We’ve only seen two sessions of practice action so far at the Losail International Circuit ahead of this weekend’s opening round of the 2021 MotoGP season, but with five days of testing at the track last week, it looks like we’ve alrady got an idea of what’s going to happen when the lights go out for the Qatar Grand Prix.
And, like testing already suggested to us, it looks increasingly likely that we’re going to see one of two eventualities – either a runaway Yamaha winner or Ducati to mugging the Japanese manufacturer at the line because of a deficit in top speed.
So far on combined race pace, there are three Yamahas in the top four, with only Aleix Espargaro’s Aprilia spoiling the party. Maverick Viñales leads the way for Yamaha, but both satellite rider Franco Morbidelli and Viñales’ factory team-mate Fabio Quartararo aren’t far away.
On single lap outright speed, it’s a different story, with the Ducatis of Jack Miller and Pecco Bagnaia ahead of everyone else and topping yesterday’s combined times – meaning that it remains the case that the opening laps of the race are going to define who gets to stand on the top of the podium twenty laps later.
But with another day of action still to go ahead of the race, everyone is hedging their bets for now.
“I think that in this track our bike is the favourite, for sure,” admitted Bagnaia after finishing Friday in second.
“But Franky has demonstrated he has a really great pace, a really strong pace. If in the first laps he will start first and will push, then for sure we have to push the tyres more also, and maybe we will start to struggle more.
“For sure it will be very important to remain close to him and in front of him, and wait maybe half race to start pushing hard and to be constant with the tyres.
“It looks like Ducati have found the speed they had at the test, nothing less and nothing more” :: Franco Morbidelli
“Our bike in the factory Ducati team is very strong, but Franky is very strong, Zarco is also strong, and I think six or seven riders are very competitive for Sunday’s race.”
It was the same in the opposing camp too, with Bagnaia’s friend and VR46 Academy training partner Morbidelli admitting that while both have pace, he’s equally unsure just yet who will have an advantage just yet.
“I hope to be the favourite,” Morbidelli said, “but looking at the numbers and today’s chart, it looks more like the Ducatis are the favourite – but nothing is set yet.
“We’ll wait until a little more into the weekend to predict something because it’s just the first approach.
“It looks like Ducati have found the speed they had at the test, nothing less and nothing more. We’re struggling a bit more to get the same speed, maybe because we make the lap time in different areas of the track. We’ll have to wait to make some predictions.”
But there is one worry ahead for the Yamaha riders in today’s qualifying session: what will happen to their chances if they’re not on the front row, given the severe disadvantage they have at both overtaking and at starts?
“We need to be better on the starts and in the first laps,” Morbidelli said at the test.
“Our race needs to be first or second on the first laps and then to push like hell.
“That’s our main objective, really – to make an incredible time attack in qualifying, to be first, and then to go. We don’t have other opportunities. We need to push really hard on Saturday and then to make a good start on Sunday.”
Yamaha is now one of the few teams now without a front launch device to lock out the forks briefly, so Viñales has spent most of the early hours of last week’s test completing dozens of practice starts – but his team-mate Quartararo says that it is not enough to see them come out on top.
“All the Yamaha riders are pushing for the front system, because I’ve seen how easy it is to make a mistake with the Yamaha on the start,” said Quartararo, who stalled his M1 on the line in his debut MotoGP race in 2019.
“It’s so difficult to make a fast start, and even when we do it perfectly, it’s so slow compared to everyone else. We need to improve it because it’s something really important to us. We’re going to push to do our best and to be in the best position, but it’s not easy.
“It’s a weak point that can be solved really fast, and I hope that Yamaha can do something fast. It’s not that complicated for Yamaha, because everyone else has it.
“The Suzukis are super fast with the system on the rear, and I hope they bring us something as soon as possible.”
