The 2024 Formula E season is set up for a dramatic finale at London ExCeL Arena this weekend with seven drivers mathematically able to take the championship.
With Jake Dennis and Jean-Eric Vergne needing absolute miracles to take the crown, the five that are most likely are in current points order Nick Cassidy, Mitch Evans, Pascal Wehrlein, Antonio Felix da Costa and Oliver Rowland.
Title contenders
1 Nick Cassidy 167
2 Mitch Evans -12
3 Pascal Wehrlein -12
4 Antonio Felix da Costa -33
5 Oliver Rowland -36
6 Jean-Eric Vergne -38
7 Jake Dennis -45
58 points available in London
Rowland and da Costa need an outrageous set of results and circumstances to stand a chance, meaning that in all reality it's between Cassidy, Evans and Wehrlein, as 12 points separates them with a maximum of 58 available.
Within the battle for supremacy sits several key themes. Here are what The Race believes are the five main topics to look out for as Formula E’s 10th season gets set for a dramatic finale.
How will Jaguar manage its rapid Kiwis?
This isn’t the 1960s but if it were, the Cassidy and Evans relationship would mirror the McLaren team of the era’s ‘Bruce and Denny show’ of two superb Kiwi drivers in the same garage alternating dominant wins and each slapping each other on the back in a harmonious winning parade. For McLaren and Hulme then, read Cassidy and Evans now.
That’s the perfect dream for senior Jaguar management heading into London ExCeL this weekend. But it's not reality, rather a utopian fantasy.
The likelihood is that at some stage, barring a nightmare for Evans on Saturday that leaves Cassidy as Jaguar’s clear main hope, the two Big Cats will have to claw it out between them at some stage. When that happens in the white heat of a title battle misjudgements can be made and tears can easily be shed.
Jaguar has been generally strong in intra-team orchestration moves this season, particularly in Monaco, yet on occasions it hasn’t quite been maximised -particularly for Evans in Berlin and Cassidy in Shanghai.
The London ExCeL track is perhaps the most fraught for choreography and plans A,B,C and on going wrong. The emphasis on qualifying means that should a mistake drop one of the cars to outside the top eight then the likelihood of working together is remote. Yet, the strength of Jaguar’s form this season, particularly in qualifying from both drivers, means a strong likelihood that they will be close together on the grid.
Should Jaguar get into a similar position it worked its way into in Monaco and achieve a 1-2 once attack modes are made then that is when some loosening of gloves starts to happen, particularly should Cassidy be leading Evans.
Add into mix the fact that Evans has been at Jaguar since day one and Cassidy is in his first season in the works team, and that is where the frisson might start to bubble a bit.
Whatever occurs, for the neutral, it is an absolutely delicious prospect all-round.
Will Cassidy learn from 2023 unselfishness?
Twelve months ago, as Cassidy disappeared into the distance in the first London E-Prix, completed his final attack mode, keeping the lead, and then looking in the mirrors and seeing his experienced Envision team-mate Sebastien Buemi there, part of him felt he was going to take the title challenge to the final day.
But then, after laborious strategy meetings prior to this scenario playing out, something else in his mind tripped to Envision’s desire to maximise points for its teams’ title quest.
Cassidy hung back and allowed Buemi to pass him. It was the start of the end as he got sucked into danger, fought back, but then got tripped up by his presumed guardian Swiss angel and ended his hopes with a scrunched nose box and a trip to the pits.
From a position of hopeful strength to pressure Dennis in the title hothouse, Cassidy was left fuming over perceived indecision by his team. The upshot was he lost any chance of the title, although Envision eventually took the teams’ crown largely thanks to Cassidy’s excellent wet weather win on the final day of the season.
Cassidy confessed to The Race that day he was too communal in his outlook and should’ve thought about his own title bid and not about the team. Something tells us now that there is perhaps a more selfish streak in him wanting to break out should a similar situation arise.
That’s absolutely not to question Cassidy’s team player responsibilities because he has proved this season several times that he is prepared to maximise points for his employer. But with title stakes so high there is a fine line between personal desire and the greater good of the team. It’s like an electric high wire in Formula E.
How will Cassidy, with that 12-point advantage, play it? It very much depends on the specific scenario that develops. But certainly, what happened a year ago will inform some of his thinking whether it's overtly conscious or not.
Can Envision assist Jaguar?
Frankly, Envision has gone missing in too many races this season. The Race outlined some of the reasons why recently.
At Portland last month a turnaround felt very real as Cassidy’s replacement Robin Frijns finally converted the promise, while team-mate Buemi was unlucky, after a race damaging tyre pressure penalty, to not be close behind.
After dominating the early stages of last year’s London Saturday race and then Cassidy leading lights to flag on the Sunday, Envision should be right in the conversation again this season.
Should it finally execute the promise and potential then it should come into play for Jaguar to potentially call upon their relationship as manufacturer and customer for favours. That could be getting in the way of the Porsches or just holding them up. Whatever it takes, Jaguar will surely make ‘the call’.
But it is believed that some elements of the Envision stable feel Jaguar has been less than free in some information exchanges this season and that some pass down of technical aspects has been less than flowing.
Jaguar though is adamant that all software and hardware has been identical across all four of the Jaguar I-Type 6 cars, and it's actually just Envision not being as good as Jaguar.
May this conjecture have festered and come back to haunt both parties? That remains to be seen, but the assumption has to be that for a relationship that still has two full seasons left to run, any blinkers worn this weekend by Envision could be short-sighted and potentially damaging longer-term, especially as it has no skin in game when it comes to the sharp end of the championship points table.
Will Porsche make da Costa help Wehrlein?
Weaponising team-mates is not something that most teams will admit to, and in some cases drivers plainly don’t like doing it, yet if asked they will heartily be committed disruptors.
Expect this kind of gamesmanship to play out in some of the darkened corridors of ExCeL this weekend. And the likely candidate to be asked to do this is current form man Antonio Felix da Costa.
Thirty-three points in arrears, da Costa will really need a win or a second on Saturday and a poor race from Wehrlein, Evans and Cassidy to have any realistic chance of becoming a genuine title challenger rather than the rank outsider he is now.
Should that come to pass da Costa, with recent strong qualifying form and a taste for elbows out battles, could be a vital prop for Wehrlein and Porsche in both slashing Jaguar’s 33-point teams’ championship lead and assisting Wehrlein by going on safari to tame the Big Cats.
Da Costa was strong in London last season, rising from 17th on the grid to second at the chequered flag, although this performance was taken away after a controversial tyre pressure penalty that went all the way to the International Sporting Court.
Will Dennis have to help Wehrlein too?
Ironic. Amusing. Potentially incendiary.
Dennis helping out his old sparring partner Wehrlein? Surely not.
Like a lost Roald Dahl ‘Tales of the Unexpected’ script this one will require a double take if it happens at all. Yet, it really could.
Dennis admitted to The Race at Portland last month that if Andretti’s Porsche customer status was called upon to assist Wehrlein’s title ambitions that it would be “an irony, and a flashback for sure”.
That recollection would be last year at London ExCeL when Dennis expected Wehrlein to stay off his case as he aimed to gather the necessary points to take the title. The works Porsche driver clearly didn’t get the message, nibbling at Dennis and spiking some angry reaction, not just from the champion elect but also from a furious team boss Michael Andretti, who memorably vented spleen at Porsche execs in the adjoining garage.
Despite some truth and reconciliation attempts pre-season, Dennis and Wehrlein have been at it again this season on numerous occasions. Like a high-powered Tom and Jerry skit, the pair just can’t help themselves when within similar real-estate.
With Dennis likely to be out of mathematical contention heading into Sunday, a lot will depend on Wehrlein’s points score on Saturday when it comes to possible chats between Porsche and Andretti.
“Stuff doesn’t go unforgotten so we’ll have to wait and see if I’m ever in that situation,” said Dennis before Portland of the prospect of doing Wehrlein a favour.
That feels a bit ominous in the context of the Brit and German’s uptight past relationship, so for the neutrals, it's very much one of the more entertaining possible prospects for the coming weekend.
