Nothing short of victory will do for reigning MotoGP world champion Fabio Quartararo on Sunday at Valencia to give him a shot of retaining the title – a big ask for a rider who hasn’t won a race since before the series’ summer break.
However, he has looked to be doing everything right ahead of the race by demonstrating impressively fast race pace and backing it up with fourth on the grid – a place that he is confident the grand prix can be won from.
But, even taking aside the long-shot other requirement of points leader Pecco Bagnaia finishing outside the top 14, a Quartararo win is something the probability of which his MotoGP peers are split on.
“Much more easy the pace of Pecco to win the championship, he just needs to arrive at the end. And about Fabio, for me it’s impossible for him to win the race tomorrow,” said Luca Marini, VR46 Ducati rider and a good friend of Bagnaia’s through both being Valentino Rossi proteges.
“Not because he [Quartararo] doesn’t have the pace. He has beautiful, amazing pace – but like in every event of this year. If you look at his pace [every weekend] it’s impressive.
“But then in race condition he’s a little bit slower because he’s with other riders, he struggles a little bit when someone overtakes him or someone is in front of him, because he cannot do his lines, it looks like…”
Marini caveated his verdict with “I never spoke with him, but from the TV it looks like this”, but his words do very much align with what Quartararo has been saying for much of the season.
“So I think that for tomorrow it’s impossible for him.”
“It’s very difficult,” admitted Aprilia rider and former title contender Aleix Espargaro, a close friend of Quartararo’s.
“Fabio is faster than I expected before the weekend started, sincerely, and I think he can win the race. He has the pace to do that.
“But the other two things he needs to happen are harder. One of them is to have a zero of Pecco, which is difficult. But the second thing, for Pecco to have a zero it’s impossible that the other Ducati riders allow Fabio to win.”
In that, of course, comes an inherent risk for the rest of the Ducati pack; the chance to accidentally interfere with the championship battle by making contact with Quartararo and, as a result, face not only instant social media condemnation but also to reinvigorate the persistent (yet largely baseless) conspiracy theories around team orders that have already dogged Ducati this year.
“I will try to make my own race,” said Pramac Ducati’s pole-sitter Jorge Martin. “If Fabio is with me, I’ll see if he is fast and I’ll try to pass him, and if he is slow I’ll try to pass him. But he’s like a normal rider to me. For sure, you have to always be careful, and I’ve always been careful with Fabio and with Pecco; it’s not a thing whether it’s Fabio or Pecco, but I always try to be clean.
“Tomorrow we have to pay attention, because for sure if it was the opposite way then I’d like the same from them.”
And while Quartararo might on paper have the best race pace to win, 2020 champion Joan Mir believes whatever advantage the Yamaha man has is not enough to ensure the straightforward Sunday he needs on his end.
“There are a lot of people with a similar pace,” the Suzuki rider insisted, “and this makes it difficult to understand.
“There are 8-10 riders with really similar pace. It’s difficult to know what type of race we will see, but I don’t know if we’ll see a lot of overtakes.
“This type of race is maybe positive for Pecco. Ten riders are with a similar pace so that means that if he’s able to have a consistent one, it’s difficult for one rider to make a difference. He’s in a good position, but you know, you never know.”
