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The IndyCar Series title could be decided at this weekend’s Indianapolis road course double-header, with two of its best drivers Scott Dixon and Josef Newgarden set to battle it out.
Both Newgarden and his ex-Red Bull Formula 1 engineer Gavin Ward believe they have had quicker Penske cars at times this year than in their title-winning year in 2019, but misfortune has been prevalent throughout the campaign.
Dixon – boosted by a new engineer in Mike Cannon and his Chip Ganassi Racing team absorbing its Ford GT department following the end of that programme – has been on a roll.
He won the first three races of the season and added another victory later in the year to hold a 72-point gap over Newgarden entering this weekend.
An uncharacteristic mistake in the last race at Mid-Ohio for Dixon has left the comeback door open though.
Whatever happens, Newgarden must outscore Dixon by 19 points to leave enough wiggle room in the St Petersburg finale to keep the race alive.
The situation is slightly complicated by two quirks in the IndyCar scoring system.
While the headline element is there are 50 points for a race win, there’s actually a 54-point maximum score as one bonus point is on offer for taking pole, one point for every driver who leads a lap, and another two for the driver who leads most laps.
But at the other end of the scale, as long as Dixon starts the remaining races he won’t score 0 at any of them even if he retires.
The IndyCar points system goes right down to a potential 33rd place in the classification, reflecting the traditional Indianapolis 500 grid size, with retirements scoring too. Drivers placed 25th to 33rd all get five points, with a 25-car field for the Indy double-header this weekend and the exact size of the field for the St Petersburg finale not completely clear yet.
So in theory, unless Dixon fails to start, the maximum swing possible in a single race is 49 points – which would be the swing if Newgarden won from pole (a 54-point score) and led most laps while Dixon was the race’s first retirement (a five-point score).
A 55-point gap leaving Indianapolis would secure Dixon the title, while a 54-point gap would also secure it if Newgarden doesn’t win a race at Indy to allow the chance to even up the race win stakes
Those points just for participating make quite a big difference. If Dixon wins the Indianapolis opener on Friday (a 51-point score – first place + led a lap – regardless of other bonuses) and Newgarden is 14th or lower, Dixon’s lead is big enough that he could head home on the spot and miss the rest of the season. Factoring in the points you get just for starting, though, Dixon is effectively champion if he wins and Newgarden is seventh or lower, because that would mean Dixon only has to start the last two races.
“For us, we just have to treat it like any other race weekend and try to get maximum points,” said Dixon.
“The obvious goal is to go out there and try to win, but unfortunately there’s 23, 24 others that have the same goal.
“Try to do better than we did at the last double-header at Mid-Ohio where I definitely made a very large mistake, that gave away some pretty easy points there.”
Dixon has four wins to Newgarden’s two, which is the ace up the sleeve as any tie in points is decided by the driver with the most wins.
A 55-point gap leaving Indianapolis would secure Dixon the title, while a 54-point gap would also secure it if Newgarden doesn’t win a race at Indy to allow the chance to even up the race win stakes.
It means Newgarden is on the back foot, especially at this venue which is the only place on the 2020 calendar he hasn’t won at. He looked dominant early on in the July race before an ill-timed caution ruined his bid.
But he isn’t likely to take any big risks in trying to overhaul the points gap.
“In certain situations you can hang yourself out by trying to stay out too long, creating a little bit too much risk for yourself,” said Newgarden.
“I’ve had years where it just seems like we catch the yellow at the right point all the time. This year’s been the opposite of that. It’s hard to complain about it. It’s IndyCar racing. Sometimes it falls your way, sometimes it doesn’t.
“What I’m hoping is that these last three races we just have the good end of the luck to finish the season.”
The race will be complicated by the fact that it will be much cooler than it was in July when the series last visited the Indy road course, and the opportunity for two or three stops makes it easy to get strategy very, very wrong.
The first race of the weekend is 85 laps while the second is 75. Practice and qualifying for race one take place on Thursday with the race on Friday, before another qualifying and race two on Saturday.
Four other drivers can still mathematically win the title but are likely too far behind without a double-points finale, which has been IndyCar’s usual format in recent seasons but does not apply in 2020.
There are still concerns over whether St Petersburg will go ahead due to the high number of cases in the Florida region and the fact that an open race in a town centre may be tough to police in terms of attendance and social distancing.
However, numbers appear to be trending down in Tampa and there’s no sign of backing down from the series. It has extra motivation to get the race underway as St Pete was postponed in March on the day track action was supposed to signal the start of the 2020 IndyCar season.
