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Yuki Tsunoda only has a slight chance of being promoted to Red Bull’s Formula 1 team even if it follows through with its intention to replace Sergio Perez.
A meeting between Red Bull shareholders will take place after the season finale in Abu Dhabi, in which a final decision on its 2025 driver line-ups will be made.
Red Bull wants to give Perez the chance to step aside on his terms – by retiring – but is believed to be willing to pay him off if necessary, having only signed Perez to a new contract theoretically running to the end of 2026 back in June.
The plan to drop Perez means picking a replacement, with Liam Lawson currently expected to partner Max Verstappen instead. That would mean rejecting Tsunoda, who Red Bull has been resistant to as a top-team prospect for a long time.
Tsunoda is finally going to drive a contemporary Red Bull next week in the post-season Abu Dhabi, but this is as a favour to engine partner Honda, Tsunoda’s primary backer. It is not considered an evaluation and presently is unlikely to influence Red Bull’s decision.
If Tsunoda gets overlooked for Lawson, it would be a painful snub given he has probably been the fastest non-Verstappen Red Bull driver over the past two seasons.
Tsunoda recovered from a shaky rookie F1 season and looked increasingly impressive in his second season alongside Pierre Gasly in the second team, then has generally outperformed Nyck de Vries, Daniel Ricciardo and Lawson across 2023 and 2024.
His qualifying record is particularly impressive against Ricciardo and Lawson. He has also finished ahead of them more often than not, but that gap is closer - potentially supporting a Red Bull belief that Tsunoda's one-lap prowess stands out more than his dependability in races.
Actively denying Tsunoda an opportunity its leading junior driver would tend to be afforded would confirm that his place is permanently set at Red Bull’s second team until Honda leaves at the end of 2025.
Tsunoda has never felt like he’s been properly adopted as Red Bull’s ‘own’ drivers. Red Bull made Tsunoda a junior in 2019, when he moved from Japan to Europe to compete in Formula 3, but he was a Honda protege before then. Honda financially assisted his place in F1 after that and the Japanese manufacturer has pushed for more Tsunoda opportunities with Red Bull than the organisation itself has.
Tsunoda has been asked about his Red Bull situation several times. His confusion and frustration over what more he is supposed to do to be taken seriously even led to him asking journalists in Qatar to interview Red Bull and ask them if he was in the mix.
When asked by The Race if Tsunoda was a contender, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner said: “Speed-wise, we can see he’s fast. He’s experienced now, he’s making less mistakes.
“Everything is taken into account in any driver decision. We’ll weigh it all up after the season.
“The priority is to understand what the path is with Sergio.
“And of course, what you have to remember is the pressure of being Max’s team-mate is probably the hardest job in Formula 1.”
That answer is largely an advocation of Tsunoda’s attributes but the final line, about the pressure of being alongside Verstappen, hints at where Red Bull’s doubt lies.
It does not believe that Tsunoda is capable of being consistently at his best alongside Verstappen. There are concerns that he has made mistakes under pressure, and lost his cool over the radio too often - even now, when it has been made clear to him that needs to improve this aspect.
Another suggestion is that his technical feedback is not the strongest, as this was not considered as impressive as Ricciardo’s when the latter was back in the second team.
Tsunoda’s speed is not the problem, which ironically is why his form versus Lawson does not count against Lawson. Red Bull believes that Tsunoda offers a very good benchmark to judge Lawson, especially given the experience gap, and that Lawson ticks other boxes that Tsunoda does not.
Red Bull thinks Lawson is stronger mentally and will be more dependable than Tsunoda under pressure. Plus he has started close enough for Red Bull to believe that he will be more competitive as he gains experience.
Unfortunately for Tsunoda that means despite doing a consistently good job and deserving a chance to prove himself at Red Bull, he is almost certainly not going to get it.
Without a Red Bull Racing future, Tsunoda is likely to leave RB after next season – at which point Honda will also move from Red Bull to Aston Martin in 2026 for the next cycle of engine regulations.
The imminent end of the Honda partnership may also be a factor in why Red Bull is hesitant to put Tsunoda in its main team.
Where Tsunoda could go is unclear. Aston’s seats are taken by Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll but other teams – like Haas – were interested in Tsunoda before Red Bull confirmed it would keep him for 2025.
