Going into this year’s British Grand Prix, it looks like there’s one man to beat at the front of the pack – championship leader Fabio Quartararo, who has demonstrated exceptional race pace all weekend throughout practice and as a result who starts the race as the clear favourite.
The Monster Energy Yamaha rider looks to incredibly have over half a second a lap in hand when it comes to race pace, and it’s hard to see him being beaten when the lights go out – but in modern MotoGP, we’re well-aware that anything can happen. The Frenchman has had issues before in races this year when things looked pretty bolted on for him, most famously with arm pump in Jerez and with his leathers malfunction in Barcelona.
But if he falters again, it might not be one of the usual suspects who makes the most of the opportunity and exploits it for championship gain. The likes of Jack Miller, Miguel Oliveira and Johann Zarco have looked far from comfortable at Silverstone, and it would be as big a surprise to see them getting stuck in at the front as it would be to see Quartararo not there.
In fact, the only championship rival who looks like they can challenge Quartararo is factory Ducati rider Pecco Bagnaia, who starts alongside him on the front row. Second in the championship and second on estimated race pace, he might be able to use Ducati’s epic starting ability and high top speed to flummox Quartararo in the race – but risks opening up the door to a whole host of dark horses should he try and slow the pace from the front.
Because there are more people who on paper can throw up a surprise today than perhaps any race of the season so far, with a grid stacked with wildcards who might be able to get themselves into the mix should circumstances allow it.
Of course, the number one name on that list is pole-sitter Pol Espargaro. The Repsol Honda rider has endured a torrid season so far, but has been able to find some comfort in the cooler conditions of Silverstone, and the return of the rear grip he’s been missing all season means that he’s finally found a way to be fast again.
Going into the race completely open-minded, he admitted after qualifying that his entire plan is simply to get stuck into the leading group and to see what happens – but given that the Northamptonshire track hasn’t exactly been Honda’s easiest circuit of the calendar, it might be a bit of a stretch to see him on the top of the podium.
Perhaps just as big a dark horse, though, is the second Espargaro brother. Aprilia rider Aleix has been fast and consistent all weekend, and sits behind only Quartararo and Bagnaia on race pace.
It might be a stretch to see Aprilia taking a debut win at Silverstone, but given the way the RS-GP has been rapidly improving, stranger things have happened this year in MotoGP.
Strange things like the win last time out by Red Bull KTM rider Brad Binder, who could again pull off a surprise if he can find the sort of Sunday form he’s usually capable of delivering. Silverstone isn’t short of passing places, and the South African’s aggressive riding will come into it’s own on the opening laps if he’s able to launch an early attack.
The exact same applies, of course, to reigning world champion Joan Mir. His race will likely be decided in the opening laps – if he can make one of his typically impressive starts and get into contention with the guys at the front, he’s unlikely to need misfortune for someone else to get into the fight for the win.
He’s got more to lose than most of the other dark horses, though, with a title defence on the line and the gap to Quartararo still a big one.
A clever racer, he’ll take his chances where he can and how hard he pushes depends on where his French rival is on track relative to him.
