Ferrari juniors Mick Schumacher and Callum Ilott were supposed to have their first grand prix weekend Formula 1 outings in opening Nurburgring practice.
The Eifel fog put paid to that, but heading into Friday we’d taken a close look at the pair’s journeys to this point, the question marks remaining over both, and what would be expected from them in FP1:
Ferrari’s Formula 1 proteges are not heading for a “shootout”, says sporting director Laurent Mekies. But the two leading juniors – Mick Schumacher and Callum Ilott – are due to be compared against one another in the toughest circumstances yet when they make their F1 race weekend debuts in first practice at the Nurburgring on Friday.
As Formula 2 championship leader, Schumacher is the best-placed of a suite of Ferrari Driver Academy prospects. He is replacing Antonio Giovinazzi at Alfa Romeo in FP1 at the Eifel Grand Prix.
But, seemingly against the odds, Callum Ilott is also forcing Ferrari to take him seriously. Schumacher’s nearest F2 championship rival will drive for Haas in place of Romain Grosjean.
Ferrari has arranged these FP1 outings as the next phase of their development. They drove at Fiorano last week in a 2018 Ferrari to prepare. Further F1 testing opportunities are likely at the end of the year.
Here, The Race’s Formula 1 journalist Scott Mitchell and deputy editor Valentin Khorounzhiy assess the rise of two Ferrari proteges who haven’t always looked like the real deal, analyse what still needs to be improved to convince Ferrari they are worthy of F1, and ponder what would count as a successful FP1 debut.
HOW THEY GOT HERE
SCHUMACHER: UNDERLYING STEEL
At 21, Schumacher is still developing. He’s arguably a case study in how misleading the term ‘potential’ can be. Schumacher inherited some pretty quick genes. But in the battle between nature and nurture, it’s clear his talent is more of the latter.
It would do Schumacher a disservice to describe his progress as ‘slow and steady’ but he has benefited from a calm and methodical approach to his performance that has gradually established him as a leading man in every championship he’s contested. Schumacher is not a Charles Leclerc, ‘smash a series straight away’ type. But few are.
On-track, Schumacher has made mistakes. Sometimes, even this year, he has made baffling misjudgements that have cost him wins. But there have also been some very impressive moments handling extreme pressure.
The year after Michael was hospitalised by his skiing accident, during what must have been an extraordinarily emotional and stressful period for the family, Mick was second in the European and World Karting Championships in the KF Junior category.
On his debut car-racing weekend, he withstood a sustained and close challenge to win a reverse-grid race on his third start.
And in the bigger, higher-stakes categories, he has found ways to come to the fore.
His sophomore F3 season was going terribly until mid-season. A controversial transformation in form – he won eight of the last 15 races, including five in a row – led to accusations he was being given an unfair technical advantage. But this was rebuffed by those around him. And he had little room for error given his deficit and his relentless run was rewarded with a dominant European title.
F2 hasn’t followed exactly the same pattern, but the theme has remained: an uninspired first season gives rise to a championship challenge the next. In a messy 2020 title battle it is Schumacher who has started to piece things together when it’s counted.
ILOTT: THE ROUGH DIAMOND
A couple of months ago, the current Formula 2 campaign finally looked like the one where it all comes together for Ilott, after five seasons of ups and downs on the junior single-seater scene.
Coming out of Barcelona in August, Ilott had taken three poles in a row and picked up a double-digit points lead over Robert Shwartzman. He’d been the fastest outright driver of the season, and now looked to have a relatively straightforward pathway to the title. It’s since turned out to have been anything but.
Ilott has always been viewed as seriously rapid and brimming with potential. Part of that reputation had come from his stellar karting career, while part has been assembled in recent years.
He followed in Max Verstappen’s immediate footsteps in going from karting to top-level Formula 3 and bypassing the usual intermediate steps, but while Verstappen’s 2014 campaign was an absurd career-making success, Ilott’s was just alright, and would ultimately cost him his place in the Red Bull junior programme – while also setting up what was a three-year stint in F3.
That concluded with a year at Prema in which he looked every bit the pre-season favourite and was regularly on pole, yet also made enough mistakes to end up only fourth – as Carlin driver Lando Norris took control of the title race to end Prema’s streak.
A sideways move to GP3 set up another campaign where Ilott was expected to be at least one of the two main contenders, yet he was only third-best in a three-way ART title fight, while his first F2 season the year after, though decent, hadn’t conclusively proven him as an F1 prospect.
This season should’ve – yet instead of having run away with the championship, he will now head to Bahrain with a 22-point gap to Schumacher to make up.
THE REMAINING DOUBTS
IS SCHUMACHER QUICK ENOUGH?
No poles as a Formula 2 rookie was one thing, even though he was driving for Prema. But no poles so far in a (potentially) title-winning season? Hmm. That’s a problem.
Schumacher’s proven at every level that his development curve is strong. There is no denying he is a well-rounded driver. But is he a quick one?
Race pace is an essential attribute and in a tyre-sensitive era it’s more valuable than possibly any other time. But there is no hiding poor qualifying pace in F1 and this is where Schumacher has a lingering question mark.
Let’s take his excellent F2 form that has propelled him into the points lead. Since the second Silverstone race he has scored points every time, with two wins and six other podiums across 12 races.
That is a phenomenally strong return by anyone’s standards, particularly as he has converted three lower grid positions in sprint races into podium finishes.
But he’s also earned a best grid position of third during that time. He’s yet to qualify on the front row all season. In fact, he’s only qualified on the second row twice.
Schumacher’s racing his way to what would be a deserved title, no doubt. But there will not be as much opportunity in F1 to atone for an underlying pace deficit.
IS ILOTT ROUNDED ENOUGH?
Much of Ilott’s deficit to Schumacher has come through various calamities – stalling out of the pits while net leader at Monza, being punted by Yuki Tsunoda at Spa, breaking his front wing at Mugello – very much a running theme through Ilott’s career.
The underlying pace has also not seemed quite as impressive, the average dragged down by an all-around poor Spa weekend. And, well, surprisingly bad days have also been a familiar feature of Ilott’s time in car racing so far.
‘Consistency’ is perhaps a bit of an overused buzzword when it comes setting targets for junior drivers, but there’s no way of getting around that – it’s what Ilott needs.
The other elephant in the room is that his highest-profile F1 test experience so far ended with him demolishing an Alfa Romeo C38 against the barriers at Barcelona last year.
Crashes happen and that one has been probably a touch over-emphasised, but because of that its significance now goes beyond the incident itself – it’s something that Ilott admits “a lot of people still hold against me” and something that he will almost certainly feel that he can put right with a tidy, rapid run on Friday.
THE TASK FOR FRIDAY
SCHUMACHER: FINISH THE JOB
Unlike Ilott, Schumacher’s not looking to put himself in the shop window. He’s looking to avoid jeopardising a deal that looks all-but-done.
Schumacher doesn’t quite have his name above the door of an Alfa garage in 2021. But it feels like his F1 graduation is in his hands, whereas Giovinazzi needs to prove he’s worth keeping on.
To that end, Schumacher needs to ‘finish the job’. That means getting the car on Friday, not doing anything silly, and showing enough speed and decent feedback that the team, or Ferrari, doesn’t get cold feet.
There is nothing Schumacher can do to look a hero in FP1. Especially if the conditions are as difficult as they risk being at the Nurburgring. What he needs is to prove to Alfa he’s a faster, smarter and more consistent driver than the one that tested for the team last year.
That will not be done in laptime alone, nor in direct comparison to Kimi Raikkonen.
‘Auditioning’ in FP1 can do a driver on the bubble more to harm their chances in FP1 than good, because this is about underlining growth. And that’s always a nuanced process that taps into finer details rather than headline times.
Schumacher’s FP1 debut is akin to, say, Norris’s in 2018. Norris still needed to convince McLaren he could do it when it counted, which is why he had two FP1 outings.
Back then, Norris adapted well to the car, he was relaxed, he made no mistakes, and he lapped quickly. He looked ready for F1. Schumacher needs to do the same.
ILOTT: DON’T CRASH
Haas team principal Guenther Steiner made sure to emphasise that Ilott absolutely shouldn’t try and blow the squad away with his raw pace in FP1.
“I think what I want to avoid is that he tries to impress us. That is not the task,” Steiner said. “Because when they try to impress you, they normally disappoint you, because they do something which is not good.
“We are going to speak with him this afternoon, the race engineers, what we want out of his test. We want consistent feedback of what he feels, what we’re doing, and not a fast time because it’s always difficult.
“It’s a lot of pressure, he was in an F1 car before, so he knows it. The most impressive thing he can do is not to do anything stupid.”
As far as messages go, this isn’t subtle – “do not crash”. And Ilott probably doesn’t need reminding after his Alfa Romeo experience.
Yet it’s also not a licence to go slow, and Ilott will know that too. However the F2 season pans out from here, he is seemingly not the favourite for an F1 promotion in 2021. Being absolutely perfect on Friday is probably the only way to change that.
