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This weekend’s Russian Grand Prix will likely give Valtteri Bottas the best chance of a victory in his Mercedes farewell season.
The Sochi circuit has, after all, been the scene of some of his greatest moments in Formula 1 and, as team principal Toto Wolff put it, “he’s driving better than ever” following a strong weekend at Monza.
He has a formidable record at Sochi. Bottas has never qualified or finished outside the top four, albeit with the caveat that he was classified 12th in 2015. But this was only after Kimi Raikkonen’s optimistic last-lap attempt to take third place resulted in the Williams driver spinning into the wall.
This record includes a pole position in 2018 and victories in 2017 and ’20. There was also the infamous lost win there in 2018 when he was ordered to drop behind Hamilton in order to protect him from title rival Sebastian Vettel. So let’s call that three victories, even if one of them is only a moral one. While it’s not Bottas’s favourite track, it’s certainly one he’s happy to come back to.
“I like it, but I wouldn’t say my favourite track,” said Bottas. “My favourite for a long time has been Japan and then there are some other tracks in top three.
“But it’s definitely a track that I enjoy coming back to because I’ve had pretty good success here and a couple of wins. One time I nearly won, [I’ve had] some podiums, and my first ever win was here.
“So it’s obviously a special memory and that brings even more positivity coming here.”
On his first visit there in 2014, Bottas excelled by coming close to grabbing a sensational pole position for Williams. After two sectors, he was an astonishing three-tenths of a second up on the lap that gave Hamilton pole position and, had had he matched his previous-best final sector time, he would have ended up just 0.092s slower.
On a final run, you would usually expect an improvement but Bottas had thrown caution to the wind, slightly overused the tyres and after giving away a little time early in that final sector, had a big moment in the penultimate corner, followed by a smaller one in the last turn, that ensured he was only third – but in a car that really was only good enough for the second row. That was his first competitive session at Sochi and laid the foundations for his reputation as a master of the place.
The crown has slipped slightly in recent years. From 2014-2018, Bottas was always ahead of his team-mate at Sochi, whether it was Felipe Massa at Williams or Hamilton at Mercedes. But while he won last year’s race, that was only because Hamilton was penalised for conducting practice starts in the wrong place.
So what makes Bottas so quick at Sochi and should we expect him to be so again this weekend?
Firstly, it’s a track that has worked well for Mercedes, which has won every race held there since 2014. Granted, the 2019 race really should have gone the way of Ferrari, but that seven out of seven record does show this has historically been a Mercedes track.
While Wolff keeps pointing out that history has little to say about what is a very different battle this year, it might also prove to be the strongest of the remaining circuits for Mercedes relative to Red Bull.
It’s a track where aero efficiency counts, albeit not as powerfully as at Monza, and with Max Verstappen facing a three-place grid penalty (possibly starting from the back if he takes a new power unit) even if Red Bull is strong its spearhead will be blunted.
It’s possible Red Bull could be more of a threat given that, despite the long blast from the last corner up to Turn 2, it has plenty of corners that do require a decent level of downforce. However you look at it, Bottas is in a potentially winning car this weekend, although that’s hardly unusual given he drives for Mercedes.
Secondly, Bottas likes this type of track. He historically goes well on circuits that have the type of smooth-surface asphalt that is used at Sochi. This fine-grain surface tends to offer a little less grip and make the car slightly more front limited, which can favour Bottas over Hamilton given the slightly more progressive loading of the tyres in the entry phase. Bottas has a great feel for this, which is one of the major reasons why he’s often referred to as the ‘green-track world champion’.
The one downside here is that the track surface has matured to become a little higher-grip over the years, with Pirelli upgrading its ‘asphalt abrasion’ rating out of five from two ahead of last year’s race to three this year. So while Sochi’s characteristics are still good for Bottas, they have edged slightly away from him as the years have passed.
“There’s no secret,” said Bottas of Sochi.
“It’s a track where initially it’s not easy to find the flow, but if you find it then you’re fast.
“In recent years also the Tarmac has been changing quite a bit to be a bit more rough than in the initial years. So every year, the track evolves, and you need to find the secrets again.”
That increase in abrasiveness helps Hamilton relative to Bottas as it is better to suit his style in on a flat-out lap of loading up the front tyres quickly and achieving rapid entry rotation. This could explain why Bottas’s initial advantage over Hamilton in 2017 and ’18 has been reversed since.
Thirdly, there’s also the psychological aspect. Based on his performance at Monza, Bottas appears to be driving with greater freedom now the various weights of trying to take on Hamilton and also the annual battle to secure a Mercedes future have been eliminated. He isn’t going to beat Hamilton to the world championship, he doesn’t have a Mercedes future so perhaps he really is back to his best?
As ever, the major obstacle for Bottas remains Hamilton. This is not only from the perspective that Hamilton has been quicker than him for the past two years at Sochi but also the fact that Mercedes’ title contender needs every point he can get.
Were Bottas to be leading with Hamilton second in a scenario where swapping positions is straightforward, from a team perspective it would be logical to do so given the extra seven points on offer.
In 2018, Bottas was shocked by the instruction although that was primarily a consequence of it not having been discussed in advance. The error at Mercedes was not the team order, but the poor way it was managed.
“That’s a few years ago, but at least now I can be fine with everything,” said Bottas.
“But at that point, yes, it was painful. And it was hard to accept. We’ve obviously moved on since and also, I’ve grown and things are different.”
As for what is different this year, Bottas has made it clear that in a situation where Hamilton was second to him this year, he would let him past to maximise the team’s chances of an eighth consecutive double world championship.
“We have discussed many things internally and including different scenarios,” said Bottas.
“Every race is always different. There could be times that we need to play as a team and I need to take one for the team. And in this situation, yes, I will do it because we’re here as a team and need to make sure that we win both titles.
“Not only the constructors’, but also drivers’. And at the moment Lewis has a greater chance for that. So that’s the situation now at the moment.”
Bottas’s priority will be to ensure that he does get into a strong enough position to have to do that, which will be no easy task given the level Hamilton is operating at.
Whatever happens, there’s no better circuit for Bottas to go to and build on his strong Monza showing than Sochi.
