Going into this weekend’s German Grand Prix, there are two things we know about Marc Marquez’s current status: his chances of winning the 2021 MotoGP title are non-existent, but his hopes of finally getting back to form and taking a podium or even at win again are higher than they’ve been since he broke his arm almost a year ago.
That’s because of his incredible win record at the Sachsenring, a track where he has been absolutely dominant for a decade.
Undefeated there since his 125cc days, he’s taken a clean sweep of 10 pole positions and 10 race wins there across all categories – an incredible record even given his domination of the sport of late.
And that record means that, going into this weekend, he’s still being considered a potential race winner despite his continuing injury issues.
Still not back to full strength but at least competing at a track that he is perhaps uniquely suited to in terms of both his style and his Honda’s remaining strengths, the German GP will be the ultimate test of Marquez’s recovery progress so far.
His continuing fitness deficit hasn’t stopped some of his rivals predicting that he’s going to be as fast as ever this weekend, with championship leader Fabio Quartararo among them.
“For me I think that he will be there this weekend,” Quartararo replied when asked about Marquez’s chances by The Race.
“It’s a track where he has 10 wins and 10 pole positions, and he will be there.
“It will be an important moment for him, although I’m not really looking at him.
“For sure he’ll be fast, but at the end I’m more trying to figure out myself.
“For sure it’s a great moment for him, coming back, and to make a podium or victory will be a big boost of confidence.
“I think everyone will try to keep him from winning to not give him too much confidence!”
But there’s perhaps a bigger impact that Marquez can have on this weekend’s race than just being at the front, if he finds himself in a position to inadvertently alter the championship battle despite being well and truly out of it himself.
That’s what Pramac Racing’s Johann Zarco, who currently sits second in the title race, 14 points from Quartararo, is wary of.
It’s a position that Marquez has controversially found himself in in the past, when he became locked in battle with Valentino Rossi at Sepang in 2015.
Marquez was out of the championship hunt by then as it had become an all-Yamaha battle between Rossi and team-mate Jorge Lorenzo.
Rossi had already intimated that he felt Marquez was trying to help Lorenzo’s cause. Their very close fight in the Malaysian Grand Prix then ended with contact that left Marquez on the ground and Rossi being put to the back of the grid for the subsequent title decider.
Since then, Rossi has remained adamant that Marquez was entirely to blame for Lorenzo beating him to the 2015 championship.
While Zarco has not suggested anything that dramatic might unfold on this occasion, he can see the potential for a competitive Marquez with nothing to lose shaking things up for those trying to win the 2021 title.
“I think he’ll be there on the podium, although it’s difficult to say about the victory,” said Zarco.
“With the advantage he had in the past years here, even with a broken arm he’ll have less gap than at the last tracks.
“He had a good test on the Monday after Barcelona, and more importantly a good rest, because two races in a row in Mugello and Barcelona would have been difficult with the injury he has, even if he doesn’t show it.
“If there is a bet to do, then I think some people should put some money on him.
“It’s true that he’s not playing in the championship right now, but that’s why we need to make some other calculations.
“He’s always… not aggressive, but he does not hesitate when he overtakes, and we have to take him into consideration if we are fighting for the podium.”
It’s obviously unlikely that Sachsenring 2021 will become as notorious as Sepang 2015 – we’re much earlier in the season and the personalities in this year’s title fight aren’t in the Rossi/Lorenzo realms of fame and rivalry.
But it’s not outside the realms of possibility to imagine an aggressive Marquez getting stuck in should he find himself in the hunt for a good result – and in that situation, anything can happen.
