MotoGP's second and final pre-season test at Buriram was much more fruitful for race simulations than Sepang, despite being one day shorter.
The vast majority of teams and manufacturers zeroed in on what approximate configurations they want to start the season with, so could afford some performance running, while the proximity of the race weekend at Buriram - at the end of the month, compared to October for Sepang - makes representative long-running more meaningful.
A MotoGP sprint at Buriram is 13 laps, while the grand prix covers twice that distance - 26 laps. The two will require very different configurations - so let's split the data into two categories, starting with the stints with 13 or fewer applicable laps.
Sprint distance simulations
Marco Bezzecchi, Aprilia, 1m30.093s, 13
Pedro Acosta, KTM, 1m30.335s, 10 (Day 1)
Joan Mir, Honda, 1m30.338s, 13
Fabio Quartararo, Yamaha, 1m30.361s, 12
Pedro Acosta, KTM, 1m30.390s, 10* (Day 1)
Brad Binder, KTM, 1m30.538s, 12 (Day 1)
Maverick Vinales, Tech3 KTM, 1m30.604s, 9*
Jack Miller, Pramac Yamaha, 1m30.776s, 12*
Fermin Aldeguer, Gresini Ducati, 1m31.089s, 10*
Alex Rins, Yamaha, 1m31.114s, 9
Maverick Vinales, Tech3 KTM, 1m31.151s, 10* (Day 1)
Luca Marini, Honda, 1m31.179s, 12*
Ai Ogura, Trackhouse Aprilia, 1m31.184s, 8
Ai Ogura, Trackhouse Aprilia, 1m31.294s, 12* (Day 1)
Johann Zarco, Honda, 1m31.827s, 11
* denotes outlier laptimes removed from calculation and count
Runs are Day 2 unless specified
It is possible some of these are misleading - more than usual in a test - and actually represent a short run in Sunday race configuration; for example, one of the Vinales runs actually spanned 14 laps, more than a sprint distance, but with four outliers excised for the average.
However, the data at the top seems clear and makes for good reading for Aprilia and its new recruit Marco Bezzecchi, whose sprint simulation featured the best long run lap of the test - a 1m29.632s, just a tenth off Jorge Martin's best effort from last year's sprint - and minimal pace drop-off (an average of 0.05s from lap two to the end).
This looks good, and is corroborated by team manager Paolo Bonora - who said the evidence was that the new Aprilia has indeed taken a step forward in terms of race pace longevity.
Projected 'mock race' over nine laps
1 Marco Bezzecchi 13m29.733s
2 Joan Mir +2.966s
3 Pedro Acosta +2.972s
4 Fabio Quartararo +3.218s
5 Brad Binder +3.730s
6 Jack Miller +5.633s
7 Maverick Vinales +5.707s
8 Fermin Aldeguer +9.858s
9 Alex Rins +10.296s
10 Luca Marini +10.458s
11 Ai Ogura +11.401s
12 Johann Zarco +16.005s
First nine laps of stint taken, latter laps used in case of clear outlier laps
The other particularly notable sprint simulation, as you can see, belongs to Honda's Joan Mir.
The RC213V hadn't showed much in the way of impressive long run pace at Sepang, but Mir's 13-lapper at Buriram was genuinely eyebrow-raising.
"The pace that we were able to do in the sprint is something that...we are closer than ever since I'm with Honda," he said. "You really can't ask for more."
Grand prix distance simulations
Marc Marquez, Ducati, 1m30.378s, 23
Pedro Acosta, KTM, 1m31.016s, 22
Franco Morbidelli, VR46 Ducati, 1m31.019s, 17
Alex Marquez, Gresini Ducati, 1m31.071s, 23
Brad Binder, KTM, 1m31.545s, 23
Johann Zarco, LCR Honda, 1m31.559s, 23*
Somkiat Chantra, LCR Honda, 1m32.004s, 19*
* denotes outlier laptimes removed from calculation and count
In the category of runs with over 13 relevant laps, Marc Marquez's 23-lap stint was the takeaway - noticed by everyone in the paddock.
It featured a best lap of 1m29.811s that is just two tenths removed from Bezzecchi's best 'sprint-spec effort', but also notable was that only two of the other 21 laps were more than a second off that best lap (and only narrowly so).
This is normal for Buriram, where the stiffer-construction rear tyres hold up well in pace through the distance - although of the riders in the list above that was really only the case for Marquez.
Pecco Bagnaia didn't do any meaningful long-running - he had a pretty scruffy test overall - but is convinced his used-tyre pace looked potent in shorter bursts.
"I didn't do the simulation just because it was more important for me to find a way and finish the job," Bagnaia told MotoGP.com. "I didn't have time to do it.
"It's difficult to know [how the pace compares to Marquez's]. It's true that Marc, in that moment, looks in better shape. Marc did very impressive laptimes - when I was stopping and restarting [runs] I was on the same level, but this is not a correct way to balance [judge] it."
Projected 'mock race' over 17 laps
1 Marc Marquez 25m34.103s
2 Pedro Acosta +8.559s
3 Alex Marquez +10.958s
4 Brad Binder +16.965s
5 Johann Zarco +19.397s
6 Somkiat Chantra +27.665s
First 17 laps of stint taken, latter laps used in case of clear outlier laps
"Looks like there's a big group behind Marc, who is a little bit ahead of everybody on this track," said Franco Morbidelli, who felt his own race run was "decent" given the heat.
"That's how it looks. Maybe in the race weekend - things can change pretty quick."
And for KTM, which experienced a pretty staggering drop-off in both Pedro Acosta's and Brad Binder's pace, Acosta referred to some "problems" during the race simulation but didn't sound alarmed.
Comparing sprint and GP
We can't confidently project what Marquez would do over a sprint distance - or what Bezzecchi could do over a sprint - but there's at least some previous Buriram data to lean back on.
Last year, the grand prix was wet - rendering comparisons to the sprint meaningless - but in 2023 the weekend's two races ran in comparable, if not quite equivalent, conditions and both got the same winner in Jorge Martin.
The median difference in pace between relevant finishers of both races was four tenths, but Martin was six tenths quicker on average in the sprint than in the race - and that figure is likely more relevant given that pace comparison lower down the order is skewed by time losses in traffic.
As for the fastest lap, in the sprint it was over seven tenths quicker than in the race.
Compare that to the much smaller gap between the best 'sprint' lap of the test - Bezzecchi's 1m29.632s - and the best 'GP' lap of the test - Marquez's 1m29.811s - and you'll see why Marquez's race run captured the attention of the paddock the way it did.
