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Red Bull’s Daniel Ricciardo gambit has failed. But not so badly that he deserves the current uncertainty around his immediate future, let alone being dropped with six Formula 1 races to go in 2024.
Ricciardo has been underwhelming at Red Bull’s second team, against his own expectations and his employer’s.
He was brought in to be a long-term alternative for Red Bull Racing, a back-up should Sergio Perez continue to struggle. Ricciardo himself had that dream return in mind and thought he would prove he could still operate at the front in F1 after two increasingly tough years at McLaren left him on the sidelines.
Unfortunately, Ricciardo’s been fine, nothing more. The occasional impressive peak - like fourth in the Miami sprint, his overall Canada weekend, and Hungary qualifying – and the occasional anonymous weekend have cancelled each other out, leaving behind a string of slightly inconsistent performances and slightly disappointing results.
But that’s not been drastically different to Yuki Tsunoda, given RB’s competitiveness has dipped in the midfield and its development has been patchy at best. And although Singapore qualifying was a return to the kind of nose-bloodying results against his team-mate Ricciardo had pretty much banished, it would be extremely harsh to suggest Ricciardo’s form has been so poor he needs to be dropped.
And yet, that is what Red Bull seems to be considering. Red Bull chiefs Christian Horner and Helmut Marko, and Ricciardo’s immediate team boss Laurent Mekies, have all had ample opportunities this weekend to categorically state Ricciardo will not be dropped in the September/October four-week gap between races.
They have opted not to do so. They have almost done the opposite – leaving the door gaping wide to drop Ricciardo for Liam Lawson.
There might be a semblance of logic to that. If Ricciardo’s time is up at the end of the year and Lawson’s the future, then there is some merit in cracking on. However, the logic doesn't seem so clear cut. Not least because there's talk of needing to evaluate Lawson or get him in the car to get some answers. But what more could Red Bull need to know about the driver who already stepped in for Ricciardo last season and performed strongly?
That hints at further, wider uncertainty. Maybe Lawson's going to get a shot in the RB to make a case for Sergio Perez's Red Bull seat in 2025? It is all rather murky.
Performance-wise, it makes little sense. RB’s clinging on to sixth in the championship and Singapore qualifying’s the first time in months Ricciardo’s missed an obvious opportunity to perform better. This is not a Logan Sargeant-esque situation where Williams finally had to give up on a driver nowhere near the level required.
There is not a clear-cut performance reason to drop Ricciardo now. Or to think Lawson would come in and be an immediate, major upgrade.
If it’s about preparing for the future, that’s fine. But if that were the case why hesitate? The decision should already be made. Why have such uncertainty hanging over Ricciardo? Why expose him to a weekend of awkward questions, put a cloud over him, and potentially let him run his last race…without him actually knowing it?
A driver of his stature, one who has given Red Bull a lot, deserves more than such a sad ending, even if his career is coming to an end. His performances do not merit the embarrassment of being canned mid-season.
It all points to being a consequence of the wider Red Bull driver confusion, which is an argument for another time. Ricciardo may, justifiably, have no big future in Red Bull.
But for the narrative to have reached this point is unbecoming and unfair, even by the harsh standards of in-season driver changes.