While the fight for the IndyCar championship is as unpredictable as ever with Alex Palou the favourite but fighting a schedule that finishes with four ovals in five races, another perhaps even more lucrative battle is also bubbling.
A contract between the teams and series known as the Leaders' Circle acts as a condition of entry for both parties and within it, the knowledge that the 22 highest finishing cars in the championship will be rewarded with just under $1 million at the end of the year for their participation in the series and finish.
The champion and the 22nd-place car both get the same figure.
It’s a crucial year for the Leaders’ Circle, as we’ll explain, so the contest is as fierce as ever.
Why is it complicated?
First off, because the Leaders’ Circle is a contract between the teams and series, that’s a convenient way for both parties to avoid discussing it and regularly plead the fifth.
So there’s no document with information on it, only uncovering information via the teams is possible to ascertain the information.
It’s further complicated that recent agreements have stipulated certain conditions that have ruled some cars out. Only three cars per team are eligible, so two of Ganassi’s cars, the #4 of Kyffin Simpson and Marcus Armstrong’s #11 (above), are both ineligible.
Those two cars therefore have to be removed from the rankings.
Why is it so important in 2024?
There are a couple of very significant reasons why making the Leaders’ Circle this year is so important compared to any other.
First is that costs have shot up in the second half of the year with the introduction of the new hybrid unit. It’s not just the cost of the actual unit, but the associated items and staff needed to run it effectively, plus any damage you have to repair alongside.
The last thing you want is to have this additional cost over your head and then lose $1 million from your budget compared to last year.
Secondly and much more importantly, behind the scenes an effort for IndyCar to introduce a franchise system is being divised, although like when it was first discussed, certainly in the CART days and probably before that, it keeps being delayed and no one can agree on the details.
The system would work like NASCAR’s charter system where an entry is purchased from IndyCar and then owned by that team, which gives them something tangible for their team to sell.
Because grids have been rising in the series over recent years, finding the right number to set the charter at is tough, plus the one thing the teams want - a guaranteed entry to the Indy 500 where most sponsorship money is from - is the one thing IndyCar can’t give without upsetting fans and ending over a hundred years of tradition.
These are tough almost ideological questions to answer.
Frankly, trying to introduce this system on short notice is ridiculous when teams and drivers are planning years ahead, but that’s just how this goes.
If IndyCar decides to use the Leaders’ Circle as the framework for the entries getting charters, then being in that 22 becomes vital for how your IndyCar future will look.
Who is on the cusp entering last 5 races?
Technically, with five races to go, championship leader Alex Palou is the only person safe from dropping out of the top 22, but somehow we think that’s unlikely!
Currently, Agustin Canapino is the first car out of the top 23, and his car’s best score this year is 18. He has just lost his seat, but if we say hypothetically whoever replaces him in that car can score 18 points at every race for the rest of the year, that would take its tally to 206.
So for the case of this discussion, cars already on 207 are safe because Canapino is unlikely to average more than 18 points per race. He's hit that score once in 12 races.
The Leaders Circle battle adjusted by The Race
14 Ed Carpenter #21 201 points
15 Juncos Hollinger #77 199 points
16 Rahal Letterman Lanigan #15 197 points
17 McLaren #6 192 points
18 Ganassi #8 173 points
19 Meyer Shank #66 144 points
20 Rahal Letterman Lanigan #30 135 points
21 Ed Carpenter #20 123 points
22 AJ Foyt #41 121 points
CUTOFF
23 Juncos Hollinger #78 -5 points
24 Dale Coyne #51 -6 points
25 Dale Coyne #18 -30 points
The likelihood of anyone above the 17th-placed #6 Arrow McLaren of Nolan Siegel being outscored by 16 or more points per race by any of the other contenders seems extremely unlikely, especially as the person in that 16th position, Graham Rahal, has averaged 16.59 points per race this season.
So using a different metric, let’s apply Canapino’s current points per race to the rest of the season, 9.91, which would take him to 166 rounded up. So let’s make the #66 Meyer Shank car the last car capable of having any realistic chance of dropping out of the Leaders Circle.
Our further adjusted ranking for the Leaders' Circle
19 Meyer Shank #66 144 points
20 Rahal Letterman Lanigan #30 135 points
21 Ed Carpenter #20 123 points
22 AJ Foyt #41 121 points
CUTOFF
23 Juncos Hollinger #78 -5 points
24 Dale Coyne #51 -6 points
25 Dale Coyne #18 -30 points
Let's have a look at these entries in more detail and see if we can paint a better picture of what's to come.
19 Meyer Shank #66
We can almost immediately rule out this car of being at any risk because since the team swapped Tom Blomqvist for David Malukas, the young American has delivered some excellent performances.
Only poor fortune has stopped Malukas scoring better results - and a couple of small mistakes, but he is rebounding from a wrist injury that ended his McLaren career before it started - and finished 6th last time out to go with a string of impressive qualifying performances.
His finishes at Gateway read second and third so far in his career and short ovals tend to suit him. Andretti was strong in testing there last week, he feels untouchable.
20 RLL #30
Given he’s the only IndyCar driver to get out in an F1 car proper this year, Pietro Fittipaldi’s performances have been very disappointing this year.
Both his team-mates have four top 10s each and he has none.
The team hasn’t always performed flawlessly but for a driver of Fittipaldi’s calibre - even with an acceptable amount of bad luck - he has been poor. He has comfortably the worst average start of the team as well.
He’s unlikely to be dropped into that Leaders' Circle battle, but he shouldn’t be anywhere near it anyway.
RLL running a fourth car for Juri Vips at Portland provides somewhat of a seat showdown - even if it isn't intended that way - as if Vips performs better over that weekend it will be hard to make a case for Fittipaldi keeping his seat.
21 Ed Carpenter #20
Unfortunately Christian Rasmussen’s second best result of the year came under a different ECR car number, and with eponymous team owner Ed Carpenter handling the ovals in this entry having only three finishes inside the top 20 in his last eight attempts, Rasmussen’s impressive road and street rookie season appears to be going to waste.
There’s more bad news as Carpenter will be taking four of the last five races in this car, so its ability to stay safe may hinge on Rasmussen’s Portland result and how strong the drivers on the cusp are, barring a big upswing in form from the boss.
22 AJ Foyt #41
Despite his team-mate fighting for the top 10, Sting Ray Robb is 21st in the overall standings and feels the likely driver to make way from this field for Canapino.
However, Robb has been marginally better on the ovals and they make up the majority of the rest of the season, so there might be hope yet.
Of the drivers we’ve outlined here that have done an oval, Robb has the better average finish in that discipline this season over any of them, although admittedly there's only been three races on two tracks so far.
Oval average finish for full-time drivers battling for top 22 place
12 Siegel* 13
15 Robb 17.33
18 Malukas 19.5
20 Carpenter 19.67
21 Lundqvist 20.33
24 Legge 23.33
25 Fittipaldi 23.67
26 Canapino 24.67
*DNQ for Indy 500
23 Juncos Hollinger #78
Agustin Canapino has had so much bad luck on track this year but there’s only so much luck can explain away a 9.91 points per race average, and that's part of why he's lost his seat before the end of the season.
The team hasn't looked as good on ovals this year as it did last season - we have only had three oval races in fairness - but that's a concern and picking a battle-hardened oval driver for the end of the season will be top priority. Conor Daly fits that bill well.
24 Dale Coyne #51
25 Dale Coyne #18
We can’t do too much analysis here as we don’t know who is driving either Dale Coyne car on the ovals for the rest of the year.
Harvey’s average on ovals we’ve mentioned, if he’s able to return from injury after back issues had him replaced at Iowa. Katherine Legge has been better in the #51 but is still only marginally ahead of some of their Leaders' Circle rivals.
Coyne’s best bet would have been to bring back Conor Daly - who stood in for Harvey at Iowa - and put him in the #51 which has the best chance of breaching the top 22, and hope he can deliver oval magic.
But he looks set to take Canapino's seat at Juncos. Back to the drawing board for drivers at Coyne again, which has fielded a whopping nine already.
Legge moving to the #18 would make sense to maximise the points available.
