Ai Ogura: What his star-making MotoGP debut really shows

When it comes to Ai Ogura in MotoGP, it was never all that complicated.

If you largely stick to following MotoGP and not the lower classes - understandable, as there's only so many hours in the day - your knowledge of Ogura before today's breakout may have largely been to the tune of 'the guy who Trackhouse picked for a MotoGP seat over the USA synergy option of Joe Roberts'.

It's hard to say how much real pushback there was to that move - but there was and remains an understanding at least that an American rider would've been important to MotoGP, and Trackhouse team boss Davide Brivio answered no shortage of questions on 'Ogura vs Roberts' specifically.

And it rose back near the surface of the mind earlier this month when Roberts, in an appearance on the Gypsy Tales podcast, admitted that there was a point in 2024 when he felt the Trackhouse nod was close before Ogura got the nod instead.

Roberts as part of the interview said he sees Ogura as a friend and described him as a "really cool guy" and an "incredible rider". But he also theorised that Ogura's wave of momentum that took him to the Moto2 title last year came from that "validation" of being chosen by Trackhouse, whereas Roberts himself being denied that validation contributed to his Moto2 season stuttering (while injuries didn't help).

Roberts knows what was going on in his head, but I think he's overthinking the Ogura side of things. I think Ai Ogura was drawing confidence from the fact that he's Ai Ogura, a rider who has long been good enough for MotoGP and was clearly confident enough in that to pass up multiple opportunities to move up with Honda - in its Idemitsu-backed LCR seat - while holding out for something better.

Fourth in the sprint on his debut today, Ogura said the result was a "big surprise" to himself and aided by him being able to emulate Pecco Bagnaia's smooth riding ahead of him. And it is indeed a surprise - but... honestly, not that big. And not just because he was already good in the pre-season.

This is a rider who ended up four points off the title in his second Moto3 season, a rider who finished eighth in his first Moto2 season (top-10 as a rookie in that series is a clear-as-day marker of a future MotoGP rider) and who then fought for the title as a Moto2 sophomore.

He lost that title in very calamitous, clumsy fashion, but that's not what you judge a MotoGP prospect by. He then had a poor injury-disrupted 2023 - but that's also not what you judge a MotoGP prospect by.

'Maturity', poise under pressure, ability to see out a title campaign - blah, blah, blah. All those things matter, for sure. But before any of that, you look at the peaks and you look at the speed. Ogura has never not had the speed, and his peaks were enormous.

There's still 39 races ahead so it might be premature to do a victory lap, and in any case it's clear the 2025 Aprilia is kind of awesome, but Trackhouse boss Brivio can already take today as validation. And former team chief Wilco Zeelenberg, said to have played a part in the decision, can allow himself a smile, too.

Except... you never really needed to be a talent guru to know this guy is legit. 

And let's take no more from today, for there will be bad days coming in Ogura's 2025. Bad stretches, too - Pedro Acosta found that out in 2024.

A fourth on debut lets you dream - but the range of outcomes is wide. The certainty is just one: if there was somehow any doubt before, Ogura is where he belongs. It was never all that complicated.