Jorge Martin heads into Sunday's Malaysian Grand Prix at Sepang with his first chance of becoming 2024 MotoGP champion.
Main rival Pecco Bagnaia's crash out of the Sepang sprint means Martin holds a 29-point lead in the standings, with a total of 62 available in the remaining races.
That means Martin will become champion if he scores 34 points or more over the remaining two grands prix and one sprint.
He cannot accomplish this on Sunday at Sepang alone - but he can be champion then if Bagnaia leaves points on the table again.
The tiebreaker in case two riders finish level on points is based on grand prix results over sprints, so Bagnaia's nine grand prix wins this season mean he will be champion if he and Martin finish the season with the same points tally.
Therefore, a 38-point gap rather than a 37-point gap would ensure the title for Martin coming out of Sepang.
Following the cancellation of the planned Valencia finale due to devastating flooding in the area, MotoGP is yet to announce a replacement track.
Here's where Bagnaia needs to finish on Sunday at Sepang to ensure the title fight continues into whatever the final grand prix of the season will end up being.
If Martin wins, Bagnaia must finish second
If Martin is second, Bagnaia must finish fourth or better
If Martin is third, Bagnaia must finish eighth or better
If Martin is fourth, Bagnaia must finish 11th or better
If Martin is fifth, Bagnaia must finish 13th or better
If Martin is sixth, Bagnaia must finish 14th or better
If Martin is seventh, Bagnaia must finish 15th or better
If Martin is eighth or worse, the title fight will continue into the finale
Even if Bagnaia wins every remaining race of the season from here, a pair of third places in the grands prix and an eighth in the remaining sprint - or a second in said sprint and two fourth-place grand prix finishes - would guarantee Martin the title.
