Jorge Martin and Pecco Bagnaia will fight it out over their second-consecutive last-round title decider in MotoGP this weekend in Barcelona, albeit with the roles reversed.
Having come into the finale last weekend as a hopeless long shot, Martin now just needs to avoid his worst weekend of the season to be crowned champion.
Bagnaia requires an extraordinary points swing in his favour - one that hasn't happened in any of the previous 19 rounds - to win his third consecutive crown, and knows how unlikely that is.
But if it all seems simple on paper, it certainly doesn't on the ground in Barcelona - with both riders' words on Thursday, as well as those of their rivals, quite revealing and informative about what is still bound to be a tense decider despite the huge points disparity.
Martin is more nervous than usual
Normally, it’s fair to assume that the rather bullish championship leader Martin is someone who isn’t too affected by pressure, such is his usual swagger in the paddock. But, at Barcelona on Thursday, things were a little different, with the Spaniard notably more nervous during the pre-event press conference than he has been in recent weeks.
It’s hard to pin exactly what was a bit different from usual about his persona, but for someone who’s normally quite forthcoming and more than a little blunt, there was perhaps a bit more apprehension in his answers than usual, something magnified by the accentuated ice cool demeanour of his rival Bagnaia sat next to him.
Even his occasionally quite frosty answers to journalists were a little muted as a result, with a bit less of the rather sharp wit that normally comes out when Martin asked something he doesn’t particularly like, and the hug he threw around Bagnaia’s neck at the end was very out of character for Martin in a press conference setting.
However, while it might be setting him off balance a little right now, it’s not something that is likely to affect him too much once he’s on the bike - and actually, if his normal self is anything to go by, there might even be a sense of relief that the pressure is out of the way once he closes the visor on Saturday for his first championship match point in the sprint.
Martin said the right things
Martin faces a weekend of playing the percentages - he needs to come into the weekend assuming that Bagnaia will get all 37 points and that therefore he needs 14 of his own, in any combination across Saturday and Sunday.
There are many ways of getting those 14 points, especially when you're in form as rich as Martin and the Ducati GP24 are in right now, but it's worth thinking in advance about how to get them.
When asked about his strategy for the weekend, Martin initially gave a fairly boilerplate answer: "My target is do the same as I do always - that is, try to be competitive from Friday till Sunday. That is my main goal.
"Then winning or not winning will be the consequence of doing the job well or not. But I think that finally I can race without looking at anyone, just at myself, try to enjoy the weekend, try to be fast..."
But he then made an important concession. "For sure if I can take it on Saturday, I mean, I will take it. But I think this will go to Sunday. I accept this."
A sprint win guarantees Martin the title - it's 12 points but with Bagnaia also 'losing' three more. But going all out in chasing that sprint win could easily backfire and leave Martin's Sunday so, so much harder than it realistically needs to be. Whereas a simply good sprint could leave a lot of margin for error for the grand prix.
It might still be worth it to risk in the sprint - but, crucially, it is something to think about, and Martin's answer (along with the admission that, in suffering with jet lag after the Asian leg, he has had a lot of time to himself to think about the upcoming championship finale) suggests he has thought about it enough.
Bagnaia has accepted title defeat
With Martin understandably under pressure, Bagnaia - also understandably, given his points situation - very much sounded like someone who has already accepted that he isn’t likely to retain his crown.
“My mind is free right now,” he admitted, quoting his catchphrase, “because I have to go full send and do what I have to do. I want to go to enjoy it and try to win.
“Three years ago [in the title decider with Fabio Quartararo], I was really scared during the race, and I finished eighth, a result that was completely out of my potential.
“Last season, I just tried to keep calm, but when I was racing I was absolutely more nervous. Then what happened, happened, on Sunday when Jorge missed the braking in corner one, and from that moment everything was easier. ”
And, while he did concede that there’s always going to be some pressure on his shoulders, the Italian made it very clear that he doesn’t feel like he’s the one under most pressure even if the title is most likely already gone from his grasp.
“You never know, and you never escape from pressure, but we are racers and we have to do our best.
“Jorge can enjoy a lot the weekend, because he did a fantastic season, so I think it’ll be a great weekend and I will try to do the maximum.
“I think my maximum isn’t enough, but we have to see what will happen.”
Bagnaia also reiterated that he will "not try to cause anything" for Martin to lose points - despite the acknowledgment that on current performance trends that will surely mean title defeat.
"I know that the level we are having right now is enough to guarantee the title to Jorge. Even if he slows down a bit, it's difficult that he will finish off the podium. This is our reality right now."
Nobody wants to play kingmaker
If Martin doesn't crash on Sunday, Bagnaia will need a lot of help to win the title. The candidates to provide that help are few and far between.
Enea Bastianini is historically limited at this circuit in MotoGP. "Generally in this track we don't have much grip, especially on the edge - and in the past I have suffered with movement on the edge. Now probably the condition will be a bit different, will be much colder [than in May]. I am curious to see how it is in this condition," he said.
Bastianini's primary focus for the weekend is defeating Marc Marquez for third place in the standings, though, rather than helping Bagnaia. For Marquez, the third-place fight carries little weight
Marquez's Catalan GP in May was compromised by a Q1 exit, but there's no expectation that - even avoiding that pitfall, and even considering the fact it's his second time at the circuit on a Ducati - he will be able to run Bagnaia/Martin pace. Barcelona is simply not one of his favoured circuits.
And even if he does get between Bagnaia and Martin on Sunday, Bagnaia at the very least needs another rider to do the same.
Could that rider be Aleix Espargaro? The Aprilia man is "100 percent" convinced it's realistic to win, even in the longer-distance race, despite the fact that the RS-GP has looked worse than the Desmosedici in May and has looked a lot worse than the Desmosedici in all the recent rounds.
"I have confidence because we race with the compound in May, the hard tyre, that I expected to not use. It will be colder so I expect to go softer compounds.
"I was very fast, I did the lap record with the soft[er] tyre, and Michelin expects that this tyre can make it into the race. This is why I'm a little bit more happy, that I have the feeling that I have more chances.
"But anyway it's going to be extremely difficult. The Ducatis, the last three months, they are flying."
Espargaro did acknowledge that he would never willingly compromise Martin's title, though. "You guys know that I love Jorge as my son. For me the priority is that he can make it," he said.
"Knowing that he's fighting for the title, it will be different, I will have to act in a different way, 100 percent. We will see. I hope that this is a problem [for me to face]!"
The boisterous Pedro Acosta is another candidate here, with a strong showing in May and less of an allegiance to Martin, but he too sounded distinctly disinterested in playing a role in the title fight
"Last time that I was here I felt quite comfortable and quite fast, despite the fact that I crashed. I was even able to score points despite this," he said.
"Let's see where we can arrive and if we can have this role. I hope no, because I have much more important things to do to play a role. I need already to try to fight for a win this season.
"I don't really want to play this role, let's say, help one or the other, I think this is not sports. When it's a battle between two, I think those two have to battle, you know what I mean?"
Martin's Ducati bridges are not burned
Earlier in the season, Martin acknowledged that being overlooked for a Ducati factory ride in favour of Marc Marquez made him feel like a "fool". His actions - in immediately heading for an Aprilia contract the second he learned there would be no promotion, instead of trying to stay on a satellite Ducati bike that is obviously super competitive - showed how much it hurt, too.
But speaking on Sunday, he came off a lot more reconciliatory than on some other occasions this year.
"For me, it’s not that I wasn’t good enough for them," he said.
"For sure, I know they trust in me, that’s why I have the contract that I have [right now]. It was another situation, and maybe more interest about another thing - I don’t think they were in the meetings like 'he’s not good enough to be on a factory bike'.
"So I am happy finally with their decision, if they think it is the best, and I am happy with my future. I think we keep the good relationship, I think you never know in the future what can happen in two years in the next contracts, you never know. I think the important thing is that the relationship is kept good."
That's understandably pragmatic. Marquez will be 33 at the end of his upcoming Ducati works deal, and if by then he's ready to move on, proven Desmosedici star Martin may well be the absolute best candidate to replace him.
