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If the cracks started to show at Red Bull earlier this season, Max Verstappen’s Sunday at the 2024 Italian Grand Prix proves there are now fissures forming in the once-dominant Formula 1 team.
Yet, there might be some light at the end of the tunnel as team principal Christian Horner claims Red Bull now understands why its particular problems have led to such a severe loss of form.
Verstappen said the car was “not driveable anymore” after a bafflingly poor qualifying session in which he secured seventh ahead of Sergio Perez.
Bucking the trend by starting on hard tyres, his first pitstop lasted a very un-Red Bull 6.2 seconds. Red Bull then committed him to a two-stop strategy by switching to more hards for his second stint and ended up sixth at the chequered flag.
His race was made harder by a loss of engine power throughout the race caused by clipping, when the full energy of the battery is not deployed. But that wasn't Verstappen's main worry after the race...
“The car is undriveable, it's a massive balance problem that we have and it's not only over one lap, but also in the race,” he reiterated on Sunday.
Moreover, Verstappen declared that fighting for both championships is “not realistic” right now - even though he still leads the drivers' standings by 62 points. And Horner echoed that stance after the race.
“With the pace that we had today, both championships absolutely will be under pressure for sure, so we have to turn the situation around very quickly," Horner admitted.
Horner did however offer analysis that (somewhat) contrasted the confused situation that Red Bull found itself in on Saturday, when Perez likened the car’s unresponsiveness to that of a “boat”.
“I think this circuit has exposed the deficiencies that we have in the car versus last year,” Horner said.
“As we’ve pushed the package harder, it’s exposed the issue.”
Red Bull’s car issues mainly seem to revolve around the RB20’s understeer through corners - although it’s not that simple.
The front and rear of the car do not seem to be working together, making the car’s behaviour unpredictable - which led to a moment in qualifying at Monza where Perez collected gravel and, in turn, cost the following Verstappen time.
Those issues were not down to Red Bull’s lack of track-specific updates at Monza as Horner asserted.
“I think 100% it's balance,” he said. “We haven't got a connection between front and rear. Max can't lean on the rear on the way into the corner, or Checo.
“And you then end up compensating for that. Then you create understeer, and it's on such a fine line.
“You could see flashes of it like in Q2. As soon as he [Verstappen] got a bit of balance, bang, a laptime was there. But theoretically, putting new tyres on should always be quicker than old tyres, and we went four-tenths slower.”
Verstappen left Monza with his advantage of 70 points cut to 62 points while Red Bull’s constructors’ title lead stands at just eight points.
This was a far cry from the sixth round of the season in Miami four months ago, when Red Bull seemed on its way to another comfortable championship win, despite Lando Norris having taken his first grand prix victory there - which somewhat relied on the timing of a safety car.
Verstappen did however leave Miami having noted some understeer in his Red Bull, while also urging his team to execute everything perfectly if it was to continue its winning form.
And in Monza, Verstappen was frustrated that his warnings had not been acted upon.
“I said a lot, and now it’s up to the team to come with a lot of changes to the car because we basically went from a very dominant car to an undriveable car in the space of what, six to eight months?
“That is very weird for me. We need to really turn the car upside down.”
Horner confirmed that the balance issues had been spotted as early as Austin last October, and were perhaps more visible in Miami this year. But those issues have been exacerbated by Red Bull’s continued development.
“I think there were some of these issues early in the year, even when we were winning races by 20 seconds. I think that recent upgrades, whilst they put load on the car, it’s disconnected the front and rear," he said.
The floor that was brought to Perez’s car in Hungary, A/B tested there, and then fitted to Verstappen’s car in Italy, could be one of the problem areas. Although, Horner said his team is taking a holistic approach to diagnosing the RB20’s issues.
“You've got to look at all aspects of the car. There's a balance issue with the car that isn't allowing the drivers to commit to corner entry.
“As soon as you calm down the rear, you compromise the front. Then you end up with understeer, and you kill your tyres that way. What we really need to do is get the balance right.”
Horner also admitted that there is a correlation problem at Red Bull, where the findings from the windtunnel do not necessarily line up with the findings from the track.
“When you have that, it means you can't trust your tools. So then you have to go back to track data and previous experience,” he said.
Yet he added: “The windtunnel has its limitations, which is why we've invested in a new one. But it's what we've got, and we have to make use of it. I don't think the windtunnel is the reason behind where we are.”
While other teams have converged on - or eclipsed as is the case of McLaren - Red Bull, the defending champion has found itself hitting the limit of what it can get out of this design of car.
Horner pointed out McLaren's “simpler” design relative to Red Bull.
“Perhaps we’ve gone a little too complex and perhaps we need to simplify a few things," he admitted.
Simply adding downforce will not make the problem go away, and it’s not as simple as fixing the issue for Azerbaijan or Singapore.
Verstappen seemed resigned to his fate on Sunday: “It doesn’t matter, with how we are at the moment, we are bad everywhere. We need a lot of changes.”
Horner meanwhile offered a more optimistic outlook.
“The most important thing is understanding the issue and then I think there are certain fixes that potentially can be introduced," he promised. "Perhaps not to resolve the whole issue but to address some of it.
“We've now got a two-week period before Baku and Singapore, and then we have, if you like, another mini-break where we can work in between Singapore and Austin. So this time now is crucial.”
For Red Bull, this has been a tumultuous year. It began the season surrounded by a storm caused by allegations against Horner. Amid that disorder, Adrian Newey took the decision to leave Red Bull at the end of this season after 19 years.
Newey wasn’t solely responsible for Red Bull’s success, nor is his departure solely responsible for this difficult period, but he has had a major impact on the team.
“I've always said that I would have liked for Adrian to stay, always. But it's not about that now because last year we had a great car, which was the most dominant car ever, and we basically turned it into a monster, so we have to turn it around,” said Verstappen.
Horner asserted: “One man’s input can never be highlighted so quickly… Adrian was plugged in up until Friday of Miami, so there's no way it would have impacted [us] so quickly.
“He'd be working with all the same people. Formula 1 is a team sport. It's a team issue, and the team will come up with a resolution.”
Red Bull has found itself in a situation no one could have foreseen before the start of this season.
Currently witnessing its championship lead erode at a rapid rate, the once-dominant squad risks losing both titles and - in future seasons - even more.
