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The 2023 Formula 1 season begins with an overwhelming title favourite but plenty of intrigue over which teams will challenge that favourite and how quickly.
Here are our writers’ takes on the biggest questions going into F1 2023, including some asked by our readers.
WHO WILL WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIPS?
Edd Straw: Max Verstappen and Red Bull. Based on the form we’ve seen so far, it’s impossible to predict anyone else.
Scott Mitchell-Malm: Max Verstappen and Red Bull.
Ben Anderson: Max Verstappen and Red Bull – and (it pains me to say) by a country mile.
Gary Anderson: Red Bull the drivers’, but Ferrari the constructors’. they have two more equal and fast drivers.
Dre Harrison: Red Bull and Max Verstappen to win with record hauls. I have Red Bull down for 17+ wins. I fear I might be being conservative here.
IS ASTON MARTIN GENUINELY COMPETITIVE?
Asked by Run NDC/@FozzyJ_46, MaiWheel/@MiguelGradaVIP and Wouter/@WouterN16
Scott Mitchell-Malm: Yes. I’m backing Alonso to fight for a podium in the first three races.
Edd Straw: Yes. It’s not going to be winning the world championship, but particularly early on there could be some strong results on the cards.
Gary Anderson: It will have moved forward but not sure it’s by as much as it looked like from testing.
Ben Anderson: It certainly looks that way. It’s difficult to shake the feeling there was a touch of Fernando Alonso showboating for Lawrence Stroll going on in testing – but the car looks a clear step forward so I reckon Aston Martin replaces McLaren as Alpine’s main rival for best-of-the-rest.
Dre Harrison: Not for wins, but I think points will be its floor with the occasional top five.
WILL MERCEDES GET IN TITLE CONTENTION?
Scott Mitchell-Malm: Not in 2023. But it will win multiple races, setting up a 2024 challenge.
Ben Anderson: Starting with what looks like a calmer evolution of the W13, not likely. The odd win later in the season maybe.
Gary Anderson: Yes but it won’t come like its previous championships – it will have to work for it.
Edd Straw: Just about. It’s incredibly difficult to play catch-up, so while getting back in contention could be possible doing anything more than that might prove beyond it.
Dre Harrison: I think it’s roughly where it was last year. The odd win, but not in true contention.
WILL FERRARI BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH VASSEUR IN CHARGE?
Asked by K.Roderick Tayengwa/@KudzaiRod
Edd Straw: How can it not be? It would be impossible for Fred Vasseur to not make Ferrari more consistent given what happened last year, frankly.
Gary Anderson: As far as team management is concerned, yes. As far as technical direction is concerned, no.
Scott Mitchell-Malm: Not yet. It’s too early for the small changes to take effect. He needs to see it in action to enact more improvements.
Ben Anderson: I don’t think this will automatically be the case. The test will come in how he responds when Ferrari inevitably makes a mistake. Then it depends on whether the rank and file react positively to the pressure this relative outsider applies to them.
Dre Harrison: Yes. Because nothing could be worse than last year.
WHICH ROOKIE WILL IMPRESS THE MOST?
Dre Harrison: Oscar Piastri. It’ll be easier to impress relatively when McLaren slips down the board due to its car being deemed an early write-off.
Gary Anderson: Logan Sargeant. He has already shown he can match his team-mate and that is all we judge any driver against.
Ben Anderson: Nyck de Vries. Bit of a stretch to call him a rookie, but apparently F1 says he is. Piastri should be top rookie, but I don’t fancy his chances much in that McLaren.
Scott Mitchell-Malm: Logan Sargeant, purely because the least is expected of him. So he will exceed most expectations. Piastri will do the best job overall.
Edd Straw: Oscar Piastri. He arguably has the toughest task given the big expectations on him, the quality of his team-mate and McLaren’s low expectations for the start of the season, but that also creates an opportunity for him to make an early impression and build from there.
WHY IS EVERYONE EXPECTING McLAREN TO BE SO FAR BACK?
Asked by Aaron May/@aaron_m7252
Edd Straw: Because it is. McLaren should be heading the midfield and inching up on the big three. Being mired deep in the mid-pack is not good enough and until its major upgrade arrives, that appears to be its fate.
Ben Anderson: The team basically admitted it messed up the aerodynamics of the car, having been slow on the uptake last season too, and by all accounts the car was awful to drive in testing. Damage limitation until Baku I think – then BIG pressure on that major upgrade taking things forward. In any case, publicly targeting being fourth best by the end of the season is surely an alarming regression in terms of McLaren’s internal expectations.
Dre Harrison: Because it’s had very little to write home besides Lando Norris in the last three to four years. Layoffs in the office before it got its new investment in 2020, a windtunnel still in the works meaning success is a long way off, the probable end of Daniel Ricciardo’s career and now its own bosses admitting it’s underperforming.
Scott Mitchell-Malm: The car looked a handful on track, it lacks a bit of mileage after more pre-season setbacks, and key updates are weeks away.
Gary Anderson: It had a troubled test – that means it knows at least some of its problems before the season starts. It will need to find a workaround and quickly, otherwise it will let points chances disappear early in the season.
WHICH TEAM-MATE PAIRING WILL EXPLODE FIRST?
Scott Mitchell-Malm: Alpine’s. They’ll collide at some point.
Gary Anderson: Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly. They have history, it will only take one spark to reignite it.
Edd Straw: Alpine’s. There’s a lot of history between Ocon and Gasly and given they are also likely to be evenly matched, their paths are going to cross on track enough to light the Alpine blue touch paper.
Ben Anderson: Everyone will say Gasly/Ocon – but I reckon Sergio Perez/Max Verstappen is potentially more volatile, especially if the Verstappen camp gets another whiff of crafty foul play from Perez.
Dre Harrison: None – I think the Gasly/Ocon pairing at Alpine has a rivalry that seems massively overplayed and can’t see an obvious blow-up elsewhere.
WILL F1 GET ANY MORE EQUAL?
Ben Anderson: The midfield will be more competitive, and the overall spread narrower, but I don’t see the current top three being broken up any time soon.
Scott Mitchell-Malm: It’ll break into four groups, with closer gaps between them. The top three, Aston Martin/Alpine, an upper midfield and a lower midfield.
Edd Straw: A little. Testing suggested that the competitive spread overall should tighten up a little despite Red Bull’s ominous form.
Dre Harrison: Aston Martin might close the gap a tad if it performs to its optimum, but I fear The Big Three are still exactly that.
Gary Anderson: It would be nice to think that with 20 cars they could all qualify one tenth of a second apart, meaning that the grid would be covered by two seconds. We are not there yet and probably never will be, but it’s close though.
WAS ANYONE SANDBAGGING IN TESTING?
Asked by Alan Wickers/@thirdisorange
Ben Anderson: Red Bull definitely. Ferrari never turned the ‘new’ engine up as far as I could tell. Mercedes probably ran closer to W14’s true potential (to test the bouncing etc) but still on the heavy side. I think Alpine also held something back.
Gary Anderson: I think Ferrari was keeping its powder dry, and its drivers were both fast and consistent.
Scott Mitchell-Malm: Alpine held back the most. I’m expecting it to vault into top 10. If it doesn’t, something’s seriously wrong.
Dre Harrison: Red Bull. Which terrifies me. Alpine I think underplayed its hand too.
Edd Straw: No one was sandbagging as a priority. Sandbagging in testing is talked about too much. Teams are focused on their programmes and there is a cost to doing flat-out, low-fuel runs. But that does mean teams like Alpine (slowest in testing) are slower than they look – but not because they have prioritised hiding their speed.
HOW WILL PIASTRI DO AGAINST NORRIS?
Asked by Remy Bergsma
Ben Anderson: Relatively well if the car doesn’t completely bamboozle him. But it’s a very hard job for a rookie to go up against someone so good in a car and team that aren’t on a positive trajectory. Hopefully Piastri is made of strong stuff!
Gary Anderson: Piastri has come in with lots of media attention, some for the right reasons, most of it not. Norris is fast so he will be tough to beat. However if the car is not good, he could let his head drop and that would be Piastri’s big chance to pounce.
Dre Harrison: About the same as Ricciardo did. Only because I think Norris is a genuine freak who should be thinking bigger.
Scott Mitchell-Malm: He won’t match him, especially early on if the car is difficult. It’ll be more like Ricciardo’s first McLaren season.
Edd Straw: Very well, but with a caveat. Norris has kept on improving in F1 and despite largely plying his trade at the front of the midfield last year, he was doing great things with a tricky car. So doing ‘very well’ for Piastri doesn’t mean beating him.
