This weekend’s MotoGP race at Misano marks championship leader Fabio Quartararo’s first match point of the year, as he heads back to the Italian track with a 52-point lead and only 50 left on the table afterwards.
But given the strength shown by Ducati rider Pecco Bagnaia at Misano last time out and with two further races remaining, there’s still a good chance for a delay to the championship’s resolution.
The maths on what Bagnaia needs to do to keep any hope alive are pretty simple. Whatever happens, he has to beat his Yamaha. If Quartararo wins the race, then he’s champion automatically. If he manages to concede fewer than two points to Bagnaia, then he’s champion.
But that might be an easier task to say than to do, given just how strong Bagnaia looked the last time that the series headed to the circuit on the Adriatic coast, only a few short weeks ago.
Coming into the race on the crest of a wave of momentum following an exceptional first victory – earned against Marc Marquez on the Spaniard’s home turf at Aragon – Bagnaia then utterly dominated at his own home venue. There was simply nothing that Quartararo could to as he tried to throw everything he had at the Ducati, and eventually was forced to settle for second-best.
And while the Circuit of the Americas was a minor dip in form for Bagnaia, who came home third behind Marquez and Quartararo, it’s fair to assume that it wasn’t enough to cost him his podium consistency and motivation – expect him to be just as strong as he was in September when MotoGP returns to Misano.
There’s even a chance that things could be even more decisively tipped in his favour by something wholly out of the control of the grid: the weather. Now that it’s well and truly into autumn in central Europe and already considerably cooler than when MotoGP departed for Texas, this weekend’s forecast isn’t fantastic.
As it stands, both Friday and Saturday are forecast for rain, with Sunday so far set to be dry but conditions always changeable at the coastal track. That could spell bad news for Quartararo if he’s planning on wrapping up the title, thanks to what has been rather mediocre wet-weather performance all season long – and, in fact, for most of his MotoGP career to date.
Bagnaia, on the other hand, is considerably faster in tricky conditions, and although the pressure will be very much on him not to make a mistake, it’s still odds on that he’ll end up ahead of Quartararo should conditions be different from last time out.
However, the reality is that it’s all largely a theoretical exercise for Bagnaia. While Quartararo might not manage to clinch the title at Misano, it’s very hard to see the sort of complete disaster looming that it would take to snatch the crown out of his hands at this point.
He’s been remarkably consistent all season long, and there’s simply no sign of any risk of a double DNF coming his way any time soon, either at Misano or at Portimao, the next venue on the calendar and another return visit for 2021. Should things not work out in Italy, it still seems like the title is a matter of course now – something unlikely to stop Bagnaia from giving it his all this weekend.
Realistically, it’s going to take either a complete implosion (something unlikely from a much more level-headed Quartararo this year) or an injury; something that no one is wishing upon him and that also doesn’t seem to fit with his 2021 form so far.
However, it’s still not all doom and gloom for Bagnaia. Starting the season as very much Ducati’s number two rider to team-mate Jack Miller, his impressive year so far has had plenty of points to be proud of.
And while the title might be a stretch, a comfortable 27-point advantage over reigning champion Joan Mir in third means that he’s unlikely he’s going to lose second place. It might not be a win, but top Ducati and runner-up spot to a dominant Quartararo wouldn’t anything to be too disappointed in for the 24-year-old.
