There is a very tempting answer to the question of 'what should Pecco Bagnaia learn from his MotoGP title defeat in 2024?'. That answer being: 'nothing'.
The case for that being the answer is robust. Bagnaia won 11 grands prix, led more grand prix laps than all but three riders this century (Casey Stoner in 2007, Jorge Lorenzo in 2015, Marc Marquez in 2019) and was generally the fastest rider pulling off the best weekends.
Take away either of his two crashes with the Marquez brothers and he's champion. Take away his mechanical failure in the sprint at Le Mans and he's probably champion.
All of that is to say not that he definitively deserved it over Jorge Martin, but there was a lot more done right here than wrong. Run it back a few times, and more often than not you probably get a third Bagnaia title.
So there is a genuine excuse for Bagnaia to go 'just wasn't our year, let's go again in 2025' and think no more of it.
That's not quite the approach he has taken.
"I know that we lost the championship for the mistakes. This is something that we'll improve," he said as part of his 'concession speech' during the Solidarity Grand Prix.
"I think the first thing I will have to learn is to understand the situations better. Because it's true that three out of these eight zeroes [non-scores] came from strange situations.
"The one in Portimao in Marc, the one in Jerez with Brad [Binder and Marco Bezzecchi], the one with Alex Marquez in Aragon. It's true that I was taken out by other riders, but all were situations that I could've maybe avoided.
"The one with Marc [I could have avoided by] maybe trying to wait a bit, maybe wait and don't cross the line [he was doing]. I'm saying that - but when I'm racing I just want to arrive the most in front that I can. But maybe for next year we try to improve that.
"The one for Alex Marquez, I was clearly faster by tenths - four tenths - and I didn't wait because he went wide, I said 'OK, it's my moment'. Then he touched me and made me crash. The one with Brad, the same. I think I have to learn from my mistakes.
"The others were more tricky to analyse."
Of the solo errors, Bagnaia indicated the one that was most costly was crashing out of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix when he was "easily finishing third".
He told MotoGP.com: "Sometimes it's better to think more. Maybe finishing fifth or fourth rather than crashing."
If Bagnaia had that mindset above everything from round one - then, yes, he probably wins the championship. He wins this championship. Whether that puts him in the best stead to win a championship - let's say, the 2025 championship - is a different matter entirely.
Again, there is too much of a temptation to say that the rider who won did everything quite right and the rider who lost did everything quite wrong.
If Martin had lost the 2024 title, it would be very easy to point at the Jerez crash from the lead, the Sachsenring crash from the lead or the bewildering pitstop at Misano as individual moments that robbed him. Those moments are also arguments, true, that Bagnaia really should've won in 2024 - but when you're talking about a 40-race season, moments like these will accumulate.
Clearly, there are things for Bagnaia to learn - but those lessons need to be taken in in the right way, because otherwise they can do more harm than good.
Let's take, for instance, that Misano error, 16 points for third place gone in a flash - for the faint promise of a four- or nine-point gain. Not worth it, no - except... how can you be sure, in a two-rider title fight, that you won't need those four or nine points? How can you really settle for third easily when you are coming out of a double-header at one of your best tracks and into a run of overseas races where your rival might be a bit stronger?
It's not just about playing it safe. In 2025, instead of facing a satellite fourth-year rider - as good a rider as Martin is - Bagnaia will square off against Marquez at the same team. In the worst-case scenario, that's a team-mate and title rival who you can pencil in 25-to-37 points for at four or five tracks.
You 'play it safe' against a guy like that and he crushes your title bid with double-digit points swings on his best weekends.
So the lesson for Bagnaia, if there is one, shouldn't be conservatism but planning. He need not dull himself with the paranoia of a crash. What he, and his side of the garage, needs to do is be an accountant.
Before every round, before every race he must know the amount of points he must score and the positions he can afford to give up. He must have an almost scientific knowledge of what to do in a given race situation on a given track - and he must think of a way for his team to relay him any relevant information in-race when he needs to make a decision on when to attack.
He is one of the most cerebral riders in modern MotoGP. He can control races like few others can - it is not beyond him to 'control', as much as it can be controlled, a championship fight.
Sometimes, a stupid chase from a distant third place can cost you 16 points you cannot afford to lose - but sometimes, a last-second push in a lost-cause victory bid can turn 20 points into 25 and, more importantly, a big fat zero for your rival. That's kind of what happened at the Sachsenring, even if Martin wouldn't say that Bagnaia's sudden burst of pressure was a factor in his crash.
If there's one weakness to Marquez, Bagnaia's next presumed title rival, it's that he sometimes chases points that aren't really there to be chased - and pays the price with a non-score.
Bagnaia's done that, too, of course - and he can't do that in 2025. But he also can't be passive, because Marquez will punish that, perhaps like no other rider.
But strike the right balance through meticulous preparation - and the '24 defeat can be overwritten by legacy-defining future successes.
