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Max Verstappen will not tell “fairytales” about his Belgian Grand Prix prospects and his realism extends to his Formula 1 title hopes which aren’t how they seem “on paper”.
Verstappen is second in the 2020 championship standings and splitting the Mercedes drivers after beating Valtteri Bottas in the last four races and winning the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix.
But he is 37 points behind six-time world champion Lewis Hamilton because of a retirement in the season opener, and does not believe he will rein Hamilton in at Spa this weekend either.
“We kept saying we need heat, we need heat – well, we definitely got beaten in the heat in Barcelona” :: Max Verstappen
Red Bull has failed to come close to Mercedes in qualifying this season and struggled to offer a challenge in grands prix either, with the second Silverstone race an exception because of hot temperatures, a high-energy circuit and softer Pirelli tyres.
Pirelli has brought softer compounds to Belgium but the forecast is cool, there may be rain as well, and Verstappen only has one podium finish at a circuit that has not been a Red Bull favourite in the V6 turbo-hybrid era.
“We kept saying we need heat, we need heat – well, we definitely got beaten in the heat in Barcelona,” said Verstappen.
“Maybe we could have done things better, but a gap like that even with a bit of set-up work it’s not going to change.
“Maybe the tyres will help. I don’t know, it’s not going to be warm enough I think anyway.
“So yeah, it’s tricky, but I always like to be realistic. I don’t like to tell fairytales.
“It will be hard. But I will try to of course be on the podium.”
Another top-three finish this weekend would be Verstappen’s sixth in a row but despite his perseverance his Austrian GP DNF leaves him with a frustrating deficit to Hamilton.
Opportunistic second-place finishes in Hungary and Spain, plus the fortune of inheriting second in the British GP when Bottas had a puncture, are the reason Verstappen is ahead of one Mercedes.
Without losing a likely podium, or even a shot at victory, in the Austria opener Verstappen could be as close as 10 points behind Hamilton.
“If you take the first race away with Max having the DNF, I think if you look at the results it would be very, very close in points still,” said Hamilton when asked by The Race if he still viewed Verstappen as a title threat.
“And obviously they’ve had very strong results. And they’re getting closer in races, maybe in qualifying we do have the edge but when it comes to the race we’re generally a lot closer.
“We’re not even halfway through the season. And so I, absolutely, keep my eye on them.
“I think they still are a title runner, and so we need to stay on our toes.”
Even if Verstappen falls short, he can score his best championship finish in F1 this season by keeping Bottas at bay, having finished third last year.
But this was a campaign that Red Bull and Verstappen expected to feature a championship bid.
“If you look at the pure pace we are too slow” :: Max Verstappen
Instead, a combination of Red Bull’s tricky RB16 and hugely impressive Mercedes gains have given Hamilton one of his most potent cars of an already-dominant era.
And that reality is why Verstappen must hold out for miracles to win this weekend or claw his way into the title fight for real.
When asked by The Race how he assessed the first six races, and how splitting the Mercedes drivers reflects his performance, Verstappen said: “Looking at pure pace they of course both should have been ahead of me in the championship.
“To be second in a few races where I think Mercedes had more pace, I think we definitely overachieved a bit and besides that I think we always maximised what we could.
“I’m of course very happy with that. As a team, and myself of course, we’re not here to be second or third, we want to fight for the championship.
“But you also have to accept the situation we are in that we are not really able to challenge.
“Yes it looks like it on paper, but if you look at the pure pace we are too slow.
“And at the moment we are relying on a bit of an off day for Mercedes or a bit of luck to win a race, so there’s a lot of work to do.”
Verstappen has previously ruled out the prospect of regular race wins before the end of the season at the earliest and potentially not until 2021.
The carry-over of mechanical components to next year at least affords Red Bull the opportunity to take momentum into the new season, something it has struggled to do since being dethroned following its run of four consecutive titles with Sebastian Vettel across 2010-13.
Red Bull has maintained a habit of developing well through the season but its weakness this year has, not for the first time, been losing too much ground early on.
Asked why that was the case, and if it shook his faith for the future after signing a multi-year extension to stay with Red Bull to 2024, Verstappen said: “Well ‘why?’ – it’s always difficult to say why, everybody’s doing their very best.
“Clearly they had a very good winter, Mercedes, they also find a lot of performance out of their engines. So, yeah, that meant we were a bit behind and we were just trying to do the best we can.
“We’ll see of course what the rest of the season will bring.
“They are still of course quite far ahead, but we don’t give up. I think that’s the mentality of the team, we will always keep fighting and go for every opportunity we have.
“And I do believe in it, for next year as well, it might get a bit complicated because of course the rules are still the same and you’re not allowed to change a lot on the cars.
“But then of course there are new rules coming in [in 2022] and it’s a new opportunity for everyone.”
Mercedes’ start to the season – six poles and five victories in six grands prix – has set it on course for a seventh consecutive title double.
Hamilton’s 37-point lead in the drivers’ championship is complemented by an 86-point lead over Red Bull in the constructors’ contest.
There are faint hopes from some rivals that Mercedes may be pegged back by an incoming rule change, delayed to next weekend’s Italian Grand Prix, that will eliminate the use of high-power engine modes in qualifying.
But this has been dismissed by Mercedes and Verstappen is not banking on it being a game-changer either.
“I don’t think I will move forward,” he said, having posted an average deficit of 1% in lap time to the lead Mercedes in qualifying this year.
“Hopefully a little bit closer, but the gap in qualifying is still too big so a qualifying mode is not going to make the difference.”
