Valentino Rossi will today start a MotoGP race from the front row for the first time since Silverstone last year, after qualifying in third for the Catalan Grand Prix.
The result came just hours after he finally announced that he would be riding for the Petronas SRT Yamaha team in 2021, making it an almost-perfect day for the nine-time world champion.
Now is there a chance that he can go another step better today and take his first win since the Dutch TT back in 2017?
“I am competitive and strong. I can be fast for all the race” :: Valentino Rossi
While nothing is a sure thing in MotoGP, especially as 2020 continues to throw up drama after drama, this is certainly Rossi’s best chance at win number 90 in a very long time.
It’s not his qualifying position that gives the most hope, either, but his impressive race pace from Saturday afternoon’s free practice four session – traditionally the best indicator of a rider’s consistency as they make their final race preparations ahead of qualifying.
In that session, Rossi looked almost neck and neck with two rivals at the front of the pack – his Yamaha team-mate – and winner last time out – Maverick Vinales, and KTM’s Pol Espargaro, who hails from within earshot of the circuit in the suburbs of Barcelona.
Rossi is traditionally a ‘Sunday man’ whose best pace comes on race day. He made an uncharacteristically strong start in Friday practice at Barcelona – and in recent years that’s been the hallmark of a strong weekend ahead for Rossi.
He goes into race looking stronger than he has for quite some time – something he conceded after qualifying.
“It’s been a good Saturday because we started well from Friday – the bike was competitive and gave me a good feeling from the start,” said Rossi.
“In FP4 with a used tyre, I had good pace, and starting from the front row is very important – the first corner is very far away here.
“All the Yamaha riders have a good pace, so we need to make a good start, do everything right from the beginning, and then we‘ll see.
“I am competitive and strong. I can be fast for all the race.
“But MotoGP is always difficult, and things can change fast from one day to the other.
“To beat the others you have to arrive at the chequered flag earlier than them – that‘s the target.”
Espargaro could well be the man to watch on that run to the first corner, with the grunt of KTM’s V4 engine giving it a decisive advantage over Yamaha’s inline-four engine. But he only starts seventh behind four Yamahas and two Ducatis.
“By the end of the race it won’t be who is faster, it will be who cares less” :: Pol Espargaro
Though disappointed with that qualifying performance after looking the fastest man overall on race pace, Espargaro’s still likely to be the major threat to Yamaha’s dominance.
He’s keen to gain ground on the drag to Turn 1, but it’s not the first half of the race but the second that’s concerning the local rider.
“The drop of the soft tyre on the rear is something we expect to be huge,” Espargaro admitted.
“We tried to use the medium in FP4 and it was a disaster, so we don’t know what to do. We’re expecting it to drop around lap 15, or maybe even before that.
“In the last laps of the race, we’re not going to struggle to make a lap time – we’re going to struggle to stay on the bike.
“By the end of the race it won’t be who is faster, it will be who cares less and who is more prepared to take more risk.
“In a few corners I can close my eyes and pass some of them” :: Maverick Vinales
“Maybe someone can make the difference, but the fastest guy won’t be the one who is fastest.
“The risk of crashing will be so high, it’s going to be so easy to crash, so the person who risks more will get the best result if they manage to finish.”
Races of attrition are rarely situations where 2021 Honda signing Espargaro fares well, either. He’s already twice a crasher in this year’s opening seven races.
He’s facing a situation made tougher by Yamaha seeming more confident in its ability to not only run the soft tyre but the medium as well, depending on what an uncertain weather forecast brings to Spain’s east coast at the later-than-usual race slot of 3pm local time.
“The choice will be crucial,” Rossi said. “As always, the soft is better at the beginning but you have to suffer at the end, and with the medium you have a little bit less grip but more stability for the 24 laps. It’ll be a difficult choice to make.”
The other man as strong as Rossi and Espargaro on race pace is Vinales. The Misano 2 winner is looking strong and consistent. However, he conceded after qualifying on the second row in fifth that his race issues remain.
Vinales complained last weekend that he was unable to properly overtake anyone thanks to Yamaha’s weaknesses in acceleration and top speed. He’s been trying to remedy the problem all weekend at Barcelona but hasn’t yet found a solution.
“I’ve been following other bikes – and I can’t pass them,” Vinales said after qualifying.
“We’ll see what happens tomorrow, because for sure in a few corners I can close my eyes and pass some of them.
“I’ll try and stay on the tail of the other Yamahas, because I feel like I can be strong in the first few laps and in the last few.
“I need to make the best start I’ve ever made” :: Fabio Quartararo
“Even if the result today wasn’t amazing, I feel good on the bike and that’s the most important thing.
“Without the best feeling, I could still ride fast in FP4 on the back of [Joan] Mir, and I think tomorrow we can have a good chance if we make a little bit of improvement in how the front feels.”
But Rossi’s biggest chance of being denied a victory won’t come from his 2020 team-mate, but rather from the two guys in the Petronas Yamaha team he’ll join next season.
Franco Morbidelli and Fabio Quartararo took first and second places in qualifying. They might not have the race pace of Rossi but they can foil him at the start of the race.
“We have a good pace, but there are many riders with a similar pace to us,” poleman Morbidelli admitted after qualifying.
“It will be important to try to improve a little bit more for tomorrow, but I’m sure it is going to be a good race.”
That’s a view echoed by his team-mate, with Quartararo not quite as confident as he’s been in previous races.
Adamant that the opening laps will decide the entire race – as they have for all four of Yamaha’s victories so far this year – he is encouraged that Yamaha’s strong qualifying overall helps all its riders out by pushing back the rocketship Ducatis as far as possible.
“The key with our bike is to make a good start and it’ll be crucial to be first on the first two laps,” said Quartararo.
“The front two rows are good for us with four Yamahas in six positions, so I need to make the best start I’ve ever made.”
