Qualifying for this year’s Qatar Grand Prix managed to throw up plenty of surprises, with a front row composed of three MotoGP riders who weren’t necessarily considered race-winning threats beforehand: Jorge Martin, Enea Bastianini and Marc Marquez.
Yet while it might have made for a spectacular start to the season, it’s also fair to say that it hid the truth somewhat, with the front row themselves admitting that the likely winner isn’t among them.
Or, at the very least, that the winner won’t necessarily be decided on qualifying order alone, with Marquez instead suggesting that the way in which the race plays out in the opening laps is likely to be the key factor in who can eventually take victory.
“The key will be who will lead the race,” said the third-placed Repsol Honda rider at the qualifying press conference.
“The three guys who are here are not the fastest – they [the faster riders on race pace] are all starting from the back.
“It all depends on who leads the race, whether there will be a big group or a small group, what the pace will be.
“We must understand well the track conditions, because it changes every time we go out, and there are many riders with similar pace.
“But it’s not the same to ride alone or to follow someone, you need to take care of the front tyre and it’s more difficult to stop the bike. There are many things to take care of.”
That, of course, is a position that 2021’s rookie polesitter Jorge Martin found himself in 12 months ago at the second Qatar race of last season’s double-header – until a lack of experience in tyre preservation in what was only his second ever MotoGP race eventually forced him to drop back to third as Fabio Quartararo and Johann Zarco pushed their way through.
While better prepared in 2022 now that he has a year of experience under his belt, it still doesn’t necessarily mean that Martin’s ready to win in those circumstances – but the Pramac Ducati rider undoubtedly goes into the race more ready than he was last time.
“I just need to make full gas and be there!” he joked.
“But last year every time I started from pole position, I was on the podium, and this is already important because the good thing is that we have the speed.
“But for sure I need to manage it, use the experience I have now, and manage the tyres and my physical condition.
“The race will be close, but I hope I can make the small step with the experience and be there fighting.”
And regardless of Martin’s growing experience, he’s still got a strong bunch of opponents to beat if he wants to add to his single race win – with Suzuki rider Joan Mir (who starts eighth) very much the main rider to beat in the minds of many thanks to stellar race pace throughout the weekend.
Mir’s not the only rider who will be stronger than his qualifying position suggests though, with reigning world champion Quartararo still very much in the mix according to many of his rivals.
Though starting from a disappointing 11th, that’s only two places worse than the ninth he converted into a victory 12 months ago, something he’s keenly aware of.
And, with fellow disappointed qualifiers Mir and Alex Rins around him on the grid with their own excellent race pace, Quartararo sounds optimistic that together they can launch themselves into race-winning contention.
“I have Rins in front of me, Mir not so far, and these are the two guys who have some of the strongest pace,” he explained.
“I don’t think it will really mean that there’s only a small group in front. What you lose in the beginning you can make up if you try to solve your tyres. You can manage the race in two different ways.
“I think that this is one of the tracks where even if you start far away – it’s still a big problem of course – but if you started in this position on our bike in Jerez it would be the worst case.
“OK, the situation is different [from last year] and almost every bike and manufacturer has made a big step, so it’ll be more tough, but I can give my maximum.”
