will hurt Martin’s hopes.
All of this, of course, is in Ducati’s best interests even if it won’t actively campaign against Martin for the next few months.
The reality is that Ducati loses out if a number one plate won on a Ducati is raced next season on an Aprilia RS-GP machine instead - and ensuring that Bagnaia remains champion is the prime way to stop that right now.
